Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face Jake Burger and the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park on Monday. As the favorite in this matchup, the Diamondbacks hold -205 odds, while the Marlins, as the underdog, sit at +172. Arizona is also favored by 1.5 runs at -118 odds. The total for the game is set at 8 runs.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know from a betting perspective for the Diamondbacks-Marlins showdown, focusing on the run line, moneyline, and total, along with some expert insights.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Game Details
When: Monday, August 19, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: LoanDepot Park in Miami, Florida
How to Watch on TV: BSFL
Diamondbacks’ Performance Breakdown
This season, the Diamondbacks have been favored 62 times, winning 38 games, which translates to a 61.3% win rate. Notably, they have been favored by -205 or more on four occasions, winning every one of those games. The current moneyline suggests a 67.2% chance of victory for Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are entering this matchup with a reasonably strong recent performance, going 4-4 over their last eight games where they were moneyline favorites. They hit the over in six of their last 10 games, averaging 6.2 runs per game with an ERA of 3.99.
Key Players for the Diamondbacks
- Ketel Marte: Leading the team with 30 home runs and 81 RBIs, hitting at .298. He ranks highly in the league for batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging.
- Corbin Carroll: Batting .221 with 16 doubles, 11 triples, 13 home runs, and 53 walks.
- Josh Bell: Hitting .238 with 22 doubles, 18 home runs, and 40 walks.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: An essential contributor with 18 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs, and a .269 batting average.
Marlins’ Performance Breakdown
The Marlins, on the other hand, have been underdogs in 108 games this season, securing wins in 42 of them for a 38.9% win rate. When the Marlins are underdogs with odds of +172 or worse, they’ve achieved a record of 8-17. Their current moneyline implies a 36.8% probability of victory.
Recently, Miami has faced a tough stretch, going 4-6 in their last 10 games. Despite this, the over has hit in six of these games, with the Marlins averaging 4.3 runs per game and an ERA of 5.30.
Key Players for the Marlins
- Jake Burger: Leading his team with 24 home runs and 55 RBIs, boasting a .251 batting average.
- Jesus Sanchez: With 18 doubles, 15 home runs, and 25 walks, batting .237.
- Xavier Edwards: Hitting .350 with seven doubles, a triple, and a home run.
- Otto Lopez: Adding 10 doubles, a triple, three home runs, and a .236 batting average.
SMES 3: Betting Insights from Carlos SME
- Home Field Advantage: Playing at LoanDepot Park might offer the Marlins some cushioning despite their underdog status.
- Run Line Risks: Favoring the Diamondbacks at -1.5 means they need to win by two or more, making it a riskier bet despite their stronger record.
- Total Runs Potential: With the total set at 8 and recent trends of both teams hitting the over, expect a high-scoring game that could go beyond the set total.
Simply put SME ‘Gets IT’. It being 2024 and Americas raging love affair with firing on both players and teams in which a keen eye for the sharp subtle divides between 2 way action & the ‘final’ score is where his delta resides. SME’s process always finds the nuance, subtle context or the dislocated narrative that separates W’s from an army of L’s.
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