Man Utd out Ro16, Arsenal make semis, and Kane agony in final with Bayern
- Manchester City have a 61% chance of winning the Champions League
- Arsenal are tipped to go as far as the semi-final stage, but will be knocked out by one of City or Bayern Munich
- Manchester United will make it to the Round of 16, but won’t progress to the quarter-final stage
- Newcastle will also make it as far as the first knockout stage, although they do have a 31% chance of finishing third in their group and dropping into the Europa League
A Champions League Super Computer has given Manchester City a 61% chance of retaining the trophy they clinched back in June in Istanbul.
Data analysts at Best Gambling Sites crunched the raw data points 1000 times to determine as accuarate a prediction as possible, to provide the most statistically sound forecast as possible.
According to the numbers, Manchester City are the overwhelming favourites to lift the famous trophy again as they won 611 times out of 1000.
Unfortunately, their fellow Premier League sides were less fortunate in the competition according to the data, with Arsenal given just a 5.3% chance of going all the way. In fact, they had a 38% chance of reaching the semi-finals, before ultimately being defeated by one of Manchester City or Bayern Munich.
Harry Kane left Tottenham for the German champions in order to taste silverware, but the data suggests a second Champions League final defeat looms large for the England captain. Looking at the numbers, we can see the qualification percentages of every side in the competition, with a third placed finish for Newcastle imminent.
Champions League Complete simulation and progression chances (%)
| Team | Group | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Ro16 | QF | SF | F | W |
| Man City | G | 97.10% | 2.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 97.40% | 84.60% | 77.30% | 61.10% |
| Bayern Munich | A | 83.70% | 16.20% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 99.90% | 80.20% | 53.80% | 37.60% | 13.20% |
| Real Madrid | C | 78.10% | 21.50% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 99.60% | 79.20% | 63.50% | 30.30% | 10.30% |
| Arsenal | B | 93.70% | 5.80% | 0.50% | 0.00% | 99.50% | 91.40% | 37.90% | 21.90% | 5.30% |
| Barcelona | H | 91.90% | 7.70% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 99.60% | 88.50% | 14.10% | 8.10% | 3.40% |
| PSG | F | 63.70% | 22.60% | 9.90% | 3.80% | 86.30% | 60.30% | 41.10% | 7.10% | 2.90% |
| Atletico Madrid | E | 85.10% | 12.80% | 1.80% | 0.30% | 97.90% | 80.80% | 35.80% | 5.00% | 1.50% |
| Inter Milan | D | 68.90% | 25.90% | 4.90% | 0.30% | 94.80% | 68.40% | 20.40% | 4.40% | 1.00% |
| Man Utd | A | 16.30% | 80.80% | 2.80% | 0.10% | 97.10% | 19.70% | 7.60% | 3.00% | 0.80% |
| Newcastle | F | 19.60% | 35.20% | 31.00% | 14.20% | 54.80% | 21.80% | 11.70% | 1.70% | 0.40% |
| Sevilla | B | 5.10% | 57.20% | 26.90% | 10.80% | 62.30% | 6.80% | 0.70% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| Galatasaray | A | 0.00% | 2.70% | 73.80% | 23.50% | 2.70% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FC Copenhagen | A | 0.00% | 0.30% | 23.30% | 76.40% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Lens | B | 0.30% | 13.60% | 32.50% | 53.60% | 13.90% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSV | B | 0.90% | 23.40% | 40.10% | 35.60% | 24.30% | 1.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Napoli | C |
…
