College football is back and it feels like a national holiday! Every team across the country is gearing up to hit the gridiron this weekend, and it’s tough not to get swept up in the excitement. But hold your horses, folks—I’d recommend being a bit cautious with your Week 1 wagers. Many teams will be rolling out new rosters, and this will be their first time playing as a cohesive unit.

Now, let’s dive into the matchups for Week 1.

Game Preview: UTEP @ Nebraska

Nebraska is looking like a solid pick this week. Coach Matt Rhule is kicking off his second season with the Cornhuskers, bringing in high expectations and a five-star quarterback, Dylan Raiola, to a team that’s returning a lot of talent. The Cornhuskers have speedsters at wide receiver, quality running backs, and a nearly intact offensive line ready to protect their new QB.

Nebraska’s defense was nothing short of impressive last season, ranking seventh in rushing defense and 27th in passing defense. This unit does an exceptional job of minimizing explosive plays, making it difficult for any opponent to get ahead. With eight returning starters, the defense is poised to be a brick wall once again.

On the flip side, UTEP is coming into this game with a lot of new faces and a new head coach, Scotty Walden. Most of their offense consists of transfer players from Austin Peay, and their offensive line is entirely new. Given that, and considering it’ll be their first game on the road, it’s hard to see UTEP putting up much of a fight.

Rhule has a history of dramatic improvements in his second year at a program—he turned Temple and Baylor into winning teams almost overnight. Expect big things from Nebraska this weekend.

PICK: Nebraska (-27.5)

Game Preview: Miami @ Florida

Florida vs. Miami, who’s not excited for this one? I’m a big fan of what Mario Cristobal has been building in Miami. The Hurricanes are finally looking strong in the trenches, after years of development and savvy recruitment. They’ve added QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez via the transfer portal, rounding out an already promising offense.

Miami’s defense saw a lot of improvement last year, but there are some question marks in the secondary this season. This might be something to keep an eye on as they go up against Florida’s talented group of wide receivers. The Gators, however, will need their offensive line to step up—last season, they allowed a sack on 10% of pass attempts, which is not great, to say the least.

Whenever Cristobal’s name comes up, naysayers often point to his game management issues. But let’s not forget, this guy has led teams to big wins even with limited rosters, like beating Ohio State at The Shoe while at Oregon and clinching the Pac-12 title by beating a top-10 Utah team.

PICK: Miami (-3)

Quick Hitters

• Idaho @ Oregon Over 62.5 (7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network): Oregon’s offense is a high-flying machine. Expect them to put up big numbers, possibly even covering this over all by themselves. Their track record includes scoring 70 against Eastern Washington and 81 against Portland State, and the offensive talent is even deeper this year.
• Illinois State @ Iowa -22.5 (noon, Big Ten Network): The line here seems a bit disrespectful to Iowa. Yes, their offense struggled last season, but this year brings a new offensive coordinator and a healthy QB. Illinois State isn’t exactly a powerhouse, and Iowa’s defense should dominate.

SME’s 3 Betting Insights

• Watch Out for First-Time Rosters: Week 1 is always tricky, especially with teams featuring new players and coaches. It’s often wiser to bet conservatively.
• Second-Year Rhule Teams: Matt Rhule historically turns teams around by his second season. Pay special attention to Nebraska’s matchups.
• Under the Radar Offense Boosts: Don’t underestimate teams that’ve made quiet but significant improvements in their offensive lines; they could surprise many.

So, gear up, make your picks wisely, and enjoy the Week 1 festivities!

Simply put SME ‘Gets IT’. It being 2024 and Americas raging love affair with firing on both players and teams in which a keen eye for the sharp subtle divides between 2 way action & the ‘final’ score is where his delta resides. SME’s process always finds the nuance, subtle context or the dislocated narrative that separates W’s from an army of L’s. 

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