BUFFALO (10-6) at MIAMI (11-5)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. EST, NBC
OPENING LINE: Bills by 3, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
AGAINST THE SPREAD: Bills 6-10; Dolphins 10-6.
SERIES RECORD: Dolphins lead 62-57-1.
LAST MEETING: Bills beat Dolphins 48-20 in Orchard Park, New York, on Oct. 1, 2023.
LAST WEEK: Bills beat Patriots 27-21; Dolphins lost at Baltimore 56-19.
BILLS OFFENSE: OVERALL (5), RUSH (7), PASS (10), SCORING (6).
BILLS DEFENSE: OVERALL (10), RUSH (15), PASS (7), SCORING (4).
DOLPHINS OFFENSE: OVERALL (1), RUSH (5), PASS (1), SCORING (1).
DOLPHINS DEFENSE: OVERALL (9), RUSH (7), PASS (12), SCORING (21t).
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Bills plus-3; Dolphins plus-1.
BILLS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Josh Allen. He’s carried the offense this far with an NFL-leading 42 touchdowns (27 passing, and 15 rushing), and a career-worst 16 interceptions, and three lost fumbles. Though he’s gone 37 of 67 for 500 yards with two touchdowns passing, five rushing and two interceptions over his past three outings, Allen is 10-2, including playoffs, against the Dolphins with 39 TDs (34 passing, five rushing) and seven interceptions.
DOLPHINS PLAYER TO WATCH: WR Tyreek Hill said he played one of the worst games of his career against the Ravens. Hill had six catches for 76 yards and dropped a would-be touchdown when he was wide open in the end zone in the second quarter. Hill hasn’t surpassed 100 yards receiving in three straight games, but still leads the NFL with 1,717 yards. He has 12 touchdowns.
KEY MATCHUP: Dolphins receivers vs. Bills secondary. Hill only had three receptions for 53 yards against the Bills in Week 4, and Miami could face Buffalo’s pass defense without Jaylen Waddle, who is the only Dolphin in franchise history to have three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Buffalo has allowed just one passing touchdown in the past four games. CB Rasul Douglas, who will likely line up against Hill, has four interceptions, a pick-6, eight passes defensed, a sack and two fumble recoveries since joining Buffalo in an Oct. 31 trade.
KEY INJURIES: Bills starting S Micah Hyde’s status bears monitoring after being limited in practice with a neck injury. QB Allen is practicing fully and says he’s good to go despite a sore neck. … Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle missed last week’s game because of a high ankle sprain, and RB Raheem Mostert did not play because of knee and ankle injuries. Both are questionable this week. .. QB Tua Tagovailoa has practiced fully and said his shoulder is fine despite previously citing soreness from Sunday’s game. … CB Xavien Howard (foot) is out. … Hill (ankle) practiced fully Friday after being limited earlier in the week. He left Wednesday’s practice early because of a fire at his South Florida home and was shown on a local news station’s livestream with his left foot in a walking boot. … Starting LB Jerome Baker returned to practice for the first time since going on injured reserve a month ago with a knee injury. He is questionable.
SERIES NOTES: The Bills are 12-2 in the regular season and postseason against Miami since 2017, which was Sean McDermott’s first year as head coach. … The Dolphins dominated the Bills in the 1970s by going 20-0 against their division rival, which still stands as the NFL’s longest winning streak against one opponent. … Josh Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in Buffalo’s win over Miami in Week 4. Stefon Diggs had 120 yards on six receptions and three touchdowns. … Miami beat Buffalo 21-19 at Hard Rock Stadium on Sept. 25 last season.
STATS AND STUFF: The Bills are in position to win their fourth straight AFC East title, which would match a franchise record spanning 1988-91. Buffalo has already set a team record with 10 or more wins in five straight seasons. … The Bills have the NFL’s best streak by having won 13 straight regular-season games played in December and January. They’re 18-2 overall since 2020. The winning streak goes back to consecutive losses to New England and Tampa Bay in December 2021. … Allen’s 15 TDs rushing are one short of matching a single-season team record set by O.J. Simpson during a 14-game season in 1975. … Allen’s streak of consecutive games with a TD pass ended at 23 last weekend. With two TDs rushing, he has scored in 41 straight games. … Allen is 37-26 overall when committing a turnover, and 7-6 this season. … With 248 yards receiving in his past six outings, WR Khalil Shakir doubled the total he had through his first 10 games. … Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid had a career-best 87 yards receiving last weekend. He also set a single-season team record for rookies at all positions with his 66th catch — one more than WR Sammy Watkins had in 2014. … Kincaid is Buffalo’s second TE with 60-plus catches in a season, joining Pete Metzelaars, who had 68 in a 16-game season in 1993. … CB Rasul Douglas had two interceptions against New England, upping his total to six since being acquired in a trade with Green Bay on Oct. 31. … The Bills have not allowed a TD passing in three straight outings, and held each of their past three opponents to 18 or fewer first downs. … P Sam Martin became the third player this season to land at least six punts inside an opponent’s 20 last week. … The Dolphins’ 37-point loss at Baltimore last week was their largest defeat of the season. … The Dolphins are 4-0 coming off a loss this season. … Miami can clinch the AFC East for the first time since 2008 with a win and would lock in the No. 2 seed for the first time since 1992. … A victory would also give the Dolphins their first 12-win season since 1990. … The Dolphins have lost just three home games since Nov. 7, 2021. Their 19-3 mark in that span is their best 22-game stretch at Hard Rock Stadium since the venue opened in 1987. … The Dolphins have outscored opponents 273-135 in eight home games this season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL. … RB De’Von Achance is one touchdown away from tying Karim Abdul Jabbar for most touchdowns by a rookie in franchise history. … Hill has eight 100-yard receiving games this season and needs one more to break the franchise record set by Mark Duper in 1986. Hill is also 5 yards away from moving into the top 10 in NFL history for most receiving yards in a single season. … LB Bradley Chubb will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL against Baltimore. … Miami needs 390 total yards to break the franchise single-season record of 6,936 total yards set in 1984.
FANTASY TIP: If Mostert misses his second straight game, the rookie RB Achane appears more than capable of carrying the load again. Achane averaged 7.6 yards on 14 carries for 107 yards with a receiving touchdown against Baltimore. He has four 100-yard rushing games this season, and Miami as a team has rushed for at least 120 yards in four of the past six outings.
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