DETROIT LIONS (6-3) / (3-2 ROAD) vs. PHILLY EAGLES (7-2) / (3-1)
VEGAS ODDS: PHILLY EAGLES (-2 ½) ~ TOTAL: (46 ½)
LIONS (#6) OFFENSE: (136R-2236P) vs. EAGLES (#17) DEFENSE (119R-209P)
EAGLES (#23) OFFENSE: (112R-192P) vs. LIONS (#7) DEFENSE (94R-200P)
TWO TOP SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS FINISH OFF LOADED NFL CARD!
Well if you love great matchups this Week 11 NFL card is loaded with some heavyweight gems and it will finish off with two teams we fully expect to be in the mix for top NFC billing at the end of the regular season. Who wins this game will play a pivotal role who ends up with the #1 overall seed.
LIONS HEAD TO PHILLY OFF THEIR BEST OFFENSIVE OUTING ALL YEAR!
Last week the Lions decided to switch their Offensive Play calling back to HC Dan Campbell and wow did it ever pay off in a huge way. They ran over the Commanders piling up 546 Total yards and 30 first downs and 44 points on the scoreboard. It was a perfect tune up for this big battle vs. the Champs who are nearly unbeatable at Home the past few seasons. The Lions have the (#6) Offense but still haven’t matched the type of juggernaut they were the past few seasons. The Offensive Line has had injuries and after one perfect 3 game stretch they have been a very weak link slowing down this train down that has all the weapons to steamroll anyone they face. Even with the OL woes they are still an elite scoring team averaging (34.1) points per game. With these weapons they are always in every game.
EAGLES STILL UNRANKED IN TOP HALF ON OFFENSE OR DEFENSE!
Last week I wrote about the Eagles poor rankings and how they still somehow find ways to win if one or both sides of the ball don’t play great football. Once again they did it last week surviving a snoozefest with Green Bay winning 10-7. Great teams find ways to win these super close games and bad teams find ways to lose them. Even with the (#17) Defense and the (#23) Offense they enter this game (7-2) and a win here gives them a 2 game lead (plus ties w/Detroit) and a share of lead in the NFC with the winner of the Rams/Seahawks game. A loss though really puts them in a tough spot as they will fall behind the Lions and the winner of the Rams/Seahawks. They may not have the gaudy stats of most (7-2) type teams but when the game is on the line they almost always make the big plays needed to get the “W”.
NEITHER TEAM TURNS THE BALL OVER SO TRENCHES WILL DECIDE IT!
The Eagles have turned the ball only 4x all season (only 1 Interception by QB J. Hurts) and really 7 games with zero turnovers at all. They do NOT beat themselves. The Lions have only 6 turnovers all season and only once have they turned it over more than once (it was 2). So who wins the Offensive Line vs. Defensive Line battle will likely determine this game. The Lions Defense has 30 QB sacks (4th most) and the Eagles Defense has 19 sacks. The Lions QB J. Goff has been sacked 18x and very lucky it’s not 30 and the Eagles QB Hurts has gotten sacked way too often (25x) as it seems he often is just slow in the pocket and then will never concede by throwing the ball into harm’s way, always willing to live for another down. The Lions have 11 sacks the past 3 games and with the Birds likely without C Jurgens it will probably be another game with 3+ sacks. The Eagles DL really ponied up at the trade deadline adding Dolphins stud DE J. Phillip, who really made a nice impression in his first game last week with 8 pressures, 2 QB hits and one tackle for loss. I feel he will now unlock stud DT J. Carter from being double teamed and this can really get the Eagles Defensive rankings to climb the second half of the season. The Eagles Run Defense to me is the most improved in the NFL since week 6.
IT’S NOT LIKELY EITHER QB PASSES FOR OVER 250 YARDS HERE!
The Eagles Defense has had some serious issues in the Secondary this year but they have only allowed (250+) passing yards twice the entire season. The Lions Defense has not allowed one opposing QB to hit the 250 yard mark all season.
The Eagles have the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the league as they still live by the ground and pound philosophy and by having superstar RB S. Barkley in the backfield, it makes all the sense in the world. The good news for the Eagles is their Offense has seven (40+) yard plays (2nd in NFL) and are never afraid to call a deep pass play when it’s least expected.
PLAYING ON THE ROAD DOES NOT AFFECT LIONS QB GOFF ONE BIT!
