NFL WEEK 11 MNF BETTING PREVIEW: DALLAS @ LAS VEGAS
DALLAS: (3-5-1) / (1-4 ROAD) vs. LAS VEGAS: (2-7) / (1-3 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: DALLAS (-3 or -3 ½) ~ TOTAL: (50)
DALLAS (#4) OFFENSE: (121R-258P) vs. VEGAS (#15) DEF: (107R-215P)
VEGAS (#30) OFFENSE: (87R-185P) vs. DALLAS (#31) DEF: (143R/254P)
BAILOUT GAME OF WEEK MORE RUN FOR HILLS GAME OF WEEK!
The NFL usually does good work with the Thursday night and Monday Night Football games but this one they botched pretty good and it’s worse due to they had already punished us with the Jets playing last Thursday night. Now we get lucky again with two of the worst Defenses in the league facing off to close out Week 11. This article will be one of my hardest but let’s give it our best whirl.
DALLAS RETURNS FROM TOUGH BYE WEEK BUT RELOAD ON DEFENSE!
The “Bye” week is supposed to be a time to relax and regroup for the second half of the season but for Dallas it was nothing close to that as one of their top young players M. Kneeland committed suicide. As bad as things have gone for the Cowboys, this hard situation they’ve sadly been forced to endure will now likely happen again Monday night as they will likely regain those soul crushing thoughts once this game gets ready for kickoff. The good news for Cowboys fans is their second worst Defense will get some bigtime reinforcements with 4 very solid players heading into the starting lineup. There is really nowhere to go but up and I fully believe these 4 will at least make them no longer a whipping boy on Defense the rest of this season.
NOTHING HAS GONE RIGHT FOR THIS RAIDERS OFFENSE THIS YEAR!
Every team and their fans have high hopes when the new season starts and when you get a storied new Head Coach (P. Carroll) and a new QB (G. Smith) and then you pick a real bulldozer Running Back (A. Jeanty) with your early first round pick you have to feel like you have made major improvements and the team might just be able to make a Playoff push. You then win your opener on the Road against a very good Patriots team and you think “we got something here finally”! Sadly that was basically the high of this 2025 season as the Raiders have since lost 7 of their last 8 games with the only win over hapless Tennessee in a game they actually were atrocious on Offense (only gained 226 total yards) but were bailed out by the best Defensive effort all season long. Another long season of almost all misery for the Black and Silver fans.
DALLAS HAS BEEN FINE ON OFFENSE & SCORING POINTS NO PROBLEM!
For over a month the Cowboys had the (#1) Offense in the league and until their past 2 games the Offense was clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys have scored (40 or more) points 3x and they have scored 24 points or more 3 more games. By contrast the Raiders Offense has scored over 24 points just once the entire season and it took Overtime to garner those 29 points. Their big trade for QB Smith has turned into a gigantic bust as he leads the NFL in Interceptions with 12 and even with the solid draft pick of stud RB Jeanty they are only averaging (87) rushing yards per game (3rd lowest). The Offensive Line has been really bad as Smith has been sacked (27x) but a lot of those are also on Smith who looks like only a shell of his really solid past few seasons with Seattle. It’s really hard to win in this league when you score less than an unattractive Fat guy in a Night Club on a Saturday night.
BOTH HEAD COACHES VERY FAMILIAR WITH EACH OTHER!
Dallas new HC B. Schottenheimer was the O.C. under Raiders HC P. Carroll so it may be a little harder to fool one or the other here although Shottenheimer has so much more Offensive talent that it won’t matter what tendencies Carroll may be ready for.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF WEEK!
1). COWBOYS: 5 of their last 6 games have gone “OVER” the Total.
2). COWBOYS: Just (1-4) vs. losing teams their past 5 games in that spot.
3). RAIDERS: Have played 5 straight “UNDERS” on Monday Night TV games.
4). COWBOYS: Have gone “OVER” 11 of their L/12 games following their “BYE”.
NOTE: The Raiders will have no Home Field advantage as there will likely be 75% Cowboys fans attending this one in Las Vegas.
GARY’S FINAL PASS:
I won’t be in action for this basement Bowl but I will say a few things as I know most of you reading don’t care if gerbils are playing as you will surely be making a bet on this game. Again stats matter a ton but for Dallas and their second worst Defense this will be a totally different unit as they will be adding 4 players I feel all will definitely give a marked improvement. Dallas also has two WR’s averaging over 80 yards per game (Pickens-85, Lamb-82). Dallas by far has the better QB.
The one thing the Raiders have working for them is they have been very close with a 10 point win and two soul crushing 1 point losses in their last 3 Home games. The Raiders though have only gotten 4 sacks on the opposing QB the past 3 weeks combined and the one thing that would completely keep me off betting them even with those 3 close Home games of late is they have zero running game as they have gained just 68, 25, 57 and 74 rushing yards the past 4 games and they will have to be able to have solid ball control (they have had their Offense on the field only 74 minutes and the Defense on the field 116 minutes the past 2 games) to be able to keep Dak Prescott and his elite weapons off the field.
Lastly, asking a team like the Raiders who have only scored 7, 0, 6 and 20 points their past 4 games to outscore Dallas is delusional. I simply don’t know where the Cowboys heads will be after losing a teammate to suicide of all things and then adding 4 new guys (really 2 brand new but 2 from injury) it’s a lot to expect they come on board and gel immediately. I had a nice winner last night here with my Prop Pick of Eagles AJ Brown “OVER 5 RECEPTIONS” but sadly I couldn’t find anything solid for this game. It’s OK to pass and live to see another day. Please never lose more than you can afford. Have a great new week ahead everybody and if you can please say a prayer for my 87 year old Mom who will have full shoulder replacement surgery on Wednesday. Thanks.
FINAL NOTE: You can follow Vegas Pro Bettor Gary Greene on X at:
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