By: Matthew Weatherby
Alabama and Oklahoma are set to square off on Friday night in Norman to kick off the 2025-26 edition of the College Football Playoffs.
Both of these teams enter the playoffs with more questions than answers. But, for both sides, those questions stem from injury problems that have plagued both teams in the latter half of this season. For Alabama, though, one question has been resolved, and that is whether Kalen Deboer will still be their coach for the future. While Kalen recommitted himself to the Tide on Sunday, that will do them no good in terms of the true key on Friday, who makes it off the injury report.
Injuries
For Alabama, they are just hoping to get some guys back on offense. Jam Miller, Josh Cuevas, and Kam Dewberry all missed the SEC Championship. A game where Alabama’s offense was only able to score 7 points and put up a total of -3 rushing yards against Georgia. Getting some continuity back on the offensive side of the football for Alabama is going to be necessary against an Oklahoma defense that ranked first in the SEC in total defense this year. Alabama is also hopeful to get standout D-lineman LT Overton back from injury after he missed the SEC title game. (It must also be noted that there is a RUMOR going around regarding a potential Ty Simpson injury that he has been dealing with over the last couple of weeks)
On Oklahoma’s side of things, they hope to get R. Mason Thomas back from injury. Prior to his injury against Tennessee, Thomas had totaled 6.5 sacks over 8 games, along with 2 forced fumbles. His play over 8 games was good enough for him to be voted to the All-SEC First Team Defense.
I do have one more thing on Oklahoma’s injuries. What about John Mateer? After his hand injury against Auburn, the Oklahoma offense has appeared handicapped. Mateer has only thrown for more than 225 yards in a game once since the injury, and that was their regular-season finale against LSU, where he also threw 3 interceptions. But I have a theory regarding Mateer’s health. His hand needed time to heal after the surgery, and that was something he was’t really afforded. The amount of time needed for the hand to heal was supposed to be a couple of weeks. The Sooners will have had 3 weeks off between games come Friday night. Was this the amount of time needed for Mateer’s hand to heal?
On the field
I talked about those Alabama injuries earlier, and they are important because the version of Alabama’s offense everyone saw in Atlanta will not be enough if it shows up in Norman, Oklahoma, on Friday night. The pieces that they hope to get back should lead to that. Jam Miller is a much more well rounded Running Back than the guys sitting behind him. But where his value lies is in his pass protection. It was something that Alabama struggled with in the SEC Championship. In addition, Josh Cuevas and Kam Dewberry will also be helpful in protecting Ty Simpson. Cuevas’s being back will have a big impact on Alabama in 3rd down situations. He was Ty Simpson’s safety blanket all year.
Bama’s offense will be in better shape health-wise, but will it be enough? All outside factors have shifted away from Alabama in this game. They will not have had the same amount of rest that Oklahoma has had. Maybe that is a good or bad thing; you never really know when it comes to longer rest for teams, but when you look at Alabama’s injury report, you would assume that fairs better for the Sooners. Not to mention, Oklahoma will be playing at home. A place where they beat the Crimson Tide 24-3 last season. For Alabama even if they get those guys back to full health will it matter?
Oklahoma’s defense, by metrics, is better than Georgia’s. People also seem to forget that, prior to Alabama losing those guys on offense to injury, they still were not a particularly efficient or effective running team. They also have not been able to stretch the ball downfield very much this year. That is an area where you need Ryan Williams to step up. He has not been the same guy that he was last year. And without the threat of explosives, the Alabama offense will then be tasked with driving the ball down the field consistently against this Oklahoma defense. When you’re asked to do that without a consistent running game, your margin for error is razor-thin.
Why Oklahoma could Roll
If Oklahoma’s offense finds itself after the break, I do not think that this game will be particularly close. People talk about Alabama’s issues after their injuries, but they were always present for Alabama. The injuries they suffered just exposed them to a greater extent. For Oklahoma, John Mateer was heisman candidate prior to his injury. All you need from Mateer and this offense on Friday is 2-3 good drives. 17 points could be enough to win this game for Oklahoma.
This game will obviously be about the defenses, but I believe that Oklahoma’s offense has a higher ceiling than Alabama’s coming out of the break. As for Bama, this is a game where they have to win the margins. Something they did not do against Oklahoma earlier in the year, or the last time we saw them against Georgia. If Alabama were to win this game, it would be because it also won the turnover battle, time of possession, and average starting field position.
Prediction + Betting/Analytics
Prediction: Oklahoma
Spread: Alabama -1.5
According to ESPN Analytics, Alabama has a 50.9% chance to win on Friday.
