By: Matthew Weatherby
On the Surface
When you look at this game without a lot of depth, you might assume that Georgia should handle business against a Mississippi State team that is 5-4 overall (1-4 in conference). As Georgia comes into the game sporting a 7-1 record (5-1 in conference). In certain respects, the Dawgs might be able to, but this is a Georgia defense that has been leaky in coverage for a good portion of this season. Last week in Jacksonville, they almost had two costly ones in the touchdown to Eugene Wilson III and the controversial no catch involving J. Michael Sturdivant.
Why Mississippi State is Dangerous
Their top two targets in Brennan Thompson and Anthony Evans III, have combined for 93 receptions, 1,369 yards receiving, and 10 touchdowns through the air. For reference, Georgia’s top receiver in Zachariah Branch, has only amassed 474 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
Mississippi State’s deceptive record at 5-4 is also extremely misleading, as all four of their losses have come in conference and 3 of the four were one-score losses. Two of them were games that went to overtime with Tennessee and Texas (both home games). With the other being a two-point loss on the road at Florida.
They have been a tough out for almost every conference foe they have faced. I expect no different from Mississippi State on Saturday. When you add their aerial assault to roughly 61,000 people ringing cowbells, a trip to Davis-Wade Stadium could be a rude awakening for Georgia at 11 am Central.
Why Georgia Should Prevail
Physicality. It’s how Kirby Smart strives to build his teams. When he started at Georgia, he built his team’s starting at both lines of scrimmage and worked from there. That will be no different on Saturday. Georgia’s run game has been much better this year, averaging 184 yards per game. Compared to last year’s 124 yards per game.
This one will fall under a script Kirby has seemingly perfected over the past two years. Survive and advance. They will look to shorten this game with longer drives and a plethora of every Georgia fan’s favorite plays: Screen passes and runs. No, it won’t be Mike Bobo’s fault (and he hasn’t been an issue), it’s just the way Kirby likes the games to go. Grind on your opponent and outlast them.
Why I picked Georgia
Despite all that I laid out in terms of why Mississippi State could upset Georgia, I couldn’t help but look at the season overall for both teams and see how polar opposite the two Bulldogs have been. Georgia has found a way to grind out all of these close games and find ways to win (except Alabama). Meanwhile, Mississippi State has also been in a bunch of similar spots and found ways to lose those close games. Yeah, they’ve been close this year, but that win against Arkansas last week was their first conference win since they beat Arkansas in 2023. I’m sure Anthony Evans III might want a little revenge against his former team, but I think State will come up short in another heartbreaker for Brandon Walker.
