GARY GREENE’S NFL WEEK 9 “STOCK UP”/”STOCK DOWN” TEAMS REPORT
Each week I pick two teams that I feel their stock is rising or falling. I have been dead right for most of the year with these predictions and betting “ON” or “AGAINST” has made you a ton of money for the next 3 weeks after this is released. The NFL is a streaky league and we are now at the point where the good teams have figured out what is working and will likely (if key injuries are avoided) even get better and those who haven’t will likely struggle (or some even will start the “Tanking” process for a better Draft slot) ahead.
“STOCK UP” TEAMS OF THE WEEK
1). DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos are not the best team at the midway point but they are trending at this point to being one of the best 5 or 6 by season’s end. This team is well balanced and is already extremely battle tested for down the road very important bigger games. They sit at (6-2) and most won’t even grasp they are only 5 total points from being undefeated. Their 2 losses are by 1 (on last second FG by top team Indy) and by just 3 points to another top feeder team the Chargers. They also have 4 wins by a TD or less (8, 4, 2, 1) so they are a team that knows now it can win close games.
One of the key things I look for to being a lifelong winning bettor is how do Head Coaches adjust from week to week, even from quarter to quarter. Is your team ready to come out firing right from the get go and how do they adjust at Halftime when they’ve seen how the game is playing out and what advantages do they have and what do they need to change quickly. The Broncos HC S. Payton doesn’t get enough credit for how good he is and he is a “run first” HC and he has this team on a 5 game winning streak and part of why they have been so successful is they have rushed the ball for (130+) yards in 4 of those 5 wins.
They are wearing teams out physically and by the 4th quarter when it’s “MONEY TIME” they are going in for the killshot. The Broncos are #2 in 4th quarter scoring (85) points, which is second only to the Jets (likely only time I add the Jets in a positive light all season). They have scored (99) first half points so they are usually staying to the game plan and usually ahead. They’ve been fantastic in the 4th quarter allowing only (36) points (5th least).
They have 5 receivers averaging double digits per catch and are (#1) in 2 very key stats as QB Bo Nix has been sacked a league low (8x) and the defense leads the league with (36) sacks. My #1 trait is how does a team control the line of scrimmage? In this case they lead the most important stat on both sides of the ball. This is a “tell” they likely will be in every game the rest of the way. They are (#3) in rushing and on defense they are ranked in the top 10 on both sides of the ball.
And last but not least they have an elite Kicker for when the game is on the line (we already see the Broncos play lots of very close games) and Lutz was (6-6) in October and he is (2-2) on FG tries 50+ yards out and he also has 2 game winning FG’s already too. They are perfect at Home (4-0) and going into the 2nd half of the 2025 season the only thing on the downside right now is their star CB P. Surtain is out for likely a month. This team is so well coached and should continue to rise the rest of the season. STOCK UP!
2). SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
When a team in turmoil hires a new HC I always believe it’s better when they are a defensive coach as that side is the one that is more disciplined and with the hire of HC Mike Macdonald they definitely found the right guy for the job. The defense has held all but one opponent to under 20 points or less in every game but one. Their only 2 losses were by 3 and 4 points and one was their opener. In the 3 point loss to the Bucs they had 2 turnovers and were (7-10) on 3rd/4th downs and had (463) total yards so they were actually playing elite football albeit in a tough loss.
Their offense and defense are both top 10, and once again like the Broncos, they are dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The OL has allowed QB Sam Darnold to be sacked only (9x) which is 3rd best and the past 3 games only (3x). Darnold has thrown only 4 interceptions the entire first half.
The Seattle QB has continued to be the unsung hero as he’s led the offense to (27) points or more 4x and the defense has (23) sacks which is 4th best, they are (#2) vs. the run allowing only (76) rushing yards per game. The most impressive thing about the Seahawks is they are a perfect (3-0) on the road. If this team avoids key injuries and can grab one more solid veteran WR they will stay in contention to win the NFC West and continue to be an elite team the rest of the season.
The schedule also lines up beautifully as they play 5 of their next 6 games vs. teams with losing records. They play only 3 really tough games ahead as they will face the Rams twice and the Colts and they likely will be favored in 2 of those 3 games. The only worry right now is they have two top receivers out (Kupp and Bobo) but they face two bottom 12 defenses the next two weeks so they should navigate fine until they both return. STOCK UP!
