By – J. T. Olsen – Bucs Report
The NFL regular season is over and we are now left with just 14 teams standing in the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of those teams who still remain and are now turning their sights on the ultimate prize. They are now just four wins away from being Super Bowl champions.
Their first opponent will be the Washington Commanders who come to town for a Sunday night wild card game. The Bucs are familiar with this team as the two played each other in week one of this season. However, both teams have grown and evolved a great deal since that time.
After their week one loss Washington went on to win 12 games this year, which is two more than the Buccaneers. Obviously this Commanders team has a lot more in the tank than the 17 point loss to the Bucs showed earlier this year. But is it enough to pull off the upset or are the Bucs still the better team? I break it down in this Wild Card edition of Skeleton Keys to victory.
Pound The Rock
Playoff football is a tougher and more physical brand of football. The intensity level goes up and everyone is fighting for everything they can get. It’s the time of year where need to be able to line up from the man across from you and impose your will.
The Bucs have proven that they can do that this year with their offensive line. This has been one of the best run blocking units in the NFL this year and they are as physical and nasty as anybody. When you talk about tone setters then guys like Luke Goedeke, Graham Barton and Cody Mauch should come to mind.
They have helped lead rookie Bucky Irving to a 1,000 yards rushing season and the team overall to be 4th in total rushing yards this year. There is no doubt that this Bucs rushing attack is one of the best in the game and that they will need to lean on it in the postseason.
This week in particular, the Buccaneers need to run the ball. Washington ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed and is tied for 30th in rushing yards allowed per carry. The Commanders weakness plays into the Bucs strength and Tampa Bay has to take advantage of that.
Big Boys Set The Tone
We know Washington has a great running game, ranking 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards. A big part of that is rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. He is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL and he has run for nearly 900 yards this season.
However, Daniels certainly isn’t the only ball carrier that deserves attention. Running back Brian Robinson has run for 799 yards and 8 touchdowns this year in 13 starts. He is the physical between the tackles element to this Commanders offense that they will need to rely on in the postseason.
Fortunately, the Bucs are equipped to handle Robinson and his north and south running style. Tampa Bay comes into this game with perhaps the best duo of defensive tackles in the NFL in Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey. These two, Vea in particular, can control the line of scrimmage and take away the space that Robinson needs to operate.
This will allow the back seven to focus in more on taking away Daniels. Vea and Kancey should take a lot of pressure off those around them and make everyone else better by clogging up the line of scrimmage. If the Bucs defense is going to slow down the Commanders, it will start with these two having a big day.
Force Their Playmakers To Make Plays
The last time these two teams played, their leading receiver was Austin Eckler who led the way with 52 yards. Among wide receivers in this game, Luke McCaffrey had the most receiving yards with just 18. In short, the Commander’s weapons aren’t especially dangerous.
It is worth noting that Terry McLaurin has had an excellent season. He ranks 15th in receiving yards and 2nd in receiving touchdowns with 13. He has always been a very underrated player and is now finally starting to shine with improved quarterback play.
Outside of that, there aren’t a lot of pass catchers who scare me. Zach Ertz is a solid, although not dynamic weapon at tight end. Olamide Zachheaus has been a role player for his career, but is the number two receiver in Washington with just 506 yards and 3 touchdowns. In terms of pass catchers, this isn’t exactly the Greatest Show on Turf.
With that said, the Bucs have let worse quarterbacks with worse weapons pick them apart at times this year. They have been carved up over the middle of the field when sitting in soft zone coverage. That can’t happen in this game. Todd Bowles needs to force the issues and force these playmakers to make plays. Let his secondary out talent the Washington receivers.
Overall
Make no mistake, the Commanders have earned their place in the playoffs and are a better team now than what we saw in week one. With that said, the Bucs are still the better team. Tampa’s offense is more versatile and more dangerous and the Bucs have the pieces in place to slow down what Washington does best.
Things should only get better for the Bucs defense as star safety Antione Winfield Jr. is trending to return from injury this week. The addition of Kancey, who the Bucs didn’t have in week one, only adds to their advantage in the trenches. Things are never easy in the playoffs, but the Bucs should control this game.
Prediction
Washington – 27
Buccaneers – 34
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