BUFFALO BILLS (4-1) ~ ATLANTA FALCONS (2-2) ~ 730pm/ESPN
BILLS (#3) OFFENSE (154R/241P) vs. FALCONS (#1) DEFENSE (109R/135P)
FALCONS (#7) OFFENSE (137R/226P) vs. BILLS (#9) DEFENSE (146R/154P)
VEGAS ODDS: BUFFALO BILLS (-3 1/2/-4) ~ TOTALS: (49 1/2/50)
TEAM TOTALS: BILLS (27 ½) ~ FALCONS (21 ½)
BILLS TRYING TO BOUNCE BACK OFF A RARE LOSING GAME!
We have another Monday Night NFL doubleheader (Bills vs. Falcons) to keep us all busy and this is one of those rare times Bills and QB Josh Allen are coming off a loss. The Bills have rebounded nicely off of a Loss going (22-6) and if the game is on Road they are a terrific (10-2). The Bills have lost back to back games once each of the past 3 seasons. The Bills under HC McDermott have averaged (27.5) points per game following a loss and are (11-4) straight up. Great teams make adjustments quickly and bounce back off poor outings. Last year the Bills lost 4 regular season games and all 4 were on the Road.
FALCONS FINALLY RETURN FOR A HOME GAME ON MONDAY NIGHTS!
The Falcons come in fresh of an early “Bye” week and will be playing their first Home game on Monday Night since 2017. They are just (2-2) but they have run more Plays than their opponents in all 4 games so far. They come in with the (#1) Defense that finally has a solid Pass Rush (10 sacks and multiple QB Pressures) and the OL has been really good too allowing young QB Penix to be sacked only 5x (#2) and they have been opening some really great holes for the running backs who have flourished on the stat sheets. The Falcons are also a Pac-Man Offense as they are (#2) in Time of Possession which is keeping its Defense from tiring out. The Defense has allowed only 1 scoring drive in the first quarter all season long.
THE FALCONS HAVE FACED A VERY TOUGH SCHEDULE AND BILLS THE EASIEST!
The Bills have been fortunate to play just one Road game so far in 5 weeks and that was traveling on a very short trip to face the NY Jets so it’s really the freshest team of any team entering a week 6 game. The Falcons have not faced one Top 10 Offense and just one Top 10 Defense so the stats are a little skewed so far. The Bills haven’t faced one top half of the league Offense yet (#16, 20, 23, 24, 28) and have faced no top half Defense either yet (#17, 19, 21, 29 and 31). Again they definitely benefitted so far from weak competition on both sides of the ball. The Bills have won the Time of Possession in all 5 games thus far.
BILLS ARE BEATABLE ON THE ROAD!
Going back the past 2 seasons the Bills have lost 10 regular season (24-10) and 8 of the 10 were Road Losses. Last year the Bills lost by 2, 3, 7 and 15 points. The Bills have scored the most first quarter points in the league so far (38) but the Falcons are (#2) in points allowed (7) in the first quarter. It will be huge for the Falcons to slow the Bills early and give their young QB Penix some breathing room in his first ever Monday Night Football start in front of what will surely be a very excited and loud home crowd.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH FOR BOTH TEAMS:
There is nothing better than to watch one Top Offense facing off vs. a Top Defense and this is almost as great as you can see (Bills #3 Offense vs. Falcons #1 Defense).
Both teams have what you could say the best running back in the entire league. The Bills RB Cook has already had four (100+) yard rushing games and he’s second in the league with (450) rushing yards. With the Falcons Defense allowing an unheard of (135) passing yards per game it will definitely be important for Cook to bounce back off a really poor performance last week (15 rushes/49 yards/longest rush only 9 yards).
The Falcons have to me the best two way RB/Receiver talent in Bijan Robinson who leads the league with (146) scrimmage yards per game. Falcons QB Penix loves to throw outside the numbers and he has a strong arm and so Robinson can benefit on simple short passes whether out of RB slot or even more so when the Falcons run the Pony Package and also bring in bulldozing RB Allegeier. Robinson is averaging (15) yards per catch and just shy (5) yards per carry and he has gotten (23) first downs already so he is without a doubt the “Key” to the Falcons success in this game. He is also the main reason QB Penix has only been sacked 5x all season (2nd least).
PRIMETIME NUMBERS TO WATCH FOR THIS ONE:
The Bills are (15-5) last 20 on Primetime games but just (5-5) under the bright Monday Night lights. Atlanta is (7-1) their last 8 Monday Night games but really nobody on this roster played in many of those nice wins.
FINAL PASS:
It’s very tough to make a game prediction here with the Bills leading receiving yardage leader and QB Allen’s favorite weapon TE Kincaid on the very questionable list as I write this. He leads the Bills with (287) receiving yards and (3) TD catches. The Bills Defense will once again be without the heart and soul and playcaller LB Matt Milano which will definitely hurt their run game stops and he is also one of the best tacklers in the league as he can read Offenses as well as any Defensive Player in the NFL.
Although I am not really a Props Bettor since we know both Cook and B. Robinson will be on the field for most of their teams Offensive Plays I would think both go “OVER” their main Props for this game. I don’t really think the Falcons Defense is #1 caliber, so Cook should get back to close or over 100 yards rushing and again the Bills have faced no solid Offenses so far and this will easily be their hardest test of the 2025 campaign, so Robinson should once again have a big total yards from Scrimmage game.
@garybetvegas
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