OTHER “STOCK RISING” TEAMS: HOUSTON TEXANS & PHILLY EAGLES
“STOCK DOWN” TEAMS OF THE WEEK
1). MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Vikings fans had high hopes coming off a big 14 win season that saw a 9 game winning streak playing in the league’s toughest overall division. But out went the team leader QB Sam Darnold and incoming was the young boy wonder savior at QB, JJ McCarthy. He missed all of 2024 with injury but the team pushed in all their chips believing he was the future and they let Darnold walk. Well folks McCarthy only lasted 2 games before missing all the rest of the Vikings games since week 3.
He had a heroic 4th comeback in the season opening win over the Bears and had Vikings fans thinking he was worth the cashing in of all their chips. Other than that one heroic quarter McCarthy has been a disaster. In 2 games he has 2 TD passes and 3 Interceptions and has been sacked an incredible (9x). He’s only averaged (150) passing yards and hit only (58%) of his passes. He’s been a “deer in the headlights” as the game has proven to be too fast for him thus far.
Now he’s not the full blame as he’s only played two games. Backup QB Wentz has also been terrible as he’s passed for only 6 TD’s (5 games) and thrown 5 Interceptions and has been sacked an atrocious (19x). The Vikings QBs were sacked less than (3x) just once all season. They have 3 games with only 134 yards passing or less and they have only one rush all season for over 16 yards (Mason-24). The offense is one of only 10 with under 100 yards rushing yards per game. They average just (297) total yards per game and the offensive line is one of the league’s worst (allowing 28x QB sacks-2nd most) and they have committed 5 turnovers the past 3 games. You can’t win with all these brutal stats.
The Vikings defense hasn’t helped much as they have forced only 1 turnover the past 4 games and 5 of their 8 all season came in one game (vs. Cinci). They have had 3 games where they ran only 46, 40 and 42 total plays and their time of possession was a horrific 27, 23 and 21 minutes leaving the defense on the field for way too long. Last week the Vikings defense was on the field for (26) more total plays and on the field 39 of the 60 minutes. The Vikings offense only gained (164) total yards while allowing (419).
I see no light at the end of the tunnel for this Vikings team as they simply have too many big things to fix and they play in the toughest division in the NFL and now they must face the Lions, Rams, Bears, Packers and Seahawks in their next 5 games. They likely will sell off a few of the decent players as they now build for the future. There won’t be any Playoff games for Vikings fans this X-mas. STOCK DOWN!
2). CLEVELAND BROWNS – Offense
When you have played 8 games and topped 17 points only once and you are ranked bottom 3 in rush and pass there is a great chance you’d be winless right now. Now the funny part of the Browns inability to score points is the fact that the game the team overall scored (31) points the offense tallied only (206) total yards. They won entirely thanks to the defense that forced 4 turnovers and had 4 sacks and tons of QB pressures.
The play calling has been so conservative as they are clearly playing to “Not Lose” and praying this terrific Browns defense (#3) can somehow save the day. This offense has numerous problems and surprisingly it’s not a turnover problem (only 2 turnovers the last 4 games combined). It starts with the run game that is rock bottom (3rd worst) as they have only two rushes all season over (13) yards. That is not a misprint.
One was by a WR on a sweep play. The top wide receiver J. Jeudy has only (22) catches and the tight ends lead the way with (65) receptions. The running backs have (53) receptions and the team’s longest reception is only (35) yards. This team basically has no gigantic plays the entire season. They have only (7) receiving TD’s all season long.
The team moved on from veteran QB Joe Flacco to give youngster Dillon Gabriel a shot at the top spot and so far it’s not gone well. Gabriel has completed just (59%) of his passes and the passes that were completed are less than 5 yards per catch. He’s been sacked (11x) overall and the past 3 games he’s been sacked (9x) and the past 2 games he’s thrown for only (102) and (145) passing yards. The poor kid has no chances as the OL doesn’t give him much time before the pressure arrives and they never really call any deep plays to force the defense to stop loading the box and sending extra men on blitzes.
Opposing defenses simply have nothing to fear as they know the top options are quick hitter passes (many even behind the line of scrimmage to running backs) to the tight ends. The only person happy with how bad this Browns offense is right now is the backup QB S. Sanders. It’s likely at this point the team gives him a shot to see what he’s got.
The Browns loaded defense deserved so much better but this team wasn’t expected to achieve much anyway this season. Now with the trade deadline looming you can be assured they will trade off 3 or 4 of the guys who are actually producing to grab future draft picks for the long rebuild that is ahead. There will be very little joy in the Dawg Pound the rest of this season. STOCK DOWN!
OTHER TEAMS STOCK FALLING: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS & ATLANTA FALCONS
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