RANT SPORTS– ROSE BOWL QUARTERFINAL: OHIO STATE VS. OREGON
On January 1st at 5 PM EDT, we have a College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup between the two highest power-rated teams in the country. The first thing that stands out is that Ohio State is favored by 2.5 points over undefeated Oregon.
Let’s take a deep dive into this showdown and analyze how these two giants match up.
This is a rematch of the thrilling game in Eugene back in mid-October, where Oregon held on for a narrow 32-31 victory. That game was as close as it gets. Oregon held a slight edge in total yards, 496-467. The Buckeyes had two turnovers compared to the Ducks, who had none.
What really stood out was a controversial 3rd-and-25 play for Ohio State at the Oregon 43-yard line with 10 seconds left. Oregon purposefully lined up 12 players on defense to force an incompletion, eating up six seconds in exchange for only a five-yard penalty. This clever strategy secured the Ducks’ win.
However, the NCAA implemented an in-season rule change after this game. Now, offenses can reset the clock if the defense is caught with 12 players on the field at the snap—unless a defender is actively attempting to leave the field.
WHERE IS THE VALUE?
When breaking down this College Football Playoff game, one thing becomes clear: there’s no obvious betting value here. Emotional bettors might place wagers, but with teams this elite, we must split hairs to find edges.
In Eugene, Oregon’s team speed on offense was the most glaring advantage. Their ultra-fast offense gave the Buckeyes’ solid defense fits all day. With Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, no one has managed to shut Oregon down all season. They will likely be able to move the ball effectively in this neutral-site setting.
Oregon’s defense, however, is a different story. Season-long stats might paint them as solid, but in three key matchups against strong offenses, the Ducks allowed 31+ points each time. Boise State put up 34 points, with Ashton Jeanty rushing for 192 yards. Ohio State tallied 31 points on 467 yards, and in their most recent game, Penn State racked up 37 points and 523 yards.
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes, on the other hand, boast a defense that has been dominant. They’ve allowed fewer than 10 points six times this season and held 12 of their 13 opponents to 17 points or fewer. The lone exception? Oregon, who put up 32. The Buckeyes shut down Penn State on the road (13 points), Indiana (15 points), and Tennessee (17 points) in the first round. Both Penn State and Tennessee are strong offensive units, making these performances even more impressive.
Offensively, Ohio State has scored 31+ points in 10 of 13 games. However, they’ve been slowed down against tougher opponents, such as Michigan (a home loss) and Penn State (a 20-point effort in a win). The Buckeyes rebounded from their Michigan loss with a dominant 42-17 victory over Tennessee, jumping out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and amassing 473 yards. What’s more, Ohio State excelled despite Tennessee committing zero turnovers.
WHAT HAPPENS?
How do we separate these teams to make a prediction for the most anticipated game of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals? Ohio State enters as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total set at 54.
The Buckeyes’ defense is clearly superior to Oregon’s. Additionally, having already faced the Ducks’ speed, Ohio State won’t be as shocked by their pace this time around. That said, Oregon’s offense has been unstoppable all season.
The total feels a little low. This game looks like a toss-up, so taking Oregon at +110 on the moneyline offers better value than the spread.
Ohio State QB WIll Howard transferred from Kansas State and I have heard so often all year from KSU fans on how he will not show out in the big game. I have to favor Dillon Gabriel over Will Howard.
Given these factors, Oregon at plus money in a coin-flip game feels like the slightest edge.
PREDICTION
Oregon 31, Ohio State 30
