The ACC Can Lose Stars And Still Win Long Term
The looming possibility of Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami departing in 2029 has sparked justified speculation about the ACC’s future. Yet unlike the Pac‑12, the ACC is built on deeper institutional alignment, stronger media markets, and a broader multi‑sport portfolio that gives it real resilience. With committed members like Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech, SMU, Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Stanford, Cal, Boston College, Pitt, and others, the league has a solid foundation to remain a Power Four conference even if some top football brands exit.
Jim Phillips’ Expansion Vision Keeps The ACC In The Power Four
ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips has made it clear the conference will not sit back while others expand. He has repeatedly signaled that the ACC is prepared to add new members to maintain competitive strength, television presence, and national relevance. This proactive stance is the opposite of how the Pac‑12 approached realignment; instead of waiting for bad news, the ACC is building a contingency plan that turns potential losses into an opportunity to re‑shape the league around markets, brands, and events that fit the next media era.
Expansion Blueprint: USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn, Army, And Navy
USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn, Navy, and Army form a cohesive expansion core that would strengthen the league across academics, football, basketball, geography, and TV value. Together, they broaden the ACC’s footprint from West Coast to the Gulf Coast, the Mid‑South, the Mid‑Atlantic, and the Northeast, while reinforcing the conference’s long‑standing identity as a premier basketball and Olympic‑sports league. Just as important, they bring event cities and military‑brand prestige that networks and streamers love.
USF And Tampa: AAU Status And A Booming Major Market
The University of South Florida is now a member of the Association of American Universities (AAU), placing it in the same elite research tier as institutions like Virginia, Duke, and Stanford. That designation elevates USF’s academic profile, helps attract top faculty and students, and aligns perfectly with the ACC’s institutional culture. On the field and in the marketplace, USF is equally powerful: the program is investing heavily in football, opening a new on‑campus stadium, and has already become a ratings force in Tampa.
Tampa is the largest media market in Florida and sits in the low‑teens nationally, and USF’s local football television ratings now outpace Florida, Florida State, and Miami in that market—a stunning shift in fan attention. Add in Tampa’s track record as an event city—five Super Bowls, two College Football Playoff National Championship games, multiple ACC and SEC basketball tournaments, NCAA regionals, men’s and women’s Final Fours, and the Frozen Four—and you have a natural home for ACC championship events and a flagship Southern media hub for any future rights deal.
Tulane And New Orleans: Gulf Coast Brand And Big‑Event Stage
Tulane offers a top‑tier academic profile and a football program that has surged into national relevance in recent seasons. Located in New Orleans, Tulane gives the ACC a Gulf Coast anchor in one of America’s most recognizable event destinations. New Orleans regularly hosts Super Bowls, College Football Playoff games, Final Fours, and major bowls, and pairing Tulane with ACC branding positions the league to own premium weekends in a city fans and advertisers love. From a media standpoint, Tulane plus the Caesars Superdome gives the ACC another rotating conference title game venue that is on par with anything the Big 12 can offer.
Memphis: Mid‑South Bridge And Basketball DNA
Memphis brings one of college basketball’s most recognizable programs, a natural fit with the ACC’s hoops‑heavy identity. On the football side, Memphis has built a consistently competitive program with a strong Mid‑South recruiting and fan base. The city sits at a crucial crossroads, tying together Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, and northern Alabama, making it a commercial and cultural bridge between the Deep South and the Midwest. For the ACC, Memphis adds both on‑court value and a centrally located market that can host events, support corporate partnerships, and help the league own more “neutral” recruiting and TV windows.
UConn: Northeast Powerhouse And New York City Gateway
UConn is one of the truly elite basketball brands in the country in both men’s and women’s hoops—exactly the kind of blue‑blood identity that keeps the ACC’s national basketball reputation ahead of the Big 12’s. On the football side, UConn has stabilized and improved to the point where full‑conference membership is a viable option rather than a liability. Geographically, UConn gives the ACC a true foothold in the Northeast corridor, enhancing access to the New York City media market for events at MetLife Stadium, Madison Square Garden‑adjacent showcases, and broader corporate sponsorships.
Army And Navy: National Prestige And Washington, DC–New York Reach
As football‑only members, Army and Navy instantly boost the ACC’s national TV profile. Their tradition, pageantry, and service‑academy prestige resonate with casual viewers, alumni, and the military community in ways no ordinary brand can match. Navy connects the ACC even more firmly to the Washington, DC, region—already supported by Virginia, Virginia Tech, and potentially SMU’s East Coast reach—while Army offers direct visibility into the New York City market.
The annual Army–Navy game, along with regular conference contests, would deliver built‑in national windows for any ACC media package. Together, these two programs ensure the ACC has something the Big 12 can’t replicate: a unique, patriotic premium product that plays well domestically and abroad.
