NFL WEEK 10 THURSDAY NIGHT PRIME TV – VEGAS @ DENVER (11-6-25)
By GARY GREENE
VEGAS RAIDERS: (2-6) / (1-3 AWAY) ~ DENVER BRONCOS: (7-2) / (4-0 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: DENVER (-9) ~ TOTAL: (43)
TEAM TOTALS: VEGAS RAIDERS (16 ½) ~ DENVER BRONCOS (26 ½)
L.V. OFFENSE: (#30) / (89R-194P) vs. DENVER DEFENSE: (#3) / (93R-187P)
DENVER OFFENSE: (#13) / (134R-214P) vs. L.V. DEF: (#17) / (109R/224P)
BRONCOS LOOK TO MAKE IT 7 STRAIGHT WINS OVER HAPLESS VEGAS!
It’s not a pretty matchup for a Prime Time TV game this week as we have one team that has lost 6 of its last 7 games and the other team red-hot on a 6 game winning streak. One team looks like a serious Super Bowl contender and the other is looking at picking in the top 3 in next year’s Draft.
The Raiders Offense is as bad as it gets and now they play their first game since trading their best WR (J.Meyers). It’s clearly not been the season Raiders fans hoped for when bringing in long-time winning HC Pete Carroll.
THE DENVER DEFENSE ARE MAKING HISTORY IN SACK DEPARTMENT!
The Broncos as a team through 9 games are (+31) in Sacks Differential and that is the biggest number through 9 games in NFL History. The Defense is easily (#1) with (40) Sacks thus far and the Offense has allowed QB Bo Nix to be sacked only (9x) which also leads the league.
The strange part about the Broncos’ mega impressive (40) sacks is it hasn’t led them to more turnovers forced, as they have only 3 turnovers forced during this 6 game win streak (all 3 interceptions with a bagel grabbing a fumble recovery).
Meanwhile, Vegas is second worst in the league in pressure rate, and their top Pass Rusher Maxx Crosby is at his lowest pressure rate of his career. The lack of pressure has led the Black and Silver Defense to only (3) interceptions the past 7 games. Six of their 16 sacks this season came in one game vs. the worst OL/Offense in the NFL (Titans). They have 1 sack or no sacks in 5 of their last 6 games.
THE ROAD HAS NOT BEEN KIND TO THE 2025 RAIDERS LAST 3 ROADIES!
Vegas has lost its last 3 Road games by 17, 34 and 31 points. Their last Road game is one of the worst all-time games ever played by any team as they only gained (25) rushing yards and (70) passing yards at Kansas City.
The worst part was the Offense was only on the field for (18) minutes as they got shutout (31-0). Overall, the Raiders are the 3rd worst scoring team in the league, so they almost always need the best game possible from the Defensive side of the ball to have any chance to win.
DENVER IS #3 RUSHING THE BALL & RAIDERS ARE THIRD WORST!
If you can’t run the ball, the opposing Defense can send extra pass rushers having no fear you can beat them in that department, and that has led Vegas QB Geno Smith to throw (11) Interceptions (most in the NFL).
Now he must face the best Pass Rush Defense in the league, so it will take a heroic effort by Smith tonight to pull off a huge road Upset.
Denver runs the ball for a very impressive (134) yards per game, keeping QB Nix in a great spot and rarely pressured thanks to a Top 3 Offensive Line that has allowed Nix to be sacked a league-low (9x).
Nix has been sacked only twice the past 3 games, and the other 6 games he’s been sacked only once or zero times. Nix has thrown only (6) interceptions so far all season.
Again, two teams on total opposite ends of the spectrum in the most important categories.
COULD “TIRED LEGS” FINALLY CATCH UP TO THE BRONCOS TONITE?
The schedule makers weren’t overly kind to the Broncos as they will be playing a 10th straight game without a “Bye” week thus far and, of course, now playing this 10th game on a short week.
What makes this worse is the past two weeks the Broncos Defense has been on the field a much too high (69) total minutes, so I’d be a little extra worried that the Defense could be a bit tired here and also without its top Defensive player CB Patrick Surtain, that leaves them a little shorthanded.
The good news would be the Raiders Defense could also be facing the “Tired Legs” syndrome as they have been on the field a staggering (85) minutes the past 2 games and now travel to the hardest place they will play all season in the high altitude of Denver.
The whole world is screaming bet the “UNDER” but over my 36 year betting career I’ve learned you must always be wary with the “Tired Legs” stat.
