RANT SPORTS – The Buckeyes have been dominating thus far in the playoffs
Ohio State will take on Texas in the Cotton Bowl on January 10th, with a trip to the national title game on the line. Ohio State has emerged as the clear favorite as these playoffs have progressed, while Texas has consistently been around the top five all year. It will be very interesting to see if Texas gains a home-field advantage, with the game being in Arlington, Texas. Typically, tickets are split between the schools in such situations. Let’s take a deep look at how these two powerhouses match up.
The Buckeyes have absolutely dominated in their wins over Tennessee and Oregon. The Oregon defense is nowhere near as strong as the Longhorns’. That Ducks’ defense was exposed in every game against a good offense. Ohio State, Penn State, and Boise State all moved the ball at will against Oregon. Ohio State will need to be at the top of their game to overcome this Texas front. Although Ohio State has averaged 169 rushing yards per game, they lean on their passing game, which averages 263 yards per game.
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Will Howard has been solid and steady for the Buckeyes; however, it will be interesting to see how he performs under game pressure in the fourth quarter of a one-score game. The defense has been solid all year, with only Oregon managing to score more than 17 points against them. Recency bias often influences perceptions in these matchups, which might explain the inflated point spread favoring Ohio State by 6. After the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan, one might have expected a spread closer to 2.5 points. However, the memory of that loss lingers more in Michigan’s mind than in anyone else’s. I share in this recency bias and would hesitate to back Texas at +6. The Ohio State offense is operating efficiently right now.
The eyes of Texas are on the Longhorns
The Longhorns come into this matchup with two losses to Georgia and no overly impressive wins. It’s worth noting that an average Clemson team was within seven points in the fourth quarter before a 77-yard touchdown run. Similarly, Texas has shown a tendency to let big leads slip. A 31–10 lead against Clemson was reduced to seven, and a 16-point lead against Arizona State was only saved by a fourth-and-13 touchdown. With such results, it’s clear why the perception points to a big win for Ohio State.
Overall, like Ohio State, Texas leans on the passing game, averaging 278 yards per game while rushing for an average of 165 yards. Statistically, Texas appears stronger defensively, allowing 17 or fewer points in 10 of their regular-season games. However, the truth is that Georgia, with a backup quarterback in the second half of the SEC title game, moved the ball effectively. Clemson also moved the ball, and when the pressure was on, Arizona State had plenty of success against this Longhorn defense. Can Quinn Ewers step up in a big matchup against an elite team?
CONCLUSION
Ohio State is the better team here. The Buckeyes have been power-rated #1 all year despite their two losses. Their offense should have little trouble against Texas, and it’s doubtful the Longhorns can keep up. Ohio State wins this game. While I wouldn’t bet on them at -6, I would feel confident including them in a moneyline parlay. Look for the Buckeyes to continue rolling through these playoffs.
PREDICTION
Ohio State 34, Texas 17