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Rotating ACC Title Games: Superdome, Raymond James, Meadowlands, And DC
With USF, Tulane, UConn, Army, and Navy in the fold, the ACC could rotate its football championship game among some of the most important stadiums and media markets in America:
- Caesars Superdome in New Orleans – Gulf Coast showcase with national tourism appeal, easy access, and a long history of hosting college and NFL championships.
- Raymond James Stadium in Tampa – Major Sun Belt market, huge tourism base, and a proven track record as a big‑event host.
- MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands – Direct access to New York City, the nation’s top media market, and a perfect complement to UConn and Army’s footprint.
- The new Washington, DC, stadium – A future‑proof capital‑city platform connecting Navy, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and the broader Mid‑Atlantic.
No other conference besides the Big Ten could match that combination of coastal markets, political and financial hubs, and tourism‑heavy destination cities. The Big 12 simply does not have that depth of top‑five and top‑ten television markets or that variety of neutral‑site event options.
Why A Rebuilt ACC Still Beats The Big 12 In Media Value
Even after losing some flagship football brands, a smartly rebuilt ACC would still have several advantages over the Big 12:
- Bigger, richer media markets – Atlanta, Boston, Washington‑Virginia, Dallas (via SMU), San Francisco Bay Area (via Stanford and Cal), Tampa, New Orleans, Memphis, New York–New England (via UConn and Army), plus Pittsburgh and the Carolinas.
- Deeper multi‑sport brands – Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia, Stanford, Cal, UConn, Memphis, and SMU form a basketball and Olympic‑sports portfolio that outshines the Big 12’s beyond Kansas.
- Stronger event infrastructure – The combination of the Superdome, Raymond James, the Meadowlands, Charlotte, and future DC facilities gives the ACC a rotating menu of championship and showcase sites no interior‑focused league can match.
- Academic and institutional alignment – AAU members (USF, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Cal, others) and high‑end private schools give the ACC a profile that appeals to corporate partners, donors, and tech‑driven media companies.
In short, the Big 12 may have recent football wins and depth, but the ACC’s long‑term media potential—especially with the right additions—is significantly higher.
Exit Fees, ESPN, And The Bridge To 2036
If Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami depart before 2036, their exit payments would be massive. A departure in 2028–29 comes with a fee north of roughly $100 million per school, with still‑substantial penalties in the early 2030s. Those dollars, combined with the remainder of the ESPN media agreement through 2036, provide a financial runway for the ACC to expand, stabilize, and invest.
New members like USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn, Army, and Navy could join on reduced shares or even forgo a full payout late in the contract window, allowing the conference to redirect revenue to infrastructure, NIL support, and brand building. Instead of a crisis, the period from 2029–2036 becomes a managed transition where legacy brands leave, but the league reloads and prepares for a massive reset in 2037.
The Post‑2036 Play: Apple, Prime Video, YouTube, And Hybrid TV Deals
When the ESPN deal expires, the ACC will be in position to court a completely different mix of partners than those that were available to the Pac‑12. Tech and streaming giants—Apple, (CEO Tim Cook is a Duke alum) Amazon, Prime Video, and YouTube have massive investments in Stanford and Cal plus Pitt. All three want a shot at live sports content that delivers year‑round inventory in elite markets. The ACC Network could be sold outright or co‑branded with a tech partner that wants a beachhead in East Coast and Sun Belt sports.
At the same time, traditional broadcasters like CBS, NBC, FOX, The CW, and Warner Bros. Discovery (TNT, TBS, truTV) will still want high‑end football and basketball content to pair with the NFL, Big Ten, SEC, or NBA. A reconfigured ACC with marquee brands, top markets, and unique products like Army–Navy and Notre Dame non‑conference games would be in a prime position to negotiate hybrid packages—some games on streaming, some on broadcast, and premium events in primetime.
Notre Dame And The Logic Of Staying Linked To The ACC
Notre Dame’s history is intertwined with many current and future ACC members. The Irish have long series with Pitt, Navy, Army, Boston College, and Georgia Tech; deep West Coast ties with Stanford and Cal; and a more recent history with USF. Those rivalries and relationships make the ACC the natural home for the bulk of Notre Dame’s non‑football sports and a key scheduling partner in football.
Remaining independent in football while anchoring Olympic and basketball sports in a stable, coast‑to‑coast, academically aligned ACC lets Notre Dame keep its brand identity intact and its schedule national. A rebuilt ACC that adds USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn, Army, and Navy only makes that relationship more attractive, not less.
To Big To Fail
Ultimately, the ACC commands too many legacy institutions and controls vital media markets to be overlooked or easily dismantled. Its profile does not align with a mass migration to the Big 12, and its membership strength and media presence ensure it remains a pillar of the next era in college sports—whether or not its marquee football programs stay. Schools like Pitt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, SMU, and Georgia Tech are reshaping the conference’s performance, even as Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami dominate the headlines.
JIM WILLIAMS ON X – @JWMediaDC
