RANT SPORTS – ORANGE BOWL SEMIFINAL: NOTRE DAME VS. PENN STATE
Penn State squares off with Notre Dame on January 9th in the Orange Bowl from Miami. Penn State arrived here by disposing of two overmatched opponents, SMU and Boise State, while Notre Dame punched their ticket by overwhelming Indiana and smothering Georgia. Notre Dame has opened as a two-point favorite, with a total of 46. We have two defensive stalwarts here, so let’s take a deeper look and see who will advance to the title game.
The Matchup
Defense is what stands out when analyzing these two teams. The Irish absolutely swarmed the Bulldogs all night long in the quarterfinals, holding Georgia to 66 yards on 29 rush attempts. With an offense that could only muster 244 yards, it was the defense that controlled that game. Special teams played a key role with a second-half kickoff return for a touchdown. Looking at Notre Dame’s schedule, the Irish allowed more than 16 points just twice all year—against Louisville (24) and USC (35). It will be interesting to see how the Irish match up with a well-balanced Penn State team.
The Irish offense leans heavily on a running game that averages 217 yards per game, which will be a key matchup against a stout Penn State defense. Moving the ball against this Nittany Lions defense will be a tall order. The Irish relied on a late first-half turnover followed by a second-half kickoff return touchdown to gain separation from Georgia, then turned the game over to their defense. They will be hard-pressed to repeat that script against Penn State.
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Penn State’s defense is dominant and will pose a tougher challenge than Georgia, who held the Irish to a measly 244 yards. The Nittany Lions are part of the exclusive 200/200 club, averaging 234 passing yards and 202 rushing yards per game. Ohio State has been the only team to limit this offense, holding them to 13 points on 270 yards. Taking a closer look, Penn State managed 325 yards in their first-round win over SMU, where the defense forced three turnovers, and they were outgained 412–387 in their second-round game, where the defense forced four turnovers. This balanced offense is tough to stop, but they can be controlled by strong defenses.
CONCLUSION
So, how does this game play out? These are two evenly matched teams. At first glance, Penn State seems to have more offensive weapons, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant advantage. In terms of betting, this is a game to stay away from. When it’s all said and done, this matchup will come down to turnovers. Notre Dame is among the best in the nation with a +18 turnover margin on the season. The Irish maintained that dominance with a +2 margin against Georgia. Meanwhile, Penn State is +5 in the playoffs.
Handicapping turnovers is impossible in a matchup like this. In a true toss-up game with no clear betting value, I give a slight advantage to Penn State due to their offensive balance.
PREDICTION
PENN STATE 19, NOTRE DAME 17
