NFL WEEK 7 MONDAY NIGHT PREVIEW ~ TAMPA BAY AT DETROIT
TAMPA BAY BUCS (5-1) – (3-0 ROAD) vs. DETROIT LIONS (4-2) – (2-0 HOME)
T.B. OFFENSE (#12) – (109R – 244P) vs. DETROIT DEFENSE (#10) – (96R – 213P)
DETROIT OFFENSE (#11) – (129P – 225P) vs. T.B. DEFENSE (#14) – (88R – 231P)
VEGAS ODDS: DETROIT LIONS (-6) ~ TOTAL: (52 ½)
BUCS QB BAKER “THE COMEBACK KID” MAYFIELD GOES FOR 4TH ROAD WIN!
Well folks we get another Monday Night NFL Doubleheader and the first one pits two first place teams in what should be an exciting one if for no other reason than Bucs and their flamboyant QB Baker Mayfield is playing. So far this season that means heart attacks for fans of the Bucs and their opponents as well. Tampa’s first five games were decided by (3, 1, 2, 6 & 3) points before finally playing a game last week not decided by under a touchdown.
Even last week’s game vs. the Niners was close for most of the game as the game was (20-19) until late in the third quarter when Mayfield threw a 45 yard TD pass and the Bucs Defense held SF scoreless the final 17 minutes to win by 11. The Bucs have won all 3 Road games and a win here keeps them 2 games up on the surprising Panthers.
THE LIONS SIMPLY DO NOT LOSE BACK TO BACK GAMES!
One of the most insane streaks ever belongs to the Lions who have now gone 50 straight games without back to back losses. They are a perfect (11-0) Against the Spread in the last 11 after games they lost the previous week. They are only playing for the second time in that streak this year and off a sluggish opening week loss at Green Bay, the Lions bounced right back with a huge (52-21) win over the Bears the following week as the Offense gained a whopping (511) total yards and had the clean sheet of (0 sacks allowed, 0 interceptions, 0 fumbles lost).
That is what you call bouncing back strong off a bad loss. Last week the Lions Offense was completely shut down in KC by the Chiefs with only (98 Rush yards, 199 pass yards). The Offense just never got into any rhythm and left KC with a 13 point loss.
THE LIONS OFFENSE LIGHTS UP THE SCOREBOARD AT HOME THE PAST FEW YEARS!
So far the Lions have played 2 Home games and the Offense put up (52 & 34) points and dating back to all their Home games last year they’ve also scored (31, 42, 34, 23, 52, 52 and 42) points. Clearly there is no place like “DOME” for the Lions team. The wild thing though is the only time in past year plus when the Lions really didn’t score a ton of points was their week 2 loss last year, to none other than these Tampa Bay Bucs (20-16).
BOTH TEAMS ARE TOP 5 TEAMS BUT NEITHER REALLY IN TOP 10 OF KEY RANKINGS
Last year it seemed like week after week I was saying or writing about the Lions #1 or #2 Offense and this year they aren’t even Top 10 (#11 right now). What is more shocking is they only faced two Top 10 Defenses all season so far and have faced 3 of the five worst Defenses and still their stats are eye scratching thus far. There are some red flags the Lions have right now on Offense and it’s been the Offensive Line as both Guards (Ratledge & Mahogany) have struggled mightily.
You can look at the positives and see Goff is (#1) in Passer Rating (122.4) and his drop back success rate is second in the league (56%) but the main reasons for Red Flags are the OL Pass Blocking win rate is only (16th) and the Pressure Stop Rate on Goff is only (11th best) at (31%). The Lions have had numerous injuries to its OL so far and so they are mostly having Goff make short/quick passes and right now those passes are only at (6.7 yards per pass attempt) which is 3rd worst in the NFL. We often get fooled as Goff will go on crazy hot streaks completing 15 or so passes in a row but short passes are easy to complete.
FLIP SIDE
On the other side of the ball the Bucs Defense is ranked (#14) although, thanks to their Beast up the middle, NT Vita Vea, they are holding opponents to only (88) rush yards per game. He should have a field day vs. the Lions young Guards in this big MNF affair.
