Regression Season Incoming for Two NFC North Squads?
For every team in the NFL that improves or surprises during the season, there’s another that takes a step back — sometimes hard. Maybe it’s injuries. Maybe it’s bad coaching decisions. Maybe they were just overhyped. But whatever the cause, regression is real in the NFL.
Each season, a few teams fall well short of expectations or simply can’t repeat the highs of the year before. Here are four teams in 2025 that might not be as good as you think.
Yesterday, we told you that two NFC South teams could be in for big improvements. Today, it is two NFC North teams that could make a jump backwards, after they faced off in the final regular season contest of 2024 for division bargain rights.
San Francisco 49ers
They were bad last year and supporters called it an aberration, blaming injuries. But maybe it wasn’t. Maybe the 49ers are entering a freefall. A 6-11 finish in 2024 — including 1-5 in the NFC West — might be more of a sign of the future than a fluke.
Deebo Samuel is gone to Washington. Brandon Aiyuk is hurt. Christian McCaffrey is healthy — for now — but how long can he last through a full 17-game season? George Kittle remains, but Brock Purdy’s supporting cast is thinning. The offensive line lost Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore. The defense took hits, too: Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, and Talanoa Hufanga are all gone. And the rest of the NFC West? It got better.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were the ultimate “better lucky than good” team in 2022 when 11 of their 13 wins came by one score. That luck dried up in 2023 with a 7-10 finish. Then in 2024, Sam Darnold showed up and helped pull out 14 wins — nine of them by one score again — only to see the team bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
In their final two games last year — against Detroit with the No. 1 seed and NFC North title on the line and the wild card vs. the Rams — the Vikings were outscored 58-18. Now, Darnold is in Seattle, and Minnesota turns to J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie year with a knee injury. That doesn’t scream confidence. A 7-10 finish wouldn’t be surprising at all.
Pittsburgh Steelers
This wasn’t your typical Steelers offseason. They went all-in with money and draft picks for aging veterans in what looks like a desperate win-now play. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is an upgrade over last season’s mess of QBs — Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Mason Rudolph — but Rodgers is turning 42.
They also brought in Jalen Ramsey and shipped out Minkah Fitzpatrick, a questionable swap at best. Ramsey isn’t the same guy he was five years ago. Are the Steelers better than Baltimore in the AFC North? Better than Buffalo, Kansas City, Houston, or the Chargers? Probably not. They’re spending like contenders, but may struggle just to get back to the playoffs.
Detroit Lions
This one’s all about expectations. If you think the Lions are going to repeat as NFC No. 1 seeds and make a Super Bowl run, it might be time to temper the hype. Detroit still has talent and should be a playoff team, but the losses of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (now with Chicago) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (now with the Jets) are massive.
Both coaches were critical to Detroit’s rise in the NFC North— that’s why they’re now running their own teams. Just look at the 2022 Eagles: they made the Super Bowl, lost their coordinators, and fell to a wild-card team that got bounced in the first round the following year. The Lions could be on that same path in 2025.
