NASCAR.COM – Story by Alex Cadavid – After a wild All-Star Weekend that saw tempers flare and $1 million paid out to Joey Logano, the Cup Series is back in full swing this weekend with a crown-jewel race on tap in the Queen City.
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The advance metrics once again have its sights set on Kyle Larson to end up in Victory Lane. Larson will be attempting the Memorial Day Double this Sunday, which is a challenge in itself, but it‘s a 1.5-mile track this week, which means it‘s still a good bet Larson will find his way to the front after driving 500 miles around the Brickyard. In 2021, when Larson won the Coca-Cola 600, he swept each stage and led 327 laps at Charlotte. He also has 21 stage wins on 1.5-mile tracks since ’21 and has the most top-five finishes in night races in the Next Gen era wit
Following Larson in the projections is Joe Gibbs Racing‘s Denny Hamlin, 23XI Racing‘s Tyler Reddick, Larson‘s Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron and Hamlin‘s JGR counterpart in Martin Truex Jr. to round out the top five. Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman and Christopher Bell complete the projected top 10.
The Coca-Cola 600 is set to be a thrilling nightcap on Sunday, which is a day full of action across three major motorsport categories.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
TYLER REDDICK: Reddick has impressively finished in the top 10 in each of his four Coca-Cola 600 starts, giving him an average finish of 7.0 in NASCAR’s longest race and ranking second-best all-time among drivers with more than two starts. Reddick also has scored the second most points on 1.5-mile tracks (113) this season.
MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Truex has remained consistent all year. He currently sits second in the driver standings and is the only one without a trip to Victory Lane in the top six, but that could change soon. Truex has led the most laps in four of the last nine Coca-Cola 600s, including his remarkable 2016 win where he led 392 laps.
Brad Keselowski wins the Goodyear 400.
CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott‘s 9.85 average finish is currently the best in the Cup field. He already has an intermediate win this year at Texas. At Charlotte, he has finished top five in four of the last six oval races, including a pair of runner-up finishes in the last five events and Hendrick has won 12 Coca-Cola 600s.
CHRIS BUESCHER: The Buescher camp has suffered heartbreak in the last two points-paying races. Despite that, the No. 17 team has been hitting its stride and has been in contention to win in a handful of races this year. Charlotte could be the weekend they finally put it all together and get a breakthrough win.
KYLE BUSCH: It‘s been an up-and-down year for Rowdy, but across the last seven Coca-Cola 600s, he‘s finished sixth or better. His 1,061 laps led in the 600 ranks third best all-time. Not to mention Busch has 16 career wins on 1.5-mile tracks. Plus, two of Busch‘s five top-10 finishes came on intermediates this year.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COCA-COLA 600Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 4 | 24 | William Byron |
| 5 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 6 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 7 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 9 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 11 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 12 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 13 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 14 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 15 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 16 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 17 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 18 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 19 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 20 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 21 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 23 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 24 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 25 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 26 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 27 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 28 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 29 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 30 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 31 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 32 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 33 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 34 | 84 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 35 | 15 | Kaz Grala |
| 36 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 37 | 50 | Ty Dillon |
| 38 | 16 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 39 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |
| 40 | 66 | BJ McLeod |