EAGLES: (6-2) / (3-1 ROAD) ~ PACKERS: (5-2-1) / (3-1 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1) ~ TOTAL: (45 ½)
TEAM TOTALS: EAGLES (22 ½) ~ PACKERS (23 ½)
EAGLES (#24) OFFENSE: (112R-193P) vs. PACKERS (#5) DEF: (89R-197P)
PACKERS (#8) OFFENSE: (113R-248P) vs. EAGLES (#22) DEF: (120R-216P)
REMATCH OF LAST YEAR’S WILD CARD PLAYOFF GAME IN LAMBEAU!
Last year we saw the Packers head to Philly for a Wild Card Playoff game and they left with nothing but heartache and a long offseason after they lost (22-10) after they turned the ball over 4x giving them really zero chance to win the game. The Packers also lost in Week 1 last year to the Eagles (34-29) in Brazil so it’s a double revenge spot for the Cheeseheads on Monday night. This clearly is a game the Packers players had circled the day the schedules came out and now they also come in off a brutal (16-13) loss the Panthers as a two TD favorite last week ensuring you will get their full attention this game.
PACKERS NOW FACING LIFE WITHOUT THEIR TOP RECEIVER KRAFT!
It’s very rare for any teams Tight End to be the teams leading receiver and even more so by a wide margin but that is the case for this year’s Packers team as TE Tucker Kraft is the leader halfway through the season with 489 total yards and 6 TD catches. Kraft is now out for the season after tearing his ACL last week. He led the team with Yards after the Catch with a whopping 344 yards. The second most on the team is RB Josh Jacobs with 232. Now WR R. Doubs leads the receiving corps with only 92 yards after catch. I don’t think any other player lost for the season on any team would be worse than this loss for the Packers.
NEITHER QB HAS PLAYED SANTA CLAUS THIS ENTIRE SEASON!
For the most part if your team’s QB has a very low number of Interceptions you likely will have a winning record. Well folks the Eagles QB J. Hurts has only thrown 1 interception all season and Packers QB J. Love has thrown just 3. The Eagles entire team has played Grinch as they have only committed 3 turnovers all season and 2 of them came in their lackluster loss to the Giants. The Packers Defense only has 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries all season and the Eagles Defense only has two interceptions and zero fumble recoveries the past 4 games so I don’t expect too many free gifts being given away in this contest.
THE STATS SHOW THE EAGLES AS A LOSING TEAM THUS FAR!
When you see a team ranked #24 on Offense and #22 on Defense you usually will see a losing record next to their name in the standings. But the Eagles know how to win regardless and this team is a rarity and proof that “stats do lie”. What makes the Eagles (6-2) record even more surprising is the fact they have only won the Time of Possession battle once the past 5 weeks. The past two weeks the Eagles Offense was terrible on third downs (2-8 & 3-10) but they still won both games.
The Eagles Offense has run over 60 plays in a game once all year long and that came in the season opener. The Birds Offensive Line has been shaky the past 4 games allowing QB Hurts to be sacked 16x. Hurts has already been sacked 25x this season (7th most). Yet they simply continue to find a way to win games without really dominating anyone.
PACKERS PUT POINTS ON THE BOARD BUT ARE STILL OFF RIGHT NOW!
Most teams fans would be thrilled with their team scoring 27, 27, 40, 27, 27 and 35 points in 6 of their 8 games. They would almost always be thrilled if their teams Defense was ranked #5. They would be thrilled that their team’s losses were both by only a FG (one also ended in a Tie). The Packers have won the Time of Possession battle 5 of their last 6 games. The Packers Defense has been solid allowing only 13, 18, 13, 18, 23, 16 and 25 points in 7 of their 8 games.
The game they allowed 25 was vs. the Steelers and in that game the Steel Crew went (1-10) on third down and had only 295 total yards and really had only 19 points scored until the Steelers scored a late meaningless TD with under 2 mins left. They have had one really bad Defensive outing and that was the 40-40 tie at Dallas. Yet with all these great things something simply is very off with this Packers team.
