PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-1) ~ CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-3)
STEELERS OFFENSE (#29) – (84R/198P) vs. BENGALS DEFENSE (#31) – (136R/259P)
BENGALS OFFENSE (#31) – (57R/179P) vs. STEELERS DEFENSE (#25) – (111R/245P)
VEGAS ODDS: STEELERS (-5 ½) ~ TOTAL: (44 ½)
RARE MATCHUP OF TWO FORTY YEAR OLD STARTING QB’S
Well folks Father Time continues to be kind to a 41 year old (A. Rodgers) and 40 year old (J. Flacco) as they both start at QB for only the third time ever for two forty year old QB’s facing off. This happens due to the NFL severely lacking talent at the QB spot and so far neither Offense has been loading up the stats/yardage sheet as both Offenses are bottom 3 in the NFL. The Bengals Flacco will be making his 26th start vs. the Steelers.
BENGALS SLOW STARTING ON OFFENSE & CAN’T STOP ANYONE FROM SCORING!
You just can’t win coming from behind every single week and the Bengals Offense has now scored only (17) first quarter points and (31) first half points. The Bengals Defense though has allowed (35) first quarter points and (71) second quarter points. Getting outscored in the first half by 73 points and you have near zero shot at all to win games.
It’s even worse being outscored (79-9) in the first half of their current 4 game losing streak. New QB Flacco has not led his team to a game with over 18 points so far this season. The Bengals are one of 3 teams with No Touchdown in first or second quarter the past 4 games.
Last week Flacco, in his first game with his new team, struggled badly out the gate and the first 4 Series were simply atrocious. He did rebound with a pretty decent second half though (21-30-179-2 TD passes) as he started to get in tune with his top 2 stud wideouts Chase and Higgins. I am quite sure the Bengals are at least now somewhat optimistic Flacco can copy the second half this week.
STEELERS DEFENSE VERY STINGY SO FAR & HAVE LOOKED GREAT LAST 3 GAMES
The Steelers can’t rely on an aging QB to throw 30+ points on the scoreboard so they know the Defense must be stingy and this year they allow only (21) points per game but an even better (14.7) points per game the past 3 games. If this Defense keeps playing at that level they can keep from asking QB Rodgers to do things he can no longer really do on the football field as he is averaging a career low (204 PYPG) this year.
The Defensive Rankings show the Steelers at a very bad (#25) as they have allowed (245PY) per game which is bottom 5. But they were missing some key secondary players early on and the Pass Rush has been so much stronger the past 3 weeks (5. 6. 6 sacks) and tons of QB pressures (16 last week vs. Browns QB Gabriel and 8 passes defended). Having what they hoped suiting up in Secondary to start the season is now flourishing finally having them all back.
BENGALS HAVE BIG PROBLEMS ON THE OFFENSIVE LINE – ONE OF WORST IN NFL
It’s very hard for your Offense to get into a good rhythm if you can’t block for the QB and can’t open holes for your running backs. I’ve watched game tapes for nearly 4 decades and this Browns OL is really bad. Flacco went from a really Bad Browns OL to an even worse Bengals OL. I have really struggled with Bengals OC play calling as they run 11 Personnel way too often (74%) considering they need extra help protecting QB and most of the time they have only 1 TE in to help block.
I can’t figure for the life of me why they don’t run more 12 Personnel and help out this terrible Offensive Line with an extra solid blocking TE in there. WR’s Chase and Higgins and one of the TE’s going out is plenty if the QB has a little extra time to get the passes out as they both know how to get open. Losing teams usually lose because the playcallers are clueless.
Another hurdle a struggling OL (especially the RT/LT duo of Bengals Brown and Mims, who are being destroyed by opposing Edge Rushers) and not opening any holes for its running backs and no RB in the NFL has been hurt worse than Bengals #1 RB Chase Brown. Last year he was a workhorse and put up big numbers. This year since the Bengals almost never get any OL push he’s been so indecisive and he’s averaging a pathetic (2.7YPR). Opposing Defenses are in the backfield almost the same time he’s being handed the ball from his QB’s. With no QB Joe Burrow the Bengals play calling has been too vanilla. Last week in Flacco’s first start with the Bengals he passed the ball 45x and only 36 went 10+ yards in air.
