Is There Really an NFL Sophomore Jinx?
Is there such a thing as an NFL sophomore jinx, especially when it comes to quarterbacks?
Six quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. Five started and, for the most part, played well (Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy missed the season with a knee injury). This season all six, including McCarthy, opened the year as their team’s starter.
Through three games, two are doing better than they did as rookies — New England’s Drake Maye and Chicago’s Caleb Williams. Three — Washington’s Jayden Daniels, Atlanta’s Michael Penix and Denver’s Bo Nix — have not. And McCarthy is hurt again.
Sean Payton on the “Jinx”
“I would think the second-year climb happens more, realistically,’’ Denver head coach Sean Payton said when asked about the jinx. “The other is like Bigfoot. It makes for a good question, but give me examples. I’m not talking about one-hit wonders that are veterans who had a year. There are a few that had that year and then kind of went away. And that was like, I compared it to one of those ‘80s video bands.
“I believe in experience and I believe when you have a good football player who has had a year of experience, especially at that position you build confidence through demonstrated ability.’’
The Class of ’24: Year Two
Caleb Williams, Chicago, 1st overall pick — Against Dallas last week, Williams wasn’t sacked for the first time in his NFL career, and for the first time since USC’s win over Stanford in 2023. After posting an 87.8 rating as a rookie, he’s up to 107.6 early in 2025.
Jayden Daniels, Washington, 2nd overall pick — Last year’s Rookie of the Year has regressed. In two starts (he missed one with a leg injury), his completion percentage has dipped from 69 percent to 59.7, and his QB rating has fallen from 90.8 to 59.7.
Drake Maye, New England, 3rd overall pick — Maye started the final 12 games of his rookie year, completing 66 percent of his passes with an 88.9 rating. This season he’s even better, completing 72.6 percent with a 101.3 rating.
Michael Penix, Atlanta, 8th overall pick — After three rookie starts, Penix looked like a project. Three games into 2025, he’s near the bottom of the league in most categories, with just one touchdown. He was benched in last week’s shutout loss to Carolina.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota, 10th overall pick — Conspiracy theories swirl around his latest injury. After an uneven opener where he shined in one quarter, McCarthy struggled badly in Week 2 before giving way to Carson Wentz.
Bo Nix, Denver, 12th overall pick — Nix had 29 touchdowns and a 93.3 rating as a rookie. This year his rating has dropped to 83.4, with five touchdowns and three interceptions.
The New Kid
Cam Ward, Tennessee, 1st overall pick in 2025 — Ward is struggling early. The Titans are 0-3, Ward has been sacked 15 times, completed just 54 percent of his passes, and has a 71.4 rating.
Panic in New York
Giants head coach Brian Daboll looks like a man coaching for his job. His decision to start rookie Jaxson Dart this week screams desperation. History says it’s a mistake. Andy Reid didn’t start Donovan McNabb until late in his rookie season and sat Patrick Mahomes for an entire year. The Giants aren’t winning this season regardless of QB, so why not let Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston take the hits while Dart develops?
The Backup Drop-Off
Carson Wentz looked sharp in his first Vikings start last week. But history under Kevin O’Connell warns against optimism. The other three backups who started for him played well initially, averaging 27 points and a 103.1 rating in their first games. In their second starts? Just 18 points, a 70.4 rating, and an 0-3 record.
Sam I Am
Seattle’s Sam Darnold has continued his remarkable turnaround. Since the start of 2024 (20 games), he has posted a QB rating of 100 or better in 14 contests. Only Lamar Jackson, with 16, has done it more often over that span.
