NFL WK 8 ~ THURS. NIGHT PRIME TV PREVIEW ~ VIKINGS AT CHARGERS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-3) ~ (2-1) AWAY *** LA CHARGERS (4-3) ~ (2-2) HOME
MINNY (#20) OFFENSE: (104R)/(215P) vs. LAC (#13) DEFENSE: (124R)/(192P)
LAC (#4) OFFENSE: (111R)/(262P) vs. MINNY (#9) DEFENSE: (115R)/(184P)
VEGAS ODDS: LA CHARGERS (-3 ½) ~ TOTAL: (44 ½)
PIVOTAL GAME FOR BOTH TEAMS AS WE REACH MIDWAY POINT TO SEASON!
Well if you are a Vikings fan I can save you from reading further as the Vikings have not won or lost B2B games all season trading a win one week to a loss the following week with perfection thus far. So the Vikings are off a Loss so congrats Purple Backers, you are the winner of this contest. Ahhh, if it were all so simple. It’s never easy to play on the short week Thursday games for any teams but when you are the visitor it’s a lot rougher as you have to hop on a plane and check into a hotel while you try and recover all the bumps and bruises from just a couple days prior.
Good news for Vikes fans is they did have their “Bye” week just 2 weeks ago and they enter Week 8 and this is only their second true Road game of the season. They went on the Road to start the season and beat the Bears (27-24) with a fantastic second half comeback.
The Chargers started the season off looking like maybe the best team in the NFL as they knocked off the KC Chefs in pretty impressive fashion, then won their next 2 games to start (3-0) and expectations were flying through the roof. But the last 4 games have caused lots of concern as they have won just one of those four games, and the one victory was over the hapless Dolphins on a last play of the game FG to win by just 2 points. All of a sudden this Chargers team has all kinds of chinks in their armour.
VIKINGS KEEP QB WENTZ AS STARTER HOPING HE STAYS PERFECT ON TNF!
I am not sure what to make of this Vikings team right now as they clearly are well coached and have an elite WR duo with Jefferson and Addison. It’s not talked about but the loss of #1 RB Cook has thrown off this Offense for most of the season thus far. Backup RB Mason has been decent with (4.5YPR) and 4 TD’s but the Run game has only 1 explosive run all year (24 yards). Vikes QB Wentz has been what you would expect for a guy playing for his 6th team in 6 seasons.
In 4 games he’s made some splashy plays throwing for some long TD’s (36, 81, 38 and 40 yards). Last week down 7 to the Eagles he threw a Pick-6 that turned out to be just too much of a deficit to overcome. He is nursing a bad left shoulder and at times looks very old/slow in the pocket as he’s been sacked 14x and he’s tried to make too many “miracle” plays and has 4 Interceptions to only 5 TD passes. He does have two (300+) yard passing games but one was when the team was way down to the Steelers in Dublin.
Like the Eagles game, when down (14-6) to the Steelers, Wentz threw a bad interception that quickly resulted in a Steelers TD and (21-6) lead, again a lead the Vikings could never recover from. It’s hard to give credit for big yardage passing games when you get lots of them when you are way behind and Prevent Defense is being played against you. When life brings you lots of rotten apples though you always find one that is ripe and Wentz is a Perfect (7-0) on Thursday Night Prime Time TV games. So I am saying “Vikings fans you do have a chance”!
CHARGERS DEFENSE IS COLLAPSING BEFORE OUR EYES THE PAST 3 WEEKS!
If you solely look at just the stats you see the Chargers D is (#13) and they have 6 interceptions and 17 sacks. Not too shabby really and I wish my Commanders had these stats. But the past 3 weeks it’s been tons of missed tackles, players out of position a lot, especially on the bigger plays. Last week vs the Colts they allowed all three 4th down plays to be converted, 4 TD’s in 5 Red Zone trips and 3 weeks ago they were outscored (27-0) after the first quarter vs. the Commanders.
They have allowed their last 3 opponents to score at least 27 points. They only have one fumble recovery all season so far. They are dead last in Yards Per Pass allowed the past 3 weeks and now face a Vikings Offense loaded with elite playmakers. This is NOT the LAC Defense I was expecting to see this season.
CHARGERS OFFENSE WENT FROM RUN FIRST TO PASS LIKE CRAZY!
The Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh has always been a smash mouth run the ball head coach. But somehow this season the Chargers have passed the ball (60%) of the time (2nd most in the league). Now they have been behind pretty big a few games (Commanders, Colts) so that has been part of the reason but it’s also been the health of the Offensive Line that has been the major reason. It’s been a MASH ward for an OL that came into the season looking like a Top 5 OL.
Though this could be a week for Bolts fans to rejoice again as their stud LT Alt (who missed last 3 games) could return and also their solid RT Pipkins (missed last 2 games) could return as well. If both return I fully expect their gameplan to get back to running it more and trying to wear down the traveling Vikes D on the short week.
