NFL Week 4 “Trendy” Totals
NFL Week 4 is here, and bettors are watching the totals board closely. History doesn’t guarantee the future, but long-term betting trends often point to where the value may lie. Here are some of the most eye-catching patterns from around the league.
Colts and Rams Light Up the Scoreboard
If you’re looking for points, history says Colts vs. Rams could deliver. The last six meetings between these teams have all gone over the total, with an average of 54 points scored per game. On top of that, Indianapolis has gone over in 10 of their last 13 road games against AFC West opponents.
Cleveland and Detroit Keep Cashing Overs
The Browns are another team bringing offense (or shaky defense) on the road. They’ve hit the over in 16 of their last 21 road games. Meanwhile, Detroit has become an over machine at Ford Field: the Lions are 19-5 to the over in their last 24 home games when the total is 52 or less. And when the Lions are favored by eight or more, the trend is even stronger: 8-1 to the over.
Falcons Buck the Trend
Not every team is built for shootouts. Atlanta has been the exact opposite of Detroit at home, with their last seven games as a home underdog all staying under the total.
Chargers, Dolphins, and International Angles
The Chargers bring another quirky stat: in the week following a game against Denver, Los Angeles has gone 9-2 to the over. Miami, meanwhile, has been a consistent prime-time over team, going 7-1 to the over in their last eight Monday Night Football appearances.
For bettors eyeing the London game, history leans the other way. International contests have been lower-scoring overall, with 17 of the last 30 going under. But favorites have done very well against the spread in these games, covering at a 32-18 clip.
What to Watch in Week 4
Despite all these individual angles, here’s the kicker: Week 4 features only two Top 10 offenses facing each other. That means fewer natural shootouts, so knowing which teams bring the right trends could be the difference between winning and losing.
As always, the trends tell the story—whether or not you ride with them is up to you.
1). COLTS/RAMS: Last 6 meetings all went “OVER” the Total (avg points scored = 54)
2). INDY COLTS: Last 13 on Road vs. any West Division opponent – (10 OVERS – 3 UNDERS)
3). CLEVELAND BROWNS: Last 21 on Road = (16 OVERS – 5 UNDERS)
4). DETROIT LIONS AT HOME: Last 24 when Total 52 or less = (19 OVERS – 5 UNDERS)
5). ATLANTA FALCONS: Last 7 as Home Dog = (All 7 went UNDER)
6). DETROIT LIONS: When favored by 8 or more points = (8 OVERS – 1 UNDER)
7). L A CHARGERS: Week after facing Denver = (9 OVERS – 2 UNDERS)
8). MIAMI DOLPHINS: Last 8 games on Monday Night = (7 OVERS – 1 UNDER)
9). INTERNATIONAL GAMES: Last 8 seasons = (13 OVERS – 17 UNDERS)
10). INTERNATIONAL GAMES: FAVORITES = (32-18) A.T.S.
11). Week 4 features only two Top 10 Offenses facing off vs. each other!
