NFL WEEK 10 SUN. NIGHT GAME OF WEEK: STEELERS AT CHARGERS
STEELERS: (5-3) / (2-1 ROAD) ~ CHARGERS: (6-3) / (3-2 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: LA CHARGERS (-2 ½) ~ TOTAL: (44 ½)
TEAM TOTALS: STEELERS (21 ½) ~ CHARGERS (23 ½)
PITT. (#28) OFFENSE: (87R-201P) vs. LAC (#6) DEFENSE: (110R-177P)
LAC (#5) OFFENSE: (124R-251P) vs. PITT. (#30) DEFENSE: (106R-278P)
LOADED OFFENSE & DEFENSE FACES ONE BOTTOM FEEDER IN BOTH!
Both teams start the second half of the 2025 season with winning records and the Steelers surprisingly are in first place in the NFC North while the Chargers sit in second place and for the first time in what seems like forever they are not looking up at the KC Chiefs. The Chargers come into this Prime Time TV game with a Top 5 Offense and a Top 6 Defense and the Steelers come in with one of the worst Offenses (#28) and Defenses (#30) in the league. But these games are won on the field and the Steelers will look for another week of Turnover Magic as they look to derail the Chargers who come in off back to back dominating victories. Both enter this game off 27-10 wins last week.
STEELERS TRAVEL FAR WEST WEEK AFTER HUGE UPSET OF COLTS!
Last week I took the Steelers as a small “Dog” vs. the red hot Colts and I cashed the ticket. But it may have been one of my worst handicaps of the year as the Steelers Offense was brutally bad and the Colts must’ve thought they were a bakery giving away turnovers half a dozen times to help the Steelers steal the home win while only gaining 225 total yards and allowing the Colts to gain 368 total yards. The Steelers had 2 rushing TD’s but they ran the ball 23x for a next to nothing 38 total yards (1.7 yards per carry).
They were out first downed 26-17 and went just (4-12) on third down. Their wide receivers caught only 8 passes in the win as most of the catches were to either the running backs out the backfield or very short passes to the Tight Ends as it seemed 80% of Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers passes were either behind the line of scrimmage or 1-5 yards in air. They are one of the worst (5-3) teams I’ve ever seen.
THE CHARGERS DEFENSE HAS BEEN SMOTHERING PAST 2 WEEKS!
When this season started I fully expected to see a Top 5 Defense from the Bolts Defense and right now they sit at (#6) but the past two games it seems as if they have now figured it all out and halfway through the season they have only allowed 5 rushes for 20 yards or more all season. They play nickel or dime coverage a whopping 82% of the time and refuse to allow opposing QB’s to beat them on big pass plays.
They are #3 vs. the Pass allowing only 177 passing yards per game. The past 2 games they have 9 sacks, held the Vikings to just 34 rushing yards and 130 passing yards and the Titans last week to just 88 rushing yards and 118 passing yards allowing just one touchdown and 3 FG’s. The Titans had two touchdowns last week but one was on a Pick-6 and one on a punt return TD.
IF THE STEELERS CAN RUN THE BALL WELL THEY HAVE GREAT SHOT!
In the Chargers 6 wins this season they have held opponents to 90 rush yards per game but in the 3 losses they have allowed a massive 148 rush yards per game. The Steelers haven’t hit the 147 rush yards mark though once this entire season and they come into this week’s game off a game last week that they averaged less than 2 yards per carry (38 total rush yards). Five of their 8 games they have failed to reach the 100 rushing yards mark. The way the Bolts Defense has looked the past 2 weeks, very little chance they even sniff the 100 yard range Sunday night.
THE ONLY THING HOLDING THIS CHARGERS TEAM BACK IS INJURIES!
One of the main things I look at when handicapping any game is Offensive Line vs. Defensive Line matchups and the Chargers have been crushed on the OL more than really any other team as they have lost their two All Pro Tackles for the season. The backups have had their struggles and it’s caused the Chargers QB Herbert to be sacked (29x) and hurried him often into making ill-informed passes that have turned into too many Interceptions (9).
The only reason that the Steelers are (5-3) and not (3-5) is they have forced turnovers at a rock solid clip with 8 interceptions and 8 fumble recoveries and 27 QB sacks for a (+9) in that so important turnover margin category (2nd overall). If the Chargers win the turnover battle I can’t fathom any way this weak on both sides of the ball Steelers team can pull the road win here.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS SUNDAY NITE BAILOUT SPECIAL FOR BETTORS!
1). LA CHARGERS: 8 of their last 10 Home games have gone “OVER”.
2). LA CHARGERS: Already (3-0) this season playing national TV night games.
3). PITTSBURGH: Just (23-38) on the Road when playing in PST zones.
4). PITTSBURGH: Just (4-9) their last 13 games on Sunday Night games.
5). PITT QB RODGERS: Has 21 wins on Sun. Night & is tied with Tom Brady.
6). PITTSBURGH: 5 of its last 6 games vs. AFC West teams have gone “UNDER”.
GARY’S FINAL PASS:
I know Aaron Rodgers is almost always the lead story and with a (5-3) it looks like the Steelers risky investment has paid off thus far but from a tape standpoint Rodgers has given the Steelers playcallers really nothing sexy to call as every play really is a dink and dunk short pass so he can get rid of the ball before his weak Offensive Line allows him to get hit. Their top 2 wide receivers have just 29 and 19 catches. They basically play “Not to lose” the entire game and pray the Defense gets them key turnovers and short fields. There is absolutely nothing to like about this Steelers team.
The Chargers have had a solid mix of run/pass and have kept opposing Defenses honest. Unlike the Steelers wide outs, the Bolts have two receivers right at or near a very solid 50 catches and two more with 32 catches and 7 overall that average double figures yards per catch. The run game is averaging (4.8) yards per carry so this Offense can beat you in so many ways as even QB Herbert can beat you with his legs (over 300 rush yards this season so far). The Defense also comes into this contest only playing 47 total minutes combined the past 2 weeks and should be very well rested.
The Steelers to me have only one choice how to game plan this one and that’s stay conservative and try to kill clock and hang in til the 4th quarter. The big problem is if they don’t have a lead you are likely toast with your bet as the Steelers have allowed (95) fourth quarter points (most in the NFL).
GARY’S PREDICTION:
The one thing the Steelers have going for them in this contest is they may have more fans than the Chargers do as the Bolts fans sell their tickets at solid profits to out of town fans and the Steelers fans travel with the best of them. But this is a mismatch and the Chargers are so much better on both sides of the ball and they have one of the best Kickers in the league as well, so even if it’s close late, you can feel good Cameron Dicker will hit the game winning FG to cash your betting ticket in. The Steelers will be exposed here on National TV and Herbert and Company play their third straight dominant game in a row. Enjoy the game!
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