NFL WEEK 5 THURSDAY NIGHT “PRIME VIDEO” GAME PREVIEW
Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025
Vegas Odds: LA Rams (-8.5) | Total: 43.5
Matchup: San Francisco 49ers (3-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
Recent History and Rivalry
The Rams have won the last three meetings, including a two-game sweep last season. Each of those contests was decided by six points or fewer. This NFC West rivalry is always heated, with every game carrying the weight of a two-game swing in the division standings.
Both teams know each other inside and out, which means game plans, in-game adjustments, and holding back a few surprises are always key. The 49ers have lived on the edge all season — all four of their games decided by five points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Rams’ games have been equally tight, including a near-miss against Philly and a late touchdown bomb to escape Indy.
Niners’ Injury Concerns
San Francisco is banged up badly. No QB Brock Purdy, no top receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, and star pass rusher Nick Bosa is out. Those are major holes to fill, and it shows in the numbers. The 49ers have just five sacks all year, zero interceptions, and no rushing touchdowns. They’re (-5) in turnovers, making their 3-1 record feel like a small miracle.
Rams’ Statistical Edge
On paper, these teams look evenly matched: both have Top 5 offenses, with the Niners averaging 280 passing yards per game (2nd in the NFL) and the Rams right behind at 268. But dig deeper and the Rams hold a serious advantage. Their defense has 14 sacks (2nd in the NFL), three interceptions, and four fumble recoveries. By contrast, San Francisco’s defense has been shockingly quiet, registering zero interceptions and zero QB hits in last week’s loss to Jacksonville.
Wideout Puka Nacua (42 catches, 503 yards) has been dominant, averaging 118 yards per game. Against a Niners defense that can’t generate pressure, Rams QB Matthew Stafford could carve them up.
Betting Angles and Trends
The Rams are (+3) in turnovers and nearly undefeated if not for a blocked field goal against Philly. They’ve been strong in all phases. The 49ers, on the other hand, have been lucky to escape with wins given their lack of consistent production.
Money Trend: The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday night games, showing Sean McVay has his team prepared on short weeks. Add in the edge of no travel — this game is in LA — and the Rams hold another advantage.
Head Coach Trend: Kyle Shanahan has had McVay’s number historically, going 10-6 in their head-to-head meetings.
Final Pass
This game is tricky. On one side, you have a depleted 49ers team on a short week without key players. On the other, you have the Rams laying nearly a touchdown in a rivalry that’s always close. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.
I’m taking a PASS on this one and waiting for a cleaner spot to make my next NFL play.
Enjoy the game, gals and guys — and don’t forget to sign up with Atlas to become a Better Bettor. Check back for more of my betting breakdowns each week.
Gary Greene — Professional Sports Bettor
@GaryBetVegas
