Fresh off of nearly setting the NFL single-game scoring record, it seemed like Tua Tagovailoa was firmly in the 2023 MVP driver’s seat. As stated at OvertimeHeroics.net, the former Alabama quarterback has been downright dominant over the past two seasons, leading the entire league in yards per catch and net yards per attempt over that time.
But, just like his 2018 Heisman campaign, could the Dolphins quarterback be in danger of coming up just short once again? After getting demolished by the Josh Allen-led Bills and throwing two picks against the Giants, Tua is starting to look human, and some of the league’s best players are capitalizing on it.
Still, there’s plenty of football left to play, and Tua has a lot of things going in his favor this season. Let’s discuss a few reasons why he still has a great shot at winning his first MVP.
Excellent Counting Stats
At the end of the day, awards like MVP often come down to who has the best numbers on a winning team. And right now, Tua Tagovailoa is excelling in both categories.
The 2017 National Champion is at the helm of the league’s #1 scoring offense while on pace for over 37 touchdowns and nearly 5,500 yards, all while leading the Dolphins to top of the AFC East standings. If Tua can put up that many yards while leading Miami to 12+ wins, he’ll be on the podium at the very least.
An Ideal Situation
This is in no way a knock against Tua. To win MVP you often need an excellent supporting cast to truly push your case over the edge. Think of Davante Adams in Green Bay or Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis. With such talented skill players in his corner, Tua will have an advantage even on days when he’s not the sharpest.
The dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably the best one-two receiving punch in the NFL, with excellent hands and world-class speed. Their effectiveness is only accentuated by a surprisingly adept run game, headlined by breakout rookie De’Von Achane who may miss games due to a knee injury. With teams having to respect the run, it opens up a ton of space for Hill and Waddle to burn opposing secondaries deep.
Slow Starts Elsewhere
Sometimes to win MVP, it takes a little bit of luck, and that might be the case for Tua Tagovailoa this year. Before the season, two names right at the top of many people’s ballots would have been reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes and Cincinnati phenom Joe Burrow. But, both star quarterbacks have gotten off to a slow start, with neither showcasing quite the level of dominance we’ve come to expect from them in recent years.
While Tua will certainly have to finish strong down the stretch, it bodes well that his main competition are still shaking off a bit of offseason rust.
Firmly In the Mix
No matter which way you slice it, it’s hard to argue that Tua Tagovailoa has been anything less than one of the top five players in the NFL so far this season. The Miami Dolphins signal caller is throwing the ball better than anyone else in football right now and has quality skill players around him to help maintain this momentum. Even with his recent bumps, Tua is still leading the league in passing yards and sporting a sterling 111.9 QBR.
According to sports betting sites like FanDuel, Tua is at +500 to be named MVP, only behind Patrick Mahomes at +350.
That doesn’t mean he’s lacking for competition. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is off to an unbelievable start in the Bay, Jalen Hurts has the Eagles offense humming in Philly, and the aforementioned Mahomes, despite the slow start, can never be counted out.