TOP TRENDS TO WATCH FOR THIS GAME:
1). DENVER BRONCOS: (8-2) ATS last 10 games as a Home Favorite.
2). VEGAS RAIDERS: (1-4) ATS last 5 games vs. winning teams.
3). DENVER-VEGAS COMBINED THIS YEAR: (6 “OVERS” – 11 “UNDERS”).
TOP FANTASY PROP BETS TO WATCH IN THIS PRIME TV MATCHUP:
1). VEGAS TIGHT END BROCK BOWERS:
TOTAL CATCHES: (7 or more) = (+$103)
Note: Last week Bowers had (12) catches for (127) yards and (3) TD’s. It was his first game back after missing (3) games with a knee injury. Clearly his knee is fine now and what a gigantic difference he makes to the lineup as the Raiders average (126) total yards per game more with Bowers in the lineup.
Last week vs. Man to Man coverage Bowers scored 3 TD’s on just (4) targets. When he faced zone coverage he crushed the Jaguars there too with 8 catches in just 9 targets and (81) receiving yards.
Denver will be forced to use their LB’s to cover Bowers with stud CB Surtain (he played Bowers last year in both matchups) out for this contest.
BOWERS TO SCORE A TD: YES (+165)
Note: With top WR Meyers now gone, the #1 target for Raiders QB Smith will be Bowers, and he likely will get force fed the ball inside the 10 yard line.
2). DENVER BRONCOS QB BO NIX:
TOTAL YARDS RUSHING: (20 ½)
Note: Nix has rushed for over 20 ½ yards 5 of his last 7 games.
GARY’S FINAL PASS/PREDICTION PREVIEW OF THIS GAME:
So far this season we have seen more teams win by 11 points or more than we’ve seen teams win by 1-7 points. The Vegas Betting Line is (-9) and would look on paper and also the way both come into this game like another blowout win this year over any type of close game decided by a TD or less.
I understand the Raiders going for 2 points to win in Overtime last week as a Tie did them no good. It’s a huge carry-over lift when you go for 2 and make it and win the game. It’s a huge letdown when you miss and now you know your Playoff chances are toast.
It’s hard to gauge this Broncos team as they sputter along for 3 quarters every week before becoming The Hulk and scoring a league best (96) fourth quarter points (overall 43% of all their scoring this season). Broncos QB Nix has (7) TD’s and only (1) interception and a rock solid (105.3) QB Rating in the fourth quarter.
The huge hope for Raiders fans is one of the few things they do excel at is holding opponents down in the scoring department in the 4th quarter. So far they’ve allowed only (46) fourth quarter points (3rd fewest) and must be dominant here tonight to slow the Broncos Late Game MAGIC.
Denver swept the Raiders last season winning by double digits both games (16 and 10 point wins). Denver sits atop the AFC West in first place for the first time in 11 years this far into a season. They have a 2 game lead on KC and to me are the most underrated team outside Seattle in the league.
They don’t have many superstars but the overall roster talent is loaded. The Raiders overall roster is garbage and this team is 10 good draft picks from sniffing being a contender.
The Raiders drafted stud RB A. Jeanty but so far he’s made no difference at all to the running game. The Broncos Defense is (#2) allowing the fewest yards after contact (0.6 yards) so they simply do Not allow any big rushing plays to occur.
The Raiders were expecting tons of Jeanty carries to be big gainers as he is tough to bring down and gets huge yards after first contact. It’s hard to side with any struggling team as you will go broke doing that and I’ve seen nothing of this Raiders team to warrant a bet with my money.
I normally would side with Denver in this spot as the high altitude is always a huge factor in the 4th quarter (when their Magic seems to happen as well this season), but this is their 10th game with no “Bye” and their Defense has been on the field way too much for my liking the past 2 games and now a short week won’t help their tired legs one bit. Hence the huge advantage is lost this time around.
I will PASS this game and leave it to the folks who MUST bet every game and see if this Broncos team can actually light the fire before the fourth quarter arrives, as they won’t play many worse Defenses the rest of this season.
Enjoy the game and please Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. It’s ok to pass betting on national TV games and wait to place bets where your wager actually has solid value on your side.
GARY GREENE (@GaryGreenwins)
Note: You can get all Gary’s Football Betting Magazine stats at GARYWINS.COM — they have everything you need to handicap the NFL card and save you hours of research.
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