N.Y. JETS (2-7) /(1-2 AWAY) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2) / (3-2 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: NEW ENGLAND (-13) ~ TOTAL: (43)
NY JETS (#28) OFFENSE: (142R/144P) vs. NE PATRIOTS (#8) DEF. (79R-227P)
NE PATRIOTS (#10) OFFENSE: (118R-241P) vs. NY JETS (#19) DEF. (138R/191P)
RED HOT PATRIOTS TAKE ON JETS ON SHOCKING 2 GAME WIN STREAK!
OK folks well if you ever heard the phrase “Taking one for the team” that would be me here writing this article about this Primetime TV game featuring the NY Jets. The TV Gods must be smiling knowing that with the Jets on a shocking 2 game win streak many folks might forget they just traded their 2 best Defensive players and have the worst HC/QB tandem in the NFL and have no business being on Primetime TV at all.
As for the Patriots, this folks is most definitely a deserving team of playing on Primetime TV, as they are by far the hottest team in the NFL coming in on a fantastic 7 game winning streak, including wins over the Bills and Buccaneers and the #2 Browns Defense during this win streak. I am never really excited to watch NFL games though with one team nearly a 2 TD favorite.
JETS OFFENSE AS BAD AS I’VE EVER SEEN AND NOW MISSING TOP WR!
Oftentimes we will have shocking scores and some teams will get a win when really the Offense did as poor as an Offense can possibly do. Yes the Jets won their second straight game last week but the Offense did less than even zero to help the winning cause. The Jets Offense gained only 169 total yards, went (3-11) on third downs, ran only 47 total plays and then even worse than all these 4 things QB Justin Fields passed the ball for a line of (6-11-54) and one of the 6 completions went for 42 yards to RB Hall. No other pass was completed for over 4 yards. That is not a typo. Fields was also sacked 3x and threw an interception for what may be the worst overall QB stats across board I’ve ever seen.
So how did they pull off a win and put a not too shabby 27 points on the scoreboard? Well in a span of just 36 seconds they returned a Kickoff for a TD and then after a quick 3 and out by the Browns Offense they returned the Punt for a 74 yard Return TD. Offense zero yards and the team somehow has 14 points on the scoreboard. The Browns #2 Defense had to watch from the sidelines as the Jets put 14 points up and it wasn’t against their #2 Defensive Unit at all.
AFTER SLOW START TO THE SEASON THE PATS REALLY CLICKING!
The Patriots opened with losses in 2 of its first 3 games but since then they simply seem to make whatever big play is needed by either side of the ball. The Pats Offense has scored 30+ points in 4 games and they haven’t scored less than 23 points in this impressive 7 game win streak. They don’t possess elite stats really in any category but the one that will win you Championships, stopping the Opponents Run game. The Patriots are #1 against the Run allowing just 79 rushing yards per game. The Pats are one of the best tackling teams in the NFL and are 3rd best in explosion run rate allowed (5.1%). Their Defense is #6 in yards after contact so you have to earn the yardage you are getting. They haven’t allowed any opposing RB to gain over 50 yards the entire season.
ONE TEAM HAS AN MVP QB & THE OTHER ONE OF THE 3 WORST QB’S!
The Patriots won the Draft lottery selecting QB Drake Maye and he’s far from fully polished just yet but he definitely has already sold me that he is going to be elite for the next decade as he is Josh Allen, Jr. and he is as tough as they come. Maye is hitting an incredible (57%) on deep passes over 20 yards. He is completing (72%) of his passes this season and is averaging (8.9) yards per pass, and is also a very legit running threat and he’s already gotten 283 rushing yards and 21 rushing first downs (most rushing first downs on the team). He does have 5 interceptions but he’s definitely not afraid to throw into tiny windows of coverage.
The Jets on the other hand have a QB with passing stats that look like he’s the Navy QB. He’s been sacked (25x) on just 203 pass dropbacks. That is a horrific 1 in 8x he’s being sacked as he seems to not realize you are allowed to throw the ball away. He has just 1 interception all season (came last week) but he rarely will throw a pass into tight coverage. It’s nearly impossible to complete only 6 passes in a full start and even more wild that the wide receivers only caught one pass the entire game last week.
