By: Matthew Weatherby
This game is the one that I have the least feel on. If Miami won, then great, I picked them in my bracket prediction. If Texas A&M won, I wouldn’t be surprised either. The issue lies in the fact that I feel like we do not know these teams. They were Notre Dame’s two losses on the season. Their other common opponent is Florida. But between those two games, there isn’t much I can glean from those results that would point me in either direction. So what do we know about these teams?
What I know about Texas A&M
They beat Notre Dame, and had they not, I’m not sure they would have been in the playoffs. But they did so; that’s moot. Aside from that, their schedule consisted of the entire bottom half of the SEC and Texas. Interestingly enough, Texas was the lone SEC team not in the bottom half of the conference. I know it’s been a couple of weeks, so people may not remember, but Texas stomped them in Austin. You have to have questions about the Aggies, based not only on their schedule but also on their recent play. They narrowly escaped South Carolina’s upset bid 2 weeks before that Texas game.
From a talent profile, Texas A&M looks the part. Marcel Reed was always a dangerous runner, but this year he has developed more as a passer. That is the part that makes me nervous about A&M, which is when I referenced their shaky play as of late; it is because Reed has not looked the same while throwing the football. But if Reed is going to right the wrongs, he has the right receivers to do so. K.C. Concepcion has been fantastic this year, and Mario Craver is one of the fastest receivers in college football. It will be interesting to see this offense, especially with the added knowledge that Offensive Coordinator Collin Klein is headed to Kansas State after this playoff run.
We know a lot more about Texas A&M’s defense. That’s actually something they have in common with Miami. Taurean York and Cassius Howell have been great this year. York earned All-SEC Third-Team honors, and Howell was named a First-Team All-American. They throw different looks at you, especially on 3rd down, as they are first in the nation in 3rd down conversion rate. They have not been a great turnover team all year, but if they can get Miami into those obvious passing situations, Carson Beck has been known to force throws. He has had an interception problem dating back to his time at Georgia.
What I know about Miami
Similar to Texas A&M, I know for certain what their defense will bring to the table. They have been consistent on that side of the ball all year. In fact, in Miami’s 2 losses, the defense was at a disadvantage due to Carson Beck throwing multiple interceptions in both games. Against Louisville, he had 4, and against SMU, he threw 2. So when they have been put on level ground, the defense does its job. It should also be of note that Miami is tied for 25th in the country in forced turnovers with 20 on the season. For comparison, Texas A&M is tied for 118th with 9 forced turnovers.
Miami’s lines of scrimmage are both really big and really physical. That has not changed throughout the year. But Miami is in a similar situation to Texas A&M in that save the Notre Dame game. They did not beat the two best teams on their conference schedule. That’s even scarier when you consider the fact that they play in the always daunting ACC. (Yes, Louisville is better than Pitt, and if you disagree, use the same logic Miami used to get into the playoffs; Head to Head) So while they “finished strong,” I have a lot more to learn about them on Saturday.
As for the offense, they have not been a great running team all year. They are ranked 77th in rushing offense. Which is surprising given the size and physicality I talked about along their offensive line. Which is important because last year at Georgia, Carson Beck also had a running game ranked in the 70’s nationally. He had an interception problem last year at Georgia, and it has carried over in Miami’s losses. But Beck has been a better quarterback overall this year. He has thrown fewer picks with a higher completion percentage. Now we see if Kyle Field will rattle him…
Final Thoughts + Prediction/Line
I am curious what kind of game we get. From everything I have found in researching the game, it looks like a defensive battle. If it were to go into a shootout, I would think that favors A&M. Kyle Field must be a factor in this game, even though it is a noon kickoff.
When I made my bracket prediction, I picked Miami to win. Literally nothing has changed between now and then, except that my knowledge of these teams has gotten a bit better. They are extremely evenly matched. But the image I have in my head is this season when Miami needed Carson Beck to come back and win them football games; he didn’t deliver. I do not trust Carson Beck to walk into that environment against that A&M pass rush and Mike Elko’s defense and win Miami this game. Give me the Aggies
Prediction: Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M -3, Miami +130
Total: 47.5
