Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets are set to square off against Jake Burger and the Miami Marlins this Saturday at 4:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. If you’re like me, you’re probably already anticipating the first pitch and mulling over those betting possibilities. Favored at -192, the Mets are expected to dominate, leaving the Marlins with +160 odds. The run-line sees New York at -1.5, and the game’s over/under is pegged at 8.5 runs.

Let’s dive into everything you need to know about this matchup from a betting angle.

Mets vs. Marlins Game Information

• When: Saturday, August 17, 2024, at 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• How to Watch: SNY

Mets Betting Insights

The Mets have been the favorites 68 times this season, winning 54.4% of those games. Particularly, with a moneyline of -192 or greater, they hold a 5-3 record. This implies the Mets have about a 65.8% chance of winning according to the oddsmakers.

For those exploring the run line, New York’s recent performance is something to keep an eye on—they’ve gone 3-3 as favorites in their last six games, combining to hit the over four times in that span. Over their last 10 games, the team has a 4-6-0 record against the spread.

Marlins Betting Insights

As for Miami, they’ve been underdogs in 105 games this season, winning 39% of them. When tagged with a moneyline of +160 or longer, they’ve managed 11 wins in 33 opportunities, which gives them an implied probability of 38.5% for this matchup.

Recently, the Marlins have gone 4-6 as underdogs in their last 10 games, and their games have hit the over on seven occasions in that same span. They also sport a 5-5-0 record against the spread over their last 10 contests.

SME’s 3 Key Betting Insights

• Moneyline Movement: The Mets have a significant implied win probability, with their odds set at -192. This gives them around a 65.8% chance of winning, something to mull over if you’re feeling favorable towards the Mets.
• Run Total Trends: The over/under is set at 8.5, and both teams have shown tendencies to hit the over in recent games. The Mets’ recent matchups have combined to go over four times in their last 10, while the Marlins have hit the over seven times in their last 10.
• Run Line Considerations: New York’s run-line is set at -1.5. While they have struggled a bit with a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their last 10 games, keep an eye on current form and matchups individually for more insight.

Player Highlights

Francisco Lindor continues to be the shining star for the Mets, with a batting average of .263 and topping the team with 69 RBIs. He’s on a hot streak, hitting .341 over his last 10 games with some added power.

Pete Alonso adds 26 home runs to the Mets’ tally, ranking 11th in the league, while Brandon Nimmo and Jesse Winker also contribute significantly with their bats.

On the Marlins’ side, Jake Burger’s consistency shines through with 23 home runs and a team-best average of .253. Burger carries a fierce seven-game hitting streak into this matchup. Jesus Sanchez and Xavier Edwards also bring their own flair to Miami’s lineup.

So, if you’re up for some good baseball and exciting betting opportunities this Saturday, this game between the Mets and Marlins promises to deliver. Let’s see if the stats and odds hold up, or if the Marlins can pull off a surprise in Queens!

Simply put SME ‘Gets IT’. It being 2024 and Americas raging love affair with firing on both players and teams in which a keen eye for the sharp subtle divides between 2 way action & the ‘final’ score is where his delta resides. SME’s process always finds the nuance, subtle context or the dislocated narrative that separates W’s from an army of L’s. 

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