He has full games of just 54, 46, 45 and even just 27 total passing yards. It’s nearly impossible to pull this off in a league where many Defenses play 7 yards back off the receivers at the line of scrimmage. Jets QB’s have been sacked 34x and 18x the past 4 weeks combined.
THE JETS ARE SETTING RECORDS FOR ALL WRONG REASONS!
We are now past the halfway point to this 2025 season and the Jets Defense has ZERO interceptions and just 1 fumble recovery. All but one of those games was with 2 studs CB S. Gardner and DT Q. Williams, both now traded and no longer on the team. The Jets dig themselves into a deep hole heading into Halftime (-78 points in first halves this season) and then when we see the great HC’s make solid adjustments at Halftime after seeing what was happening we see the Jets go out and score a joke 25 total points in the third quarter. Glenn is by far one of the 3 worst HC’s in the league. CLUELESS!
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT PRIME TV GAME!
1). NY JETS: Last 6 on Road went “OVER” the Total.
2). PATRIOTS: Just (7-15) Straight up last 22 vs. Losing teams.
3). NY JETS: Only have 2 losses all season by over this 13 point spread here.
4). NY JETS/PATS: 5 of the last 6 meetings went “UNDER” the Total.
GARY’S “FINAL PASS”:
If you have read all my articles you know I am not a big fan of teams laying 2 Touchdowns in the NFL for many reasons and you can simply look at the Jets 2 Special Teams TD’s last week that would ensure you likely can’t cash your betting ticket. I won’t be in play here but as bad as the Jets have been this season they only lost by 2 points against two very strong teams in Denver and Tampa Bay and again they have only lost 2x all season by the 13 point spread here tonight. During the Patriots 7 game win streak their average margin of victory is (12.3) points, again under this 13 point spread.
About 4 weeks ago I posted the Patriots QB Drake Maye as one of my 2 “Stock Up” picks of the week as I saw on tape how he had finally learned how to set his feet in the pocket and it was putting his game close to elite level. He still is sacked a lot as he wants to always make a big play on every passing play and he’s thrown some bad interceptions but this kid is only in Year 2 and he’s a star right now. The Patriots Offense has been solid the past 7 weeks but they have turned the ball over 5x the past 3 games. Maye has a good streak and a bad one going as he’s passed for 2 TD’s in 5 straight games but he’s also thrown an Interception the past 3 games and been sacked a whopping 35x.
The Jets Defense isn’t terrible by any means and they actually are strong vs. QB’s who like to throw quickly (5th best) and when Maye has thrown passes in (2.5) seconds or less he is #1 in the league which means who wins this battle may be the major difference who covers the spread. The other key factor is the Jets O.L. simply can’t pass block (at record levels as well) and I can never find myself betting QB Fields at any point spread. The Jets will also now be without their only legit pass receiving weapon WR G. Wilson. It’s now almost all new receivers and RB B. Hall. The Pats stuff all RB’s so I can’t see how Hall has a big game rushing the rock here!
FINAL PREDICTION
I see less than a 5% chance of the Jets winning this game and right now the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders. The Defense is making huge strides and I’d expect lots more tackles for loss in this game vs. hapless Jets Offensive Line. The Jets are also on a short week and on road but this isn’t a long road trip so no huge gain to the Patriots side some teams get hosting these Thursday night games. The Jets have stayed within a TD in 7 of their 9 games which shows me they aren’t my Commanders. The last 2 Patriots wins are by a combined 6 points.
Seven of the Patriots 10 games so far have been close and decided by just a TD or less. The public is pounding the Patriots and the Under as of Wednesday night. I will sit on the sidelines again like I did Monday night as I see no real edge to betting either side or the total. The good thing is it’s almost impossible to have a worse Offensive game than we saw Monday between the Eagles and Packers.
Enjoy the game and always remember you do NOT have to bet every single game. And my TIP FOR THE WEEK is: “DO NOT BET PARLAYS”!!!
FINAL NOTE: You can get all of Gary’s Football Betting Magazine NFL Stat Pages free of charge at: GARYWINS.COM