Flacco had only (2.35) seconds to pass the ball and that means Opposing Defenses getting solid pass rush (Like Steelers Pass Rush should in this game) knowing you won’t burn them deep nor burn them with your Running game that is non existent right now (57 RYPG – DEAD LAST). I’ve always said when you can’t make big plays you start to force them to happen. Well folks Bengals QB’s are second worst in the NFL with (8) Interceptions. What’s worse is Flacco’s EPA is ahead of only two QB’s, the Titans Ward and the guy he is replacing, Jake Browning. OUCH!
STEELERS TIGHT ENDS AND WIDE OUTS SHOULD EAT NICELY vs. BENGALS DEFENSE!
In the Offseason the Steelers traded for stud WR D.K. Metcalf and that move has really paid off. Adding TE J. Smith was also a nice pickup. The Bengals’ Defense has the 2nd lowest Blitz rate (16%) and 3rd lowest Pressure rate (27%) and for some reason they are awful vs. Play Action fakes as they seem to bite almost every time leaving receivers wide open. The Steelers also have TE D. Washington, so they are solid and should feast vs. one of my worst rated LB corps in the league.
They are missing so many tackles that they already have made big changes to younger guys hoping (more like praying) they can start to tackle better and make more stops and get off the field. So far, to me on tape, only DJ Turner has been really impressive and longtime Pass Rush star Trey Hendrickson (4 sacks so far). Bad News is Hendrickson is very likely to miss this game on this short week after being hurt last week in the second half.
The Steelers have gone to quicker, shorter passes (29% behind LOS) and a whopping (72%) of their total yards have come after Rodgers completions. Why does this stat scream out so big for this matchup? The Bengals Defense has allowed an insane (999) yards AFTER THE CATCH.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME TV MATCHUP TO WATCH:
PITT. STEELERS: Terrible (1-9) Straight Up Last 10 Thursday Night TV games but 4 of last 5 did go “OVER” the posted Total. Cinci has gone “OVER” 4 of it’s last 6 Thursday affairs.
LAST YEAR: Pittsburgh won a high scoring shootout in Cinci (44-38). Pittsburgh has covered the past 4 meetings (4-0) ATS.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Already lead NFC North by 2 ½ games and a win in this game likely starts the Bengals selling off trading players for draft picks for the needed future rebuild when Burrow returns.
BENGALS QB FLACCO: Has not led either the Browns/Bengals to over 18 points in a game this season.
2025 THURSDAY PRIME TV GAMES: 3 “OVERS’ ~ 3 “UNDERS”
ALL 2025 PRIME TIME GAMES THIS YEAR: 10 “OVERS” ~ 11 “UNDERS”
FINAL PASS:
You can usually throw out the records for these longtime hated Rivalries and now it’s a game being played on a very short week. The short week’s travel isn’t bad though for the Steelers who are pretty rested anyway already having their “Bye” week. I know Flacco seemed to settle in the second half last week, but that was when the Packers had a big lead and really more tried to run out the clock and this is against a Steelers Defense now hitting on all cylinders. I am excited to see how the new look Steelers Secondary fares vs. Bengals stud WR’s Chase and Higgins as in the past those two destroyed the now all gone for most the part Steelers past secondary. This one is more equipped with more size and strength to battle them at the Line of Scrimmage.
Can the awesome white tiger uniforms and the home crowd “WILL” this really bad Bengals team on both sides of the ball to a huge “Upset” win and keep them in the race for a bit longer? I would surely not be putting my money on it. The Thursday barking dogs though this year have done well so the Bengals can use any positive they can get as their past 4 games performance is easily one of worst I’ve ever watched in my 36 year career. The Steelers need to start scoring more TD’s and less FG’s as they keep opponents in too many games. Until they do they will need the Defense to be dominant to win games.
I am taking a Pass here tonight as I checked the PROP bets but most were a bit high for my liking. The last game I picked for a national TV Game Preview I selected the Falcons RB B. Robinson and the Bills RB Cook to exceed their Rushing Yards Props and both cashed with B. Robinson doubling it. If you need a wager I’d look to Top 3 Steelers Pass Rushers to get a “SACK” or Team Sacks – “OVER” as they have been elite past 3 games.
Enjoy the game as much as possible, but I don’t expect tons of exciting fireworks in this one.
@GARYBETVEGAS
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