We are set for a battle of the underdogs in Phoenix Saturday night as both Ole Miss and Miami upset their quarter-final opponents. Miami was able to take down Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog. Ole Miss beat Georgia as a 5.5-point underdog. Both are considered unlikely to be here, yet the least likely matchup is the one we are gearing up for. While Miami was the less likely of the two, they answered a lot of questions about their identity going forward…
Why Miami will win a National Title
PHYSICALITY. Plain and simple. Miami had an argument for the best lines of scrimmage in the country entering the year. But those in-season losses to Louisville and SMU made us forget who they were. All of their wounds were self-inflicted. Penalties, ill-timed turnovers, and lots of turnovers at times all played a factor in Miami’s losses.
But they have found their identity once again in the College Football Playoffs. Their penalties are down, and they have won the turnover battle in both of their CFP matchups. Which has allowed them to flex the talent that they have on this roster.
The lines of scrimmage have gotten a lot of shine thus far. But do not let that overshadow their defensive backs and skill position players, who have won them football games with explosive plays. When I think about that Texas A&M game, I think of Malachi Toney’s touchdown and Bryce Fitzgerald’s 2 interceptions. When I think of the Ohio State game, I think of Keionte Scott’s pick-6.
They are an extremely well-rounded team whose play style has mirrored that of Saban’s early teams at Alabama. Miami has not been asking Carson Beck to do a whole lot, mainly because they haven’t needed him to. They have won games on the ground and through their defense. However, this Ole Miss team might be the offense that could derail that play style…
How Ole Miss can ruin Miami’s homecoming
Ole Miss is going to have to start by sustaining drives. This is not going to be an easy task against this Miami front 4. Ruben Bain and the boys are going to create interior pressure at a much higher rate than Georgia could. That will, in turn, allow Miami to have more effective containment of Trinidad Chambliss. Back to sustaining drives, though, Ole Miss’s longest scoring drive was in the first quarter against Georgia when they took 4:27 off the clock and kicked a field goal.
Ole Miss also needs to create turnovers and hope that Miami commits a higher number of penalties than they have in the first two games of the playoffs. This doesn’t exactly bode well for Ole Miss, seeing as how they are T-80th in the country in turnover margin and T-75th in penalties per game.
So what does go in Ole Miss’s favor? Trinidad Chambliss is miles ahead of Julian Sayin at this point in their careers. As a whole, Ole Miss’s offense is a better, more complete unit than Ohio State’s offense was this year. But all totaled they key factor in this game for Ole Miss is Kewan Lacy. He has been one of the best running backs in college football this year and will have to be on Thursday night if the Rebels are going to win. The best way to slow down a great pass rush is with a good running game. This will also lead to balance on offense and longer drives overall for the Rebels.
Ole Miss’s defense needs to have a bend but don’t break mentality. It is what won them the Sugar Bowl. Twice, Georgia was in the red zone against the Rebels and came away with three. Meanwhile, Ole Miss’s offense was perfect on its red zone possessions against Georgia. A perfect 4/4. Those trends will need to continue for the Rebels if the dream season is to live on.
Final Thoughts+ Prediction/Betting lines
As much as I would love for Ole Miss to win a National Title and really stick it to Lane Kiffin and the ginormous yapper he has on him. I do not see how they will be able to hang with the physicality of Miami for 60 minutes. I think the people of South Florida will be feeling like it’s 2001 all over again and right some wrong that occurred the last time they played in the Fiesta Bowl.
Prediction: Miami
Line: Miami -3, Over/Under is 52.5