Last week the Packers lost 16-13 to the Panthers yet the Defense allowed only 265 total yards and it was a Love interception that set up a short field for Carolina to score a TD for 7 of those 16 points scored. The Defense has allowed only one opposing QB to pass for over 236 yards all season. They have 10 sacks the past 3 games combined. The Defense is much better with the trade addition of Micah Parsons but even with all these solid numbers they would likely be only (3-5) without the addition of Parsons to the lineup.
The Defensive Line only has 3 batted balls all season. They only have 2 fumble recoveries which is a sign of bad coaching teaching their players to punch balls out to force turnovers. The Packers Offensive Line simply can’t Run Block. Their running backs’ longest rush all season is only 19 yards. Their stud RB Jacobs has 10 rush TD’s but no other player has rushed for a TD all season. Last year the Packers were the 3rd highest running team and this season they’ve dipped to #9. Jacobs earns every single yard he gets as 14 QB’s in the NFL actually have more yards rushing before contact than Jacobs.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT AFFAIR IN LAMBEAU!
1). EAGLES: (10-5) Straight up L/15 on Road vs. Winning teams.
2). EAGLES: (7-1) ATS L/8 as a Non Division Road Underdog.
3). EAGLES: (5-0) ATS vs. Winning teams this season.
4). PACKERS: Just (1-5) ATS L/6 games.
5). PACKERS: Perfect (4-0) Straight up in 2nd of B2B Home games.
6). EAGLES: Last 13 Mon Night games = (3 “OVERS” – 10 “UNDERS”).
GARY’S FINAL PASS:
It will be very interesting to see who the Packers now go to on the Offensive side of the ball with stud TE Kraft out. Luckily for them, speedster WR C. Watson is back in lineup and if they can get him going and get 1st round pick WR Golden making a few big plays deep they can maybe give the running game some better openings as that would keep the Eagles from just loading the box to force Love to find guys who really have done nothing all season in the Passing game. The Packers could use a fast start to quickly erase that terrible loss last week to the Panthers and since the Defense has only allowed a hard to even fathom 2 FG’s all season in the first quarter that is a very doable situation.
For the Eagles when I watch game tapes not many good teams play calling leaves me scratching my head like they do as their OC Patullo play calling does. It’s also clear QB Hurts will take sacks rather than turn the ball over. The Eagles have one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the league with S. Barkley, D. Smith and A.J. Brown and so with the Packers desperately searching for a #1 receiver now with TE Kraft done for the season the Eagles really just need to avoid losing the turnover battle and they should be in this one throughout.
GARY’S PREDICTION:
You have to applaud the Eagles front office as they always seem to excel in the Draft and then add key needed pieces at the Trade deadline. I love the addition of DE J. Phillips and then also the return of retired DL B. Graham has now made the Eagles a clearly much better club then they have fielded most of this season. The Packers have only beaten 2 teams all season with a winning record. I have always been super impressed with the playcalling by their HC Matt LaFlueur but this season I have felt he has seemed lost way too often and it’s why this team just seems too out of sync to be considered a serious contender.
The sharps and the squares all seem to be backing the Eagles as the line opened Green Bay (-2 ½) and it’s now dropped to just (-1). It’s so hard to bet against the Packers at Lambeau Field or any very good team looking at double Revenge from last year including a Playoff knockout, but it’s also very hard to bet against this Super Bowl Champion Eagles team. Because I get queasy watching the Packers OL run blocking and then the loss of stud TE Kraft I just can’t side with them here. The Packers though have either won or lost by just a FG which tells me they will find a way to hang in this game the entire 60 minutes.
I fully expect this game to go to the wire and likely won in the final minutes, if not the final seconds. Last night I nailed the Steelers/Bolts game to a “T” but this one is not quite that easy. It’s too close for me to call this one so we will leave it to those who must wager on every TV game regardless of any solid value on one side.
Enjoy this final game of Week 10 and please never lose what you can’t afford to lose.
FINAL NOTE:
You can get all Longtime Las Vegas Pro Bettor Gary Greene’s Football Betting Magazine NFL Stats pages at: GARYWINS.COM
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