The New England Patriots (+600 to win Super Bowl 54) will play what seems to be a glorified practice game for the playoffs against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The Patriots destroyed Miami in Week 2, but can the Dolphins put up a better performance in the rematch? Going into the game the sportsbook favors the home team by 14.5-points.
Betting on the Miami Dolphins (12-3)
Maybe the Dolphins don’t want the no. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft as much what most people think. Case in point: they just defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime last Sunday, 38-35 — in overtime. The win over the Bengals was also proof that from time to time, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick can unleash magic on the field. Fitzmagic had 419 passing yards and four touchdowns against just an interception on 31-of-52 completions. Fitzpatrick has been in the zone of late. He has 698 passing yards and six touchdowns against just an interception in his last two starts. The Dolphins got blown out into smithereens in Week 2’s 43-0 loss at home to the Patriots in which Josh Rosen and Fitzgerald combined to throw four picks, but the Dolphins have gotten better and more confident ever since.
The Dolphins, who are averaging 18.6 points per game, are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 outings.
Betting on the New England Patriots (4-11)
The Patriots are coming off a 24-17 home win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 16. The offense did just enough for the Patriots and the defense took care of the rest, which is a familiar narrative for the reigning Super Bowl champions this season. Tom Brady went 26 for 33 for 271 passing yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions, while Sony Michel led the ground attack with 96 rushing yards on 21 carries. The Patriots were too much for Miami on offense and defense in the two teams’ previous meeting. Brady went 20 for 28 for 264 yards and two touchdowns, while Michel had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Although the Dolphins have improved significantly since the last meeting, the Patriots should be able to take care of business with ease, especially on offense, as Miami remains last in the NFL in scoring defense and total defense with 31.3 points and 400.8 total yards allowed per game.
The Patriots are 2-0 ATS in their last two games.
The Patriots win, 33-16.