by Carter Brantley
The Bucs take on those pesky Dirty Birds this Sunday to open up their 2025 season, and there’s not a whole lot to take away from most Week 1 matchups because A) it’s one game and B) it’s the first time a lot of teams’ starters are playing in a real game.
But, that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun looking at some numbers and background information on the Falcons, because it’s football season darn it and it’s fun to be able to finally talk some ball.
Atlanta had an up and down season last year, with their offense being bogged down a good bit by a past-his-prime Kirk Cousins (why on Earth they signed him is still a question I’d like answered), so a lot of their offensive production as a team last season can be taken with a grain of salt.
But, they have two elite skill position players in wideout Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson.
London had a massive target share last year, ranking third in the league in targets per route run among pass catchers with at least 100 routes run, and was sixth in target share rate.
This led to the former first-round pick racking up over 1,200 receiving yards for the year on an even 100 receptions.
Tampa Bay’s secondary will have its hands full with the USC man, as corners Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum hope to slow him down on their way to a successful Week 1.
Atlanta’s running back (oh here’s to you Mr. Robinson; is that anything?) is similarly important in both effectiveness and volume, with the former Longhorn coming in at eighth among all ball carriers in the NFL in total estimated points added last season, as well as ranking fourth in total yards after contact.
While the young running back lacked a lot of the explosiveness that was promised out of a first round back, coming in 26th in explosive play rate, he was hard to bring down for a loss, as he had the 6th lowest tackle for a loss percentage in the league.
Obviously the Bucs struggled to slow down teams throwing the ball last year, but hopefully they can continue to contain Robinson in both the ground game as well as when he leaks out as a receiver.
This would force first-year-starter Michael Penix, Jr. (Dade City stand up!) to have a productive game, which will be made difficult by the Falcons missing their starting right tackle, Kaleb McGary.
As Penix, Jr. is left-handed, McGary was supposed to serve as his blind side protector; instead, backup Elijah Wilkinson will initially serve this role to begin the season.
Defensively the Falcons struggled a good bit, with a weak front-seven that failed to get after the quarterback (only the Patriots had a worse sack rate last year) and stop the run (25th in estimated points added per rush allowed).
Their two first-round draft choices are SEC pass rushers with enough athleticism to hopefully bolster one part of that equation, but their linebackers and interior defensive linemen still leave much to be desired, as the team moved on from veteran defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and didn’t really replace him.
The hope for the Bucs will be that they’re able to take advantage of the Falcons’ inability to stop the run and build sustained drives with few setbacks.
If the Bucs can manage to put together more of a balanced offensive approach like they did last year and Bucky Irving can have a big game (both entirely plausible outcomes), it’s a solid bet they can come out on top.
But even if not, it’s only Week 1, and it’s a road divisional matchup against the clear secomd best team in the division.
No reason to overreact one way or the other.
