Athlon Sports projects USF as the 13th best team in the ACC but it could be a good first year in the conference for FAU projected to be 5th.

Sports Talk Florida

July 25, 2023

American Athletic Conference 2023 Predictions

be sure to subscribe to the best news on college sports – Athlon Sports. Here are Steven Lassan predictions and ranks all 14 teams in AAC for this fall:

1. Tulane
Exceeding last year’s 12-win season and No. 9 final ranking in the Associated Press poll won’t be easy for coach Willie Fritz. The Green Wave will be tested early with matchups against South Alabama and Ole Miss in non-conference play, but their biggest threat in the AAC (UTSA) visits New Orleans in late November. Quarterback Michael Pratt returns after accounting for 3,488 total yards and 37 overall scores last year. He’s entrenched among the nation’s top signal-callers, and the junior will be counted on even more with running back Tyjae Spears (1,581 yards) off to the NFL. A collection of backs could replace Spears, with Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (333 yards) likely to start. Pratt is also working behind one of the AAC’s top offensive lines, but his receiving corps will be retooled after Shae Wyatt and Duece Watts finished their eligibility. New defensive coordinator Shiel Wood inherits a solid foundation from a group that limited opposing offenses to just five yards a play last year. The biggest concerns for Wood rest at linebacker with the departure of Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams, along with the secondary where four key players must be replaced.

2. UTSA
Quarterback Frank Harris is back (333.2 total yards a game in ’22) and that’s enough for UTSA to contend for the league title in its AAC debut. But with a 23-5 mark over the last two years, and 16 returning starters, the Roadrunners are thinking New Year’s Six bowl this fall. Zakhari Franklin’s transfer to Ole Miss was a blow to the receiving corps, but the cupboard is far from bare here with Joshua Cephus and De’Corian Clark back on the outside. Harris is also handing off to a rising star in Kevorian Barnes and working behind an experienced offensive line. The only concern for UTSA’s offense is how it handles transition to new play-caller Justin Burke. The Roadrunners are loaded on defense, bringing back seven starters after holding teams to 5.5 yards a snap in ’22.

3. SMU
With a favorable schedule (no Tulane or UTSA), a rising star quarterback in Preston Stone, and a handful of impact additions from the transfer portal, SMU has the pieces in place to make the AAC title game in ’23. The departure of receiver Rashee Rice from an offense that led the conference in scoring (37.2) is the biggest concern for coach Rhett Lashlee. However, the arrival of TCU transfer Jordan Hudson adds another playmaker to a solid group of weapons. Additionally, the Mustangs reeled in five offensive linemen with Power 5 experience and a potential starting running back (Jaylan Knighton, Miami) from the portal. SMU has the firepower to push both Tulane and UTSA for the top spot in the conference, but Lashlee needs marked improvement on defense after this unit allowed 33.8 points a game last year.

4. Memphis
The Tigers have played in three consecutive bowl games under coach Ryan Silverfield, but there’s pressure to elevate this program with just an 11-13 mark in AAC play in that span. The changing membership of the AAC should work in Memphis’ favor in ’23, especially with Silverfield returning one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Seth Henigan (3,571 yards and 22 TDs). Old Dominion transfer Blake Watson is a big-time pickup for the backfield, but Henigan’s receiving corps needs a couple of transfers to step up right away with the departure of the team’s top four targets from ’22. Five starters return from a defense that fared well on a per-play basis (5.3) but allowed too many points a contest (29.3). Silverfield hopes a handful of transfers provide instant help at all three levels in ’23.

5. FAU
The pieces are in place for FAU to surprise in new coach Tom Herman’s debut in Boca Raton. Former Nebraska and Texas signal-caller Casey Thompson was a huge, post-spring pickup to add to an offense that already featured one of the AAC’s top backfields. Three starters provide a good foundation up front, but Herman needs to identify a few more playmakers at receiver. The defense (6.03 yards a snap allowed in ’22) also has room to improve under new play-caller Roc Bellantoni. With safety Teja Young transferring to Ole Miss, FAU is down to six returning starters on this side of the ball. Lineman Evan Anderson returns as the unit’s top player for ’23.

6. East Carolina
The Pirates are coming off their best season (8-5) under coach Mike Houston but contending for the AAC title in ’23 won’t be easy. Quarterback Holton Ahlers, running back Keaton Mitchell, and receivers Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson have all departed after helping ECU average 32.5 points a contest last fall. Only one starter returns along the offensive line. Mason Garcia is slated to replace Ahlers under center, but he will be challenged by Alex Flinn in the fall. With the offense in transition, the Pirates may need to lean a little more on its defense in the early going of ’23. This unit brings back six starters, but this group allowed 6.1 yards per play and must replace standout cornerback Malik Fleming.

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7. North Texas
New coach Eric Morris is a Texas native, played his college ball at Texas Tech and spent time as a FCS head coach at Incarnate Word (2018-21). All of that experience, plus the ties to the Lone Star State, make the former Red Raider a perfect fit in Denton. Morris’ background on offense will help the Mean Green maintain (33.8 points a game last year) a potent attack, with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers is likely to start at quarterback. Despite the loss of Jyaire Shorter (Auburn) to transfer, the receiving corps has weapons for Rogers, and the backfield is deep with Ayo Adeyi, Ikaika Ragsdale, and Oscar Adaway III returning. Defensive improvement is likely to decide just how high this team can climb in its first year in the AAC. The Mean Green gave up 6.1 yards a snap and allowed nearly 200 yards (197.8 rushing yards a contest) last season. New coordinator Matt Caponi inherits eight returning starters but will miss linebacker KD Davis.

