Shifting Tracks, Shifting Results for Let ’em Run
Last weekend marked a change of scenery as Let ’em Run moved our focus north to Belmont at the Big A. The idea was to take advantage of a fresh surface and mix things up. But the track didn’t cooperate — speed did not hold up Saturday, and the adjustments backfired. Meanwhile, John stuck with Churchill Downs and once again put together a sharp Late Pick 5 ticket that nearly cashed if not for a tough beat in the second leg.
Belmont at the Big A Recap
Race 8
The day started slow. Top Contender #5 Sterling Silver managed a 3rd-place finish, but the front-running strategy fell flat.
Race 9
Top Pick #7 Light the Way tried to wire the field, only to run out of steam late. Top Contender #9 Crazy Mason closed well for 2nd, showing that closers were the way to go on this surface.
Race 10
Top Contender #1 Cyane managed a 3rd-place finish, but once again the speed angle didn’t hold, leaving Fred searching for answers.
Race 11
Here’s where the prices showed up. Top Pick #10 Final Verdict finished 3rd, paying $10.82, while Top Contender #7 Dear Dad delivered in 2nd and paid $8.20. If you played them underneath in verticals, you got paid.
Race 12
Finally some success — Top Contender #5 Letmecounttheways scored and paid $5.86, while Top Pick #11 Absolute Smoke rallied from a tough post to finish 3rd.
The Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs
Both John and Fred faded the Derby champ Mystik Dan — and paid the price. With substitute rider Francisco Arrieta aboard, Mystik Dan proved too good, showing his class to win comfortably. Sometimes the obvious horse is the right horse.
Looking Ahead: Adjusting Strategy
The lesson from Belmont is clear: the speed bias wasn’t there, and Fred’s plays suffered as a result. That’s the grind of handicapping — tracks change, and so do approaches. John, meanwhile, stayed steady at Churchill and nearly hit a Late P5 that was one beat away from a solid score.
This Friday at 3 p.m., join us on Capital Sports Network (YouTube and X) for our “Happy Hour Podcast” and “Betting Strategies 101 and Then Some.” John will dive into using the “all button” in vertical bets and how to get value out of feeder contests. We’ll also take a “Deep Dive” into the $1,250,000 Coolmore Turf Classic at Keeneland before previewing Saturday’s Late Pick 5s at both Keeneland and Belmont at the Big A.
Stay tuned, keep learning with us, and as always… Let ’em Run.
