NFL WEEK 9 THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW ~ RAVENS @ DOLPHINS
BALTIMORE – (2-5) – (2-0 ROAD) vs. MIAMI: (2-6) – (1-2 HOME)
BALT offense: (#20) (138R-182P) vs. MIAMI defense: (#23) (145R-199P)
MIAMI offense: (#28) (99R-188P) vs. BALT defense: (#28) (129R-251P)
VEGAS ODDS: BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7 ½) ~ TOTAL: (50 ½)
TEAM TOTALS: BALTIMORE (28 ½) ~ MIAMI (20 ½)
TWO TEAMS ON LIFE SUPPORT TRYING TO GET A HUGE WIN!
This game definitely didn’t pan out as hoped when the schedule was made but every year we see some teams with lofty expectations simply fail to live up to them. Both teams–Miami and Baltimore–have endured soul-crushing injuries and in turn both come in bottom feeders in most key stats. It’s hard to win even with your entire roster, it’s much harder when you lose your best players. Tonight the Ravens get their MVP quarterback back on the field after missing 3 weeks. As bad as this start has been for the Ravens they are still in striking distance of the Steelers, only 2 games back. The Ravens have the easiest schedule one could hope for with only 2 winning teams left ahead and both Steelers games still to go.
Miami of course lost stud WR T. Hill and really no HC in the league has been worse with a roster that should never come into this game (2-6). They finally pitched a perfect game by both sides of the ball with a blowout win over the Falcons, leaving a glimmer of hope for Fins fans. The problem for the Dolphins is they have a very tough schedule ahead, and being 4 games back of both the Patriots and Bills means unless the greatest miracle ever comes, they aren’t going to any playoffs this season.
RAVENS “D” A MASH UNIT THAT HAS GOTTEN RUN OVER ON ROAD!
We are at the halfway point of this 2025 season and somehow the Ravens waltz in having played only 2 road games all year. They allowed 41 and 37 points in losses to KC and Buffalo. Injuries have been their #1 problem, but running 50 plays or less in 5 games so far is a disaster. They have won the time of possession battle once all season and that has put the Ravens’ mash unit of defense on the field way too much. At times, the Ravens have been down 5 starters on the defensive side of the ball. When this is the case, it’s no shock you are ranked (#28) — tired legs and inexperienced players are a brutal pairing.
This is a turnover league and most games the team that wins that battle wins the game. Sadly for Ravens fans, they have just 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery in the last 5 games combined. Tough to win when your offense is a bakery with 6 turnovers the past 3 games. The bad news for the Black and Purple gang is that they allow an atrocious (409) total yards per game. The good news is the past 2 games that number has dropped dramatically by over 100 yards per game (306).
In these types of games I always chuckle thinking of the movie where the young kid says, “So you’re saying I have a chance?” The Ravens’ playoff hopes ride on this defense being in the range of the last 2 weeks — not the first 5 weeks.
MIAMI DEFENSE WENT FROM #5 LAST YEAR TO #23 THIS SEASON!
Look folks, there is blame to go around with this team and coaching staff. But when your defense allows the most rushes of (10+) yards, then an almost unimaginable dead last (74%) pass completion rate, and then the most receiving 3rd down plays — second worst overall yards allowed to wide receivers — and then have half your games where the “D” has allowed (400) yards or more of total offense, you almost assuredly will be a losing team.
Tonight they will face the best running QB in the league in Lamar Jackson and of course the beast RB D. Henry. This year they have allowed Panthers RB R. Dowdle (206) rushing yards, the Bills J. Cook (108), and the Chargers K. Vidal (124), so if they allow this type of woodshed tonight, they have almost no chance to win. Like the Ravens, the Fins defense simply can’t get the big turnovers to swing games — they have only 1 interception all season.
BOTH OFFENSES SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF LIFE IN LAST WEEK’S WINS!
The Dolphins offense is bottom 9 in both rushing and passing, and in their 6 losses Tua has thrown 10 interceptions. In the 2 Dolphins wins, he threw zero. For the Dolphins to leave with a victory, Tua must have a zero again. When I watch live games I look closely to see how coaches make adjustments. When I watch game tapes on Monday-Tuesday nights, I look to see if teams made new and proper adjustments or did they lose because they didn’t make any.
The Dolphins last week came out with a completely new offense — they used 6 offensive linemen which opened up big gap runs and went to a quicker pass attack with more involvement passing the ball and giving receivers room to make big splash plays. It worked like a charm and completely stunned the Falcons defensive coaching staff that simply never could stop the Fins offense.
The Ravens offense with Jackson in there has produced 30 points or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. He’s gotta be licking his chops knowing Miami has allowed 27 points or more in 6 of their 8 games. The road has actually been very kind to the Ravens as they have averaged a whopping (422) yards per game in their last 10 road games. The big stats though have only produced a (5-5) record in those 10 games. The Ravens have lost 3 straight on the road including the late collapse to the Bills in the season opener.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS “PRIME TV” GAME OF WEEK!
(1). BALTY RAVENS: Last 14 regular season or playoff wins were by an average of (16.3) points per game. This is huge as they are over a TD favorite tonight.
(2). MIAMI DOLPHINS: Have gone “OVER” the total their last 9 home games.
(3). BALTY RAVENS: Have gone “OVER” the total 19 times in their last 24 overall games (6 of 7 this season).
(4). RAVENS QB JACKSON: Last 4 games he played, the total points per game averaged (57).
(5). THURSDAY PRIME TV GAMES: Last 4 all went “OVER” the total.
GARY’S FINAL PASS
When you bet for a living like me, I can tell you that you will never be a long-term winner betting on bad teams. Can you trust either team’s defense to come in and stop the other offense? I have to say I am very impressed (okay, stunned) the past two weeks we saw the Dolphins defense look like the top 5 defense of 2024 as they allowed only (423) total yards the past 2 weeks combined. The Ravens defense out of nowhere held the Rams to just (241) total yards 2 weeks ago.
Even though both defenses played a little better the past two weeks, this game comes on a short week and it’s not shocking the last 4 Thursday night prime games went “OVER” the total. When I get a matchup of two bottom-feeder defenses that rarely turn the ball over (Ravens D has 2 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries all year and the Fins D has 6 games with 1 turnover forced or less) I expect no loss of scoring chances.
The Ravens will get some much-needed “juice” tonight with Jackson returning, and with the Dolphins finding no trouble lighting up the scoreboard at home (*minimum 27 points scored last 8 home games and exactly 27 in each of their 3 home games this season) we will take the “OVER 50 ½” in what we feel will be a high-scoring game with both QBs having huge games.
We have had a nice season and come off the nice 10-point Packers win Sunday night (we passed Monday night affair). Let’s see lots of big plays and lots of TOUCHDOWNS tonight!
FINAL PICK: TAKE THE TOTAL “OVER 50 ½”
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