Let ’em Run Review & Preview – Belmont at the Big A and Keeneland 10/18/25
Let ’em Run is looking to keep the momentum rolling after a strong run of insight and near-misses in recent weeks. We’ve been right there, knocking on the door with our Pick 5 plays, and it feels like that big score is right around the corner. The team’s been locked in, reviewing patterns, pace setups, and those subtle trip notes that make the difference between 4 out of 5 and cashing the whole ticket. Confidence is growing, and this weekend’s card offers some juicy setups we’re eager to attack.
This week, we’ll shift our focus to Belmont at the Big A, where the late Pick 5 includes four Turf races — exactly the kind of challenge we love to break down. John and I will also take a close look at The Lexus Raven Run (Grade 2, 7 Furlongs on the dirt, Race 9 at Keeneland). It’s a loaded field of 12, with three AE’s waiting in the wings, and value will absolutely be there for those willing to dig deep. So make sure to tune into our Podcast on Saturday at 12:30 PM on Capital Sports Network YouTube, where we’ll have live insights, betting angles, and final thoughts after scratches and track updates.
Belmont at the Big A
Race 7 – 3:25 EST – 1 ⅛ Mile Turf – The Sands Point (G2) – $200K
Top Pick: #6 Pretty Picture (7-2) – Second entry for trainer Chad Brown. Won first out impressively and followed up with another win in the slop when they were looking for turf again. Jockey Dylan Davis jumps aboard, and she looks to be the one to beat.
Top Contender: #5 Ready for Candy (2-1) – The only entrant with a win at this venue on turf and at this distance. Hot trainer Phillip Antonacci has her sharp, hitting at 40%.
Race 8 – 3:58 EST – 6 Furlongs Turf – Alw50K
Top Pick: #10 Let It Ride (3-1) – Likely to get a jump on this field; underrated jockey Sahin Civaci takes the reins, and BSFs are very consistent.
Top Contender: #1 Live High Live Low (5-2) – Manny Franco gets back aboard, taking a big class drop. #1 Prime Power and the rail say yes.
Note: #11 Java Buzz (8-1) – This AE would be my speed play of the day if she gets in. Likes the turf here and has the highest Timeform Early Pace — by a lot. Ricardo Santana Jr. knows how to win up front and did just that two back.
Race 9 – 4:27 EST – 1 Mile Dirt – Alw50K
Top Pick: #9 Light the Way (3-1) – The trifecta of #1 Prime Power, trainer Linda Rice, and jockey Kendrick Carmouche will sway me. Two back, ran second to Baby Yoda.
Top Contender / Long Shot Play: #2 Tabeguache (30-1) – Didn’t like the mud or turf in his last two. Back on a fast track here. Three races back, won by eight — could fit well in this spot.
Race 10 – 4:55 EST – 1 1/16 Mile Turf – Alw50K
Top Pick: #10 Walley World (9-2) – Uber-consistent type for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Loves BAQ turf and distance, and Manny Franco jumps aboard this class dropper.
Top Contender: #6 Risk Manager (4-1) – Michael Maker is 50% on drops off a win (6-for-12). Flavien Prat gets the mount, and that angle might hold again.
Race 11 – 5:23 EST – 6 Furlongs Turf – Alw50K
Top Pick: #10 Blossoming Erudite (5-1) – Has to overcome a tough post, but Ricardo Santana Jr. is the right guy for the job. Loves BAQ turf and this distance.
Top Contender: #6 Cyane (5-2) – Could find the front end with aggressive Manny Franco staying aboard. Found traffic last time before making her move. Trainer Brad Cox and Franco click at 30%.
Keeneland Race of the Day – Race 9 – 5:16 EST – The Lexus Raven Run (G2) – $400K
A full field of 12 is likely to greet bettors, with three AEs almost guaranteeing big-time value. We could make a case for several runners, but we’re landing on #11 Quietside (4-1). Dropping from the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks into this race with Jose Ortiz aboard. One of only three runners with Keeneland experience — and the only one to hit the board (3rd). Didn’t like the off track last out, and she’ll track the early speed from a perfect stalking position. The workout pattern fits how trainer John Ortiz preps his runners to fire big.
Final Thoughts
Tune in Friday at 3 pm for our Happy Hour show, and then again Saturday at 12:30 on Capital Sports Network-Youtube, Facebook, X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram-where John Kostin and I will break down Keeneland and Belmont at the Big A with full analysis after scratches and updates for the Pick 5.
Also, stay tuned — Let ’em Run is putting together a big Breeders’ Cup preview show on Thursday 10/30/25 and Friday 10/31/25 featuring special guests and insider insights.
And as always, Let ’em Run.