CAN THE VIKINGS SECONDARY REBOUND OFF BRUTAL DISPLAY LAST WEEK?
For the Vikings Defense, and especially their Secondary, this short week came at the perfect time. Last week the Eagles struggling Offense/QB went to Minnesota and completed 5 passes for (25+) yards and a perfect passer rating to Hurts in the process. The Vikings Defense, much like the Chargers Defense of late, seems to be totally out of position on too many plays and getting burned for them badly.
The Vikings Defense is one of the better Pass Pressure Rate teams (3rd in NFL) and should fare very well vs. LAC QB Herbert who has been pressured the second worst (30.5%) but it’s tough to win if you don’t create turnovers.The Vikings have the goose egg (0) with Defensive Turnovers the past 3 weeks and just 2 Interceptions the entire season. In fact they have 5 of their 7 turnovers in one game this year. This is alarming more so due to the fact the Defense’s Top 3 Pressure rates that last year helped them lead the league with (33) turnovers forced.
BOTH TEAMS HAVE REALLY DOMINATED THE TIME OF POSSESSION!
The Chargers Offense has really held the ball keeping it 34 mins of the 60 all of the past 3 games. The Vikings Offense has held the ball for 34 minutes two of its last 3 games. So neither team really comes into this game with “Tired legs”. The Chargers are (+29) total plays the past 3 games combined and the Vikings a very solid (+27) total plays as well. It’s likely what team wins this stat will be tonight’s winner.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS PRIME TV GAME OF THE WEEK:
1). MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Last 4 games this season went “OVER” the Total.
2). MINNY & LAC: Both teams have played 6 “OVERS” and 1 “UNDER” on TNF games.
3). MINNY DEFENSE: Held its first 5 opposing QB’s under 200 yards passing (L/wk:316).
4). LA CHARGERS: Have not cashed a ticket in the past 4 weeks (0-4 ATS).
TOP “PROP BET” MISMATCH FOR THIS GAME:
The Vikings Defense has struggled to stop opposing WR’s and since the start of the 2024 season they are second worst allowing (13.3) catches per game and now they will face a really solid Chargers WR group that has been elite with (13.5) catches per game since the start of the 2024 season.
FINAL PASS:
This is a very intriguing matchup as neither can really afford another loss this early into the season. Being one of the best Professional Sports bettors for the past 36 years I’ve learned every hard lesson in the books along the way. One of the major rules to stay an elite winner betting for a living is you don’t ask struggling teams to all of a sudden play a great game this week. Many folks say the same line about struggling teams “Oh they are DUE”. My reply is “Yeah they are due, Due to lose Again”. I am stunned these two very talented Defenses are struggling to create turnovers this season.
I don’t make bets for the fun of it, I make bets to win at a very high rate. I would be very wary of Vikings QB Wentz bad shoulder holding up leaving a very untested backup to help you cash your bet ticket in. Both teams come in with way too many flaws this season and especially the past few games so I would lean to OVER bets on the top Wide Receivers in this game:
(1). VIKINGS WR JJ JEFFERSON: Topped 100 yards 2 of last 3 and seems to be in that groove getting wide open a lot past 3 games. He’s just remarkable after the catch with (208) already this season and averaging (15.5) yards per catch.
(2). VIKINGS WR ADDISON: Missed part of season but on tape it proves he’s got a really good rapport with QB Wentz who is now looking to target him more each week. He’s already topped 100 yards (114, 128) twice in just 3 games played and was targeting a dozen times last week. He also is superb with a (15.7) yards per catch average.
(3). LA CHARGERS TRIO: ALLEN, Q. JOHNSTON, McCONKEY:
All 3 have made exciting big catches so far this season and having 3 solid weapons to pass the ball to has aided QB Herbert to some huge passing games (391-last week, 304, 270, 263 and 236) it’s a little harder from week to week though to peg which one will have the biggest Catches/Yards game.
The LAC really don’t have much of a Home field advantage as their ticket holders sell their tickets and most of the time it’s to all the opponent’s fans and it’s shown on the scoreboard as they won once in three tries this season (by 3, losses by 17 and 14) and last year their final 3 home games they won by 7 and lost by 23 and 7. No wins over a TD and laying 3 and hook (-3 ½) here makes for a bet made behind the 8 ball. Well folks thanks for reading and enjoy the game and check back often for in-depth previews of all the NFL national TV games ahead and also check back for my other very helpful Betting Articles each week – all to hopefully help you win more of your wagers this football season.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
@GARYGREENEWINS
Gary Greene is a Professional Sports Bettor and Publisher of the Bluebook Football Betting Magazine for nearly 4 decades in Las Vegas appearing in over a dozen Vegas Sportsbooks and on over 10k Sports Betting Radio Shows.
Get all of Gary’s NFL Stats Pages at: GARYWINS.COM
