A CFP title game shaped by two very different journeys
The 2026 College Football Playoff Championship pairs two programs that reached the same destination by very different routes. Miami arrives at Hard Rock Stadium with a 13-2 record, hardened by close games, defensive battles, and a late-season surge that carried real edge. Indiana comes in 15-0, the only unbeaten team left standing, armed with the nation’s most efficient offense and a quarterback playing at a historic level. This is not just a contrast in styles. It is a clash between survival and dominance.
How Miami battled through the playoff gauntlet
Miami’s path to the title game was defined by resilience. The Hurricanes did not overwhelm opponents with style points. They won by controlling the line of scrimmage and squeezing games late. Their defense ranked top five nationally in scoring defense at 16.8 points per game and allowed just 4.9 yards per play. That unit carried Miami through a demanding playoff run that included wins over Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss.
Quarterback Carson Beck operated as a steady conductor rather than a headline act. Beck threw for 3,412 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on the season, completing 66 percent of his passes. He was especially effective off play action, where Miami averaged over 9.5 yards per attempt. Against Ole Miss in the semifinal, Beck did not force throws. He completed 21 of 30 passes, avoided turnovers, and leaned on a rushing attack that chewed clock and wore down the Rebels late.
Miami’s offense ranked just outside the top 25 in yards per game, but it finished top 10 in time of possession. That identity has allowed the Hurricanes to dictate tempo and keep high-powered opponents uncomfortable.
Indiana’s season of dominance and separation
Indiana’s run has been ruthless. Curt Cignetti’s team did not just win. It imposed itself. The Hoosiers averaged 44.6 points per game, ranked second nationally in total offense, and finished top five in both yards per play and third-down efficiency. Their playoff performances removed any remaining doubt. A 38-3 demolition of Alabama was followed by a 56-22 dismantling of Oregon that felt over by halftime.
At the center of it all is Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. Over the full season, Mendoza threw for 4,586 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions, while completing nearly 72 percent of his passes. In the two playoff games alone, he accounted for eight total touchdowns and posted a passer rating north of 200. His ability to process quickly has neutralized elite pass rushes and turned tight windows into routine throws.
Indiana is not one-dimensional. The Hoosiers averaged 5.6 yards per carry and ranked top 15 in rushing success rate. Defensively, they allowed just 18.2 points per game and forced turnovers on nearly 15 percent of opponent possessions. They are balanced, efficient, and ruthless when opponents make mistakes.
Key matchup factors that tilt the game
Miami’s defense will be the toughest Indiana has faced, but the numbers suggest Indiana is built to handle it. The Hoosiers averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt against top-25 defenses this season and scored at least 35 points in every game away from home. Mendoza’s mobility and decision-making limit negative plays, an area where Miami usually thrives.
On the other side, Miami’s offensive approach may struggle to keep pace. Indiana leads the nation in second-half scoring margin at plus 14.3 points per game. Falling behind by two scores forces Miami out of its comfort zone and puts pressure on Beck to win vertically, something Indiana’s secondary has been strong against all season.
Championship prediction
Miami is tough, disciplined, and deserving of its place here. But Indiana has been operating on a different level since October. The Hoosiers are faster on the perimeter, cleaner in execution, and far more explosive offensively. Over four quarters, that separation shows.
Indiana controls the game early, forces Miami into a faster tempo than it prefers, and pulls away in the second half. Expect Mendoza to exploit mismatches and Indiana’s defense to create short fields.
Prediction: Indiana 38, Miami 24. The Hoosiers win by double digits and complete a perfect season with a national championship.
