NFL WEEK 7 ~ SUNDAY NIGHT PREVIEW ~ ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA FALCONS (3-2) – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-2)
VEGAS ODDS: SAN FRANCISCO (-2) ~ TOTAL: (47)
ATLANTA OFFENSE (#2) – (151R) / (227P) vs. SF DEFENSE (#15) – (107R) / (214P)
SF OFFENSE (#6) – (82R) / (292P) vs. ATLANTA DEFENSE (#1) – (114R) / (139P)
SURPRISING FALCONS LOOK TO TAKE DOWN THIRD STRAIGHT VICTIM!
Raise your hand if you predicted Atlanta would be Top 2 in the NFL in Offense and Defense rankings. Ok good none of you as not even the most loyal Falcons fan would’ve predicted this after 6 games. But the Defense has played lights out and to see the number (139) as a Pass Yards allowed by any team is almost unheard of this far into the season but the Falcons Defense is playing out of its mind. They are finally are getting solid pressure on opposing QB’s and have 14 sacks (13 sacks last 4 games) and are once again Top 2 (#2 in sack %) getting a sack and outstanding (11%) of the time. THe Falcons are also (#7) in Interceptions with 7. The Offensive Line plays fantastic, protecting young QB Penix, who has been sacked only 8 times (4th best).
NINERS ARE A HOSPITAL WARD ALL SEASON BUT STILL FINDING WAYS TO WIN!
The Niners bad luck with key injuries started in week 1 and hasn’t stopped yet. Every week it seems another star is getting hurt but luckily backup QB Mac Jones has stepped in and played off charts as he is now the (#1) QB in Passing yards with (292) passing yards per game. Honestly this team could be winless as they have not won a game with their forever patented run game as this season the run game is doing almost nothing close to the norm of the Niners past seasons (82 rushing yards per game) ranking 3rd worst in the league. The OL has been below average as the Niners QB’s have been sacked 13x and then add in 7 Interceptions thrown and it’s a miracle this team is (4-2).
BOTH TEAMS DEFENSE HAVE BEEN LIGHTS OUT IN FIRST QUARTER!
The Niners Defense has allowed just one score all season in the first quarter (TD) and the Falcons Defense has allowed just 2 scores in the first quarter all season (2 TD’s). It’s kept the pressure off both teams’ QB’s (Jones and Penix) as they have been able to ease both into a good flow without getting off the game plans.
BOTH TEAMS PLAYING PAC-MAN DOMINATING THE CLOCK SO NEITHER “D” TIRED LEGS!
Although the Niners are not overwhelming teams on the stat sheet, the past two weeks the Niners have run (143-112) Total Plays the past 2 weeks and have dominated the clock (73-53 minutes advantage). The Falcons have dominated every game they played so far with 165 minutes to 135 minutes in Time of Possession advantage and then a whopping (70-55, 60-40, 66-54, 63-49, 64-50) Total Plays advantage. The Falcons are #2 in the league in both categories, just a tad behind #1 Buffalo in both.
NINERS COMPLETE OPPOSITE OF WHAT WE’D EXPECT SO FAR THIS SEASON!
The Niners have always been about running the ball and wearing opposing Defenses out but this year the run game has been atrocious. The Offensive Line provides little help, and big open holes for the running backs are rare to see.
. Having one of the premier RB’s in the league in C. McCaffrey usually means that the Niners Offense would be in Top 5 range, not bottom 5 range.
But that is where the Niners run game as star RB C-Mac has only rushed for (49, 54, 57) yards the past 3 weeks and stunningly the Niners have passed the ball 80 more times this season then they’ve rushed the ball. Last week again the Niners couldn’t run the ball as they finished with only 67 rush yards on 22 carries (3.0 YPR). The scariest part is that is basically their average (3.1) for the season. You run the ball that poorly you almost always have a losing record.
ATLANTA DOMINATING RUN GAME BUT THATS NOT LIGHTING UP SCOREBOARD!
Most teams that run the ball great (Falcons 151-RYP) will be lighting up the scoreboard as once teams can’t stop the run they are forced to load the box with extra defenders and thus they allow lots of big plays as too many teams have studs at wide receiver and tight end and if you allow them one on one most times the advantage is to the Offensive side and by a huge margin. The one big negative the Falcons have is they score only (20) points per game which is exactly what their (#1) Defense is allowing per game.
TOP BETTING TRENDS/BETTING NUGGETS FOR THIS GAME:
1). SAN FRANCISCO: (0-4) ATS Last 4 Home games.
2). SAN FRANCISCO: Have gone “OVER” the Total the last 11 games following a Loss.
3). ATLANTA: Last 7 games played on the Road vs. Winning teams = (1-7) ATS.
4). SAN FRANCISCO: Five of their six games were decided by 4, 5, 1, 5 and 3 points.
5). ATLANTA: Huge edge rushing the ball (4.8 YPR) to San Fran (3.1 YPR).
6). SAN FRANCISCO DEFENSE: Has a huge bagel still after 6 games the “D” doesn’t have an Interception yet. Only them and the Jets still bagel in the INT department.
7). SAN FRANCISCO DEFENSE: While the Falcons Defense is #2 in Sack % (11%) the Niners are (#30) at just (3.6%). Now the Niners will be without their elite superstar LB Fred Warner so this bad % likely to continue although the Falcons stud Left Tackle Jake Mathews may miss this game (Game time decision).
FINAL PASS:
On paper coming into this game it’s huge check marks to the Falcons in almost all the key categories so the Niners I feel “MUST” get that first Interception of the season and win the Turnover battle. They do catch the Falcons on a short week (off Mon. Night game) and then a cross country trip and a two time zone difference. Although the Niners star RB C-Mac hasn’t put up his patented big rush yard games so far, he’s been a huge pass weapon with two top Niners receiving weapons Kittle and Pearsall out.
C-Mac has (46) catches and (444) receiving yards and has made up for the rushing numbers down with a rock solid (74) passing yards average (8th in the NFL). Good news is it looks like both Kittle and Pearsall will return this week and Kittle will also help finally open some holes for C-Mac in the running lanes as he’s one of the best blocking Tight Ends in the league.
I said last week it was a real “SHOW ME” game for the Falcons as they were facing a hungry Bills team off its first loss and wow did they show me they are definitely legit. They outgained the Bills (443-291) and made Bills star QB Allen look like a rookie. Now they get the leagues best Passer in the Niners Jones but this time on the Road.
True Tell
These matchups are my favorite to watch as they will be a true “TELL” for the rest of the season and nothing beats the top passing team (Niners – 292 pass yards) vs. top passing Defense (139 pass yards allowed). I expect the Niners to be able to run better than they have the past few weeks as Kittle’s return is huge and the Falcons one flaw on Defense is they allow (4.8) YPR and slightly worse (5.1 YPR) the past 3 games.
The Niners inability to turn opposing teams over really concerns me and now they will play their first game without the Brains of the Defense (and one of the best Defensive players) Fred Warner so hard to just expect a huge turnaround when you are actually losing a superstar talent.
GARY’S PREDICTION:
If you bet the Niners make sure to take your heart meds before this game kicks off as it’s to the point now where it’s almost automatic they will play a very close game (again 5 of their 6 games decided by 5 points or less). Both teams Defense’s legs are well rested as they have not been overworked at all so I expect the Defenses to dominate this one as the team will ball last wins it with a FG in the final seconds. Enjoy the game and always remember to never bet what you can’t afford to lose.
FINAL NOTE: Get all Gary’s NFL Betting Sheets at GARYWINS.COM
