New England enters the AFC Championship with momentum. The Patriots defeated Houston 28‑16 in the Divisional Round. Drake Maye delivered three touchdown passes and one interception. The Patriots improved to 14‑3 and remain unbeaten on the road this season. Their offense ranks among the league’s best in scoring and efficiency.
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New England’s defense also continues to shine. The unit ranks top‑10 in scoring, rushing, and passing defense. The Patriots trust their balance. They believe their physical style travels well in January.
Denver Faces Quarterback Crisis After Bo Nix Injury
Denver’s playoff run changed dramatically. Starting quarterback Bo Nix suffered a fractured ankle in the win over Buffalo. His season is over. Jarrett Stidham now starts for Denver. He has limited recent game action. He has not thrown a regular‑season pass since 2023.
Denver still owns a strong roster. The Broncos finished 14‑3 and earned the AFC’s top seed. Their defense remains tough at home. Their offense must adjust quickly.
Key Matchups Will Decide the Game
New England must protect Maye. Denver’s pass rush thrives at home. The Patriots want clean pockets and controlled drives.
Denver must shorten the game. Analysts expect a conservative approach with Stidham. The Broncos need long drives and minimal mistakes.
The Patriots hold a recent edge. They won the last two meetings and scored 67 total points in those games.
Betting Outlook Favors New England
Oddsmakers list New England as a 4.5‑ to 5‑point favorite. The Patriots are also strong moneyline favorites. The over/under sits at 42.5 points. Analysts expect a controlled, defensive game.
Final Thoughts
This matchup features two 14‑3 teams with different trajectories. New England brings stability and star quarterback play. Denver brings home‑field advantage and uncertainty at quarterback. The winner advances to Super Bowl LX.