Many QB’s will struggle on the Road especially in the louder stadiums but not Lions QB Goff as he has still completed (70%) in his last 8 straight Road games. For the season Goff has completed a whopping (74%) of his passes and he has (20) TD passes (2nd) and a fantastic (117.7) QB rating as well (also 2nd). He leads a Lions Offense now setting an all time NFL record of 22 Pass TD’s, 13 Rush TD and 6 turnovers or less this far into a season. I personally feel like Goff is the league’s MVP thus far due to he has not had much support from his Offensive Line. The Lions OL is 27th in Pass Blocking win rate, 17th in Pressure rate and 13th in Sack rate. It’s a miracle Goff has gone 4 games without being sacked with this patched up Offensive Line and more so he still seems to find a magic groove every game of 12-15 straight completions. He will lose his security blanket TE Sam Laporta though here so he will need to rely on backups to fill that huge void.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS SUNDAY NIGHT PHILLY SPECIAL!
1). EAGLES: (13-1) Straight Up their last 14 Home games.
2). LIONS: (13-3) Straight Up under HC Campbell on Prime Time TV games.
3). EAGLES: (6-0) ATS last 6 games vs. Winning teams.
4). LIONS: Last 7 games after they scored 21 pts on the Road – all 7 “OVER”.
5). EAGLES HC SIRIANNI: Perfect (11-0) vs. NFC NORTH opponents.
6). LIONS/EAGLES: Last 9 meetings vs. each other all 9 went “OVER” the Total.
TOP FANTASY PROP BET TO WATCH CLOSELY:
1): EAGLES WR AJ BROWN: “OVER/UNDER” 5 CATCHES (+$104)
The NFL has tons of Prima Donna Wide Receivers but the biggest of them all is the Eagles Brown. He has only 31 catches all season and has had games with only 7, 8, 27 and 13 receiving yards (last week). Brown is NOT a Happy Camper. Two catches last week on only 3 targets and once again Brown is voicing his displeasure to anyone and everyone. Now he’s only topped this 5 catches Prop here for this game 2x all season (both only season high 6 catches) but I would fully expect Brown to be targeted early and often, even if it’s short passes to get his head into the game. He’s also going against an average Lions Secondary and I would fully expect the Eagles HC/Brass knows they need a happier Brown if this team is going to have a long Playoff run again this season. I expect he will get his season high catches here in this Prime Time TV game.
PICK: EAGLES AJ BROWN – “OVER 5 RECEPTIONS” = (+$104)
GARY’S FINAL PASS:
This game has all the big names on the Offensive sides of the ball but it’s the Defenses that should keep this game close throughout. The Lions Defense comes in well rested on the field only (101) total plays the past 2 games. They are getting great pass rush (11 sacks last 3 weeks and tons of pressures). They have not allowed over 258 total yards in any of their last 3 games and have allowed only 210, 116 and 195 yards passing in those 3 games.
The Eagles Defense is starting to gel and has allowed under 200 passing yards in 3 of its last 4 games and 8 sacks the past 2 weeks and now has another stud rushing the passer in Phillips to help ease the burden on the secondary a bit.
The Lions QB Goff has been sacked 4-4-5x in 3 of their last 5 games so he can and likely will be sacked 3-4x in this game. The Eagles Offense though has scored only 17, 17 and 10 points in 3 of its last 5 games so they clearly are struggling to put together 4 solid quarters of Offense. They only have 40 points scored in the 4th quarter all season long (3rd lowest) and so even at Home I don’t see them pulling away late here.
I expect the Lions to try and let loose RB J. Gibbs more than usual catching passes out of the backfield in hopes of breaking a few monster gainers. The Eagles Defense has been very poor covering RB’s out on passes so this is one way I feel the Lions will exploit the Eagles on Sunday night. I also expect the Lions to go at cornerback A. Jackson early and often as he is by far the weak link on this Eagles Defense.
This is a heavyweight Title fight in the makings and it should be close wire to wire. Like last week when I said the Packers-Eagles game would be too close to call to make any solid wagers on I feel the exact same with this matchup. Hard to bet against the Eagles at Home but also hard to bet on this Eagles Offense either right now that is clearly not close to clicking on all cylinders. It’s OK to pass betting every TV game and just enjoy a good old fashioned battle between two really good and well coached teams. Enjoy the game and never bet what you can’t afford to lose. Lastly, I do expect the point spread here to move to Eagles (-3) by kickoff so bet the Eagles right now if you like them here and if you like the Lions side just wait as no rush and you will get the better of the line.
FINAL NOTE:
You can get all of longtime Vegas Pro Bettor Gary Greene’s Football Betting Magazine NFL Stats pages FREE at: GARYWINS.COM