8. Temple
The Owls won only three games in coach Stan Drayton’s debut, but there were signs of progress by the end of November. Led by the rise of quarterback E.J. Warner in his first year on campus, Temple defeated USF 54-28 in early November and later lost to Houston and East Carolina by one score. With a full offseason to work as the starter, look for Warner to emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the AAC, especially with a loaded receiving corps that features Amad Anderson and tight ends David Martin-Robinson and Jordan Smith. The defense allowed too many points in league play (36.4 in the AAC) and struggled versus the run (192.6 yards a game). With seven starters back, this unit should take a step forward on the stat sheet. However, standout edge rusher Layton Jordan (18.5 TFL in ’22) transferred to Wisconsin.

9. Navy
It’s a new era in Annapolis after Brian Newberry was promoted to head coach to replace long-time leader Ken Niumatalolo. Under Newberry’s watch, Navy’s defenses were consistently solid and finished second in the AAC in fewest points allowed in ’19. And with nine starters back, the defense should be the strength of Newberry’s first team. The Midshipmen won’t change too much on offense, but new coordinator Grant Chestnut has to get this unit on track after it finished last in the AAC in yards per play (4.7) and scoring (21.9 points a game). Sophomore Tedros Gleaton has yet to attempt a pass at Navy but topped the post-spring depth chart at quarterback. Fullback Daba Fofana (769 yards) also returns. In a scheduling break, the Midshipmen won’t play arguably the top two teams – Tulane and UTSA – in the AAC.

10. Tulsa
New coach Kevin Wilson’s background on offense should mesh well with the returning personnel. The Golden Hurricane feature a rising star in Braylon Braxton at quarterback, and running back Anthony Watkins (634 yards in ’21) returns after missing ’22 due to injury. Braxton has weapons at receiver in the form of Malachai Jones and all-purpose threat Braylin Presley but needs more help from the offensive line after it allowed 45 sacks last season. Standout left tackle Dillon Wade transferred to Auburn this offseason. Transfers hit Tulsa’s defense hard as well. Linebacker Justin Wright and lineman Anthony Goodlow both departed for Oklahoma State, dropping this unit down to just five returning starters. Safety Kendarin Ray is among the AAC’s top returning defenders, and Wilson dipped into the portal for help with four defensive backs set to join the team.

11. UAB
The Blazers might be the toughest team to project in the AAC. New coach Trent Dilfer has plenty to prove in his first year as a collegiate coach, and the roster was hit hard by losses, including quarterback Dylan Hopkins, running back DeWayne McBride, four starting offensive linemen, and several key cogs on defense. Jacob Zeno and Louisiana Tech transfer Landry Lyddy are expected to battle into the fall for the starting quarterback job. Although McBride will be missed, the ground attack should be in good shape still thanks to the return of Jermaine Brown. Cornerback Mac McWilliams, lineman Fish McWilliams, and safety Keondre Swoopes headline the returning talent for new coordinator Sione Ta’ufo’ou.

12. Rice
Last year’s bowl appearance was Rice’s first postseason trek since ’14, but the Owls have yet to record a winning mark under coach Mike Bloomgren (16-39 since ’18). However, the arrival of former Georgia and West Virginia signal-caller JT Daniels, along with the return of receiver Luke McCaffrey might be enough to get Rice to six wins in its first season in the AAC. The July transfer of Bradley Rozner was a setback for the Rice offense. Improvement on defense would certainly the bowl odds, as the Owls have work to do through the air (29 passing TDs allowed) and on the ground (seventh in C-USA last year). This unit also gave up 34.2 points per contest. Seven starters are back, giving coordinator Brian Smith reason for optimism at every level.

13. USF
There are no quick fixes for new coach Alex Golesh, who arrives in Tampa after helping Josh Heupel transform Tennessee’s offense into one of the best in college football over the last two years. The Bulls went 1-11 and failed to win an AAC game last year. Getting Golesh’s high-powered offense on track starts with finding a quarterback (likely Gerry Bohanon or Byrum Brown) and developing playmakers in a receiving corps that lost its two best players (Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn). Also, just one starter returns up front, but left tackle Donovan Jennings should be an all-conference performer. New defensive coordinator Todd Orlando brings back plenty of experience, but this unit surrendered 41.2 points a game and 7.4 yards a play last year.

14. Charlotte
The 49ers could struggle to beat last year’s win total (three), but this program won’t lack for intrigue in ’23. New coach Biff Poggi arrives in Charlotte after successful high school stints at Gilman School (1996-15) and Saint Frances Academy (2017-20) and two off-field stints at Michigan. Poggi hit the portal hard for help, as over 30 transfers are set to arrive in time for ’23. Former Michigan edge rusher Eyabi Okie should be a difference maker on defense for Poggi, but this unit has a lot of work to do after giving up 39.4 points a game last fall. Led by Shadrick Byrd (620 yards) and true freshman Durell Robinson, the 49ers should be able to generate a solid ground attack. However, three key receivers are gone, and uncertainty surrounds a quarterback position likely to feature Bethune-Cookman transfer Jalon Jones as the starter.