The strangest part of the Lions 3rd worst shortest yards per pass thrown is it’s actually better than last year when they were the league’s top ranked Offense. The great news in this matchup is the fact that the Bucs Defense (5th) worst at covering drop back passes under 10 yards in the air and then (5th) worst yards after the catch allowed. The Bucs Linebackers have been the weak link so far as they simply can’t cover opposing Tight Ends (4th worst) nor are they slowing RB’s out the backfield on passes (7th worst). This is a gigantic advantage for the Lions who possess a stud TE (Laporta) and a speedy stud RB (Gibbs), both who should fare well in the fantasy leagues.
THE LIONS SECONDARY & THE BUCS OFFENSIVE LINE/WR ROOM ARE INJURY WARDS!
The past two weeks, Bucs QB Mayfield (MVP top 3 right now) has passed for 341 and 296 yards. He will now face an almost fully decimated Lions Secondary that is littered with starters out to injury and now even worse off as healthy stud Safety Brian Branch is suspended for a stupid fight at the end of last week’s Chiefs game. The Lions will suit up more than one secondary player who hasn’t played a single snap yet this season.
Bucs QB Mayfield is (#5) in passer rating (108.5) and he’s completed 24 pass plays of 20 yards or more (3rd best). As of this article being written though his top 2 stud WR’s are both game time decisions (although Mike Evans looks like he will suit up). If the Bucs young stud WR Egbuka doesn’t suit up though that is a HUGE loss as he’s averaging (17.4) yards per catch and has (469) receiving yards and 5 TD’s and over and over has made big catches in late Bucs comebacks. Much like the Lions MASH WARD secondary, the Bucs OL will be starting a 3rd string RG and a 2nd string RT (Heck) who has allowed 23 QB pressures on Mayfield (2nd most any OT).
CAN BUCS QB MAYFIELD CONTINUE TO CARRY THE RUSHING LOAD?
The Bucs have also been hurt by an injury to starting RB Irving and Mayfield hasn’t gotten the greatest OL pass blocking (23rd in NFL in OL pass block win rate/24th in Pressure rate) so he’s been forced often to run for his life (24% teams rushes) and he has already gained (264) rushing yards at a whopping (7.2) yards per carry, including 11 rushing first downs. In this game though he is facing a solid Lions Run Defense that really held their own vs. Ravens QB L. Jackson (7R-35) and KC QB Mahomes (10R-35).
As great as Mayfield’s arm has been it’s also been his legs that have gotten multiple bigtime run plays in all these late comeback wins. Mayfield has passed the ball for (341 and 296 yards) the past 2 weeks so even a bad OL isn’t slowing his MVP type season thus far. I think Mayfield struggles for big rushing yards as the Lions stud Linebacker Jack Campbell is the #1 Run stopping LB in the league and will surely be spying Mayfield all game long to avoid any monster rushes although the Bucs aren’t winning with long runs any way as the longest non Mayfield rush all season is 16 yards.
TOP BETTING TRENDS/NUGGETS
1). TAMPA BAY BUCS: Last 6x they won by double digits the following game went “OVER” the posted Total all 6 games.
2). DETROIT LIONS: Four of their last 6 Monday Night games went “OVER” the Total.
3). Last year NFL Home Favorites: (Detroit in this spot tonight) before their “BYE” week played 8 “OVERS” and just 2 “UNDERS”.
4). PRIME TIME NIGHT GAMES: The Underdogs are a very profitable (15-7) ATS so far and last week both NFL Dogs won straight up.
5). DETROIT LIONS: Will finally get back stud DT A. McNeill who signed a 97 Million dollar contract in the Offseason.
FINAL PASS:
We definitely got a really fun matchup for this MNF early game as both QB’s can go off for huge games and both teams possess so many really talented Offensive players we should get an exciting one (heck it’s almost a certainty the Mayfield led Bucs play a close game) but to make a bet is so difficult as both have so many different areas of concern thru injuries or suspension and without being 100% sure who will even suit up and who will watch in street clothes. So making a winning prediction is moreso just tossing a dart here at the dartboard and praying for a winning bet.
I am sure if the Lions had a healthy Secondary and no suspension to Branch I’d be on the Lions. It’s games like these that the Props/Fantasy bettors have so much more to choose from. If the Bucs win here and Mayfield leads to another Comeback win then the Bucs to me are a Top 3 team. It feels to me though somehow the home crowd will “WILL” the home team to a nice “W” before heading off for their “Bye” week next week!
Enjoy the game and never bet what you can’t afford to lose.
@GaryGreeneWins
