SUGAR BOWL QUARTERFINAL: GEORGIA VS. NOTRE DAME
RANT SPORTS – Two powerhouses collide in New Orleans as Georgia takes on Notre Dame. The big news is that backup QB Gunnar Stockton will take over for the Georgia Bulldogs for this College Football Playoff Quarterfinal. Notre Dame will be missing a big part of their defense, as Rylie Mills, the talented DT and the Irish’s best defensive player, is unavailable. Georgia is favored, but let’s take a closer look and see who will advance in this big-time College Football Playoff matchup.
Breaking down the Irish schedule, they beat a ranked Texas A&M on the road in Week 1, but there isn’t much to like after that. They managed a seven-point home win over Louisville, and their victory over Georgia Tech came against a team missing QB Haynes King, the heart and soul of the Yellowjackets. Notre Dame was dominant at times, including blowing past Army and Navy, who were severely outclassed. However, the win over USC raised a red flag for their defense, which was sliced up. They beat an overmatched Indiana in round one to get here. Of course, there was the fluke loss to Northern Illinois, which made every game for the rest of the year essentially a playoff game.
NOTRE DAME
Looking at Notre Dame on offense, we see a team that averages 222.4 rushing yards per game, setting up a passing attack that averages 196.8 yards per game—putting them close to the 200/200 club. QB Riley Leonard leads the team with a 66.8% completion rate, while Jeremiah Love is the workhorse in the backfield. The Irish will need to be able to run the ball in this one to set up play-action and avoid putting too much pressure on Riley Leonard in the passing game.
Riley is also very effective on the ground as the team’s second-leading rusher. Georgia allows 129 rushing yards per game, so it will be interesting to see if the Irish can push them around. Lesser teams have occasionally put up massive rushing numbers against the Bulldogs, like UMass, who tallied 208 yards. However, these numbers often reflect garbage-time stats when backups are in, skewing the data. The truth is Georgia’s run defense, led by its starters, is better than the stats suggest.
Notre Dame’s defense can prevent Georgia from exploding offensively, but they don’t have much film on QB Gunnar Stockton. Stockton is a good passer, but unlike Carson Beck, he is also a talented runner. This added element could pose issues for Notre Dame’s solid defensive unit.
GEORGIA
When we look at Georgia, we start with what’s new. QB Gunnar Stockton played the entire second half against an elite Texas defense and pulled out the win. The most glaring aspect of this Bulldog offense is its struggle in the rushing game, averaging just 129.2 yards per game. Georgia did average 284 passing yards per game, but that was with Carson Beck. Additionally, Georgia drops more passes than any other team in the country.
It must be noted that Georgia faced one of the toughest schedules in the country. Few teams could navigate Clemson, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas (twice), and Georgia Tech while still making the playoffs. This resilience is often overlooked in surface-level evaluations of Georgia’s performance. The Bulldogs’ defense matches up well with Notre Dame, especially with ample time to prepare. Stockton’s ability to extend plays with his feet will be a key factor in how Georgia moves the ball.
WHAT HAPPENS?
The coaching edge and experience of Georgia’s staff in these high-stakes situations are significant advantages. Season-long stats won’t fully uncover who will win this game. Georgia is favored for a reason. Despite having a backup QB, the Bulldogs are still the type of program that can absorb such a loss and remain dangerous against anyone in the country.
There are no true betting advantages in this College Football Playoff matchup. The clash between Notre Dame’s rushing attack and Georgia’s rushing defense will be crucial in determining the outcome. This looks to be a lower-scoring affair. Ultimately, I trust Georgia to make just enough plays to escape this game and advance to the semifinals.
PREDICTION
GEORGIA 20, NOTRE DAME 19
