RANT SPORTS – FIESTA BOWL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUARTERFINAL
PENN STATE VS. BOISE STATE
Tempe, Arizona, is the site of a quarterfinal College Football Playoff matchup between Penn State and Boise State. The Group of Five champion from the Mountain West Conference (MWC) gets its opportunity to face the Big Ten runner-up. Boise State boasts the nation’s best running back, Ashton Jeanty, who finished as the runner-up in Heisman voting. The Nittany Lions counter with a run defense that allows just 3.1 yards per carry.
Who will prevail in this clash between the Big Ten and the MWC? Let’s break it down and see which team will punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Boise State Overview
The Boise State offense revolves around Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 2,497 yards with a 7.3-yard-per-carry average. He was undoubtedly a workhorse, tallying 344 carries over the season. The gap between Jeanty and the second-best running back in the country is a staggering 803 yards. No matter how you slice it, that’s a dominating performance, regardless of the competition.
Oddly enough, at 12-1, many regard the Broncos’ best performance as their 37-34 loss to undefeated Oregon. Boise outgained the Ducks in that game, 369-352, with two Oregon kick-return touchdowns proving to be the difference. Jeanty tallied 192 yards on 25 carries with three touchdowns in the contest. This result is why Boise State is a particularly intriguing double-digit underdog (11-point dog).
Can Boise replicate this performance and knock off Penn State?
Let’s examine the highs and lows of their season:
At 6-0, they earned a solid road win at UNLV, 29-24, in a first-place showdown, though Jeanty was bottled up for much of the game.
Sitting at 7-0, three puzzling performances followed, raising red flags:
First, Boise struggled against Nevada, a team that would go 0-7 in conference play. After jumping out to a 14-0 lead, Nevada battled back to tie the game 14-14 at halftime. Boise led 21-14 entering the fourth quarter and extended it to 28-14 before Nevada scored late. The Broncos held on for a 28-21 win.
At San Jose State, the Broncos fell behind 14-0. The Spartans opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 instead of extending their lead, and Boise took advantage, tying the game 14-14 by halftime. Although Boise pulled away for a 42-21 win, San Jose outgained them 483-456, including 446 through the air.
Against Wyoming, a three-win team, Boise struggled again. Tied 10-10 at halftime and trailing 13-10 in the fourth quarter, they needed a late touchdown to secure a 17-13 win.
The Broncos somewhat redeemed themselves with a dominant 21-7 defensive performance over UNLV in the MWC Championship Game. However, their inconsistent performances leave questions about how Boise will handle Penn State on New Year’s Eve.
Penn State Overview
At 12-2, Penn State has proven it can compete with elite teams. Their two losses came against formidable opponents:
Against Ohio State in Happy Valley, Penn State fell 20-13 in a closely contested game.
In the Big Ten Championship, they matched up against Oregon. Despite falling behind 28-10, the Nittany Lions battled back to within seven points by halftime. However, a questionable deep shot by Coach Franklin late in the game ended their chances in a 35-27 loss. Coming out of the 2 minute timeout Franklin called a deep shot. If it hits Oregon still has 1:50 left. Penn State struggled all night with Oregons offense.
Outside of these losses, Penn State had an impressive 21-7 win over Illinois and a commanding 38-10 victory over SMU in the first round of the playoffs.
QB Drew Allar has elevated his game, posting a solid 21-7 TD-INT ratio and over 3,000 passing yards. Penn State is part of the elite 200/200 club, averaging 238 passing yards and 201 rushing yards per game. This balance will test a Boise State defense that has struggled against less potent offenses.
Penn State’s defense is physical and stout, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. They’ll aim to force Boise QB Maddux Madsen into uncomfortable situations. While Madsen has respectable stats (2,714 yards, 62% completion, 22 TDs, 3 INTs), he struggled against Oregon, completing just 17 of 40 passes for 148 yards.
Coaching Struggles
If this game is tied or within three points in the last five minutes, head coach James Franklin will find a way to lose it for Penn state. However, Boise State’s reliance on Ashton Jeanty may not be enough against Penn State’s elite run defense. Without a long breakaway run early, Boise’s offense could stall, forcing Madsen to carry more of the load—a scenario that favors Penn State.
Ultimately, Penn State’s depth and balance on both sides of the ball should wear down the Broncos, leading to a nice victory for Penn State.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QF PREDICTION:
PENN STATE 34, BOISE STATE 20
