NFL Week 8 Sunday Night Preview/Pick: Packers @ Steelers
Green Bay Packers (4-1-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Green Bay Road: (1-1-1) ~ Pittsburgh Home: (2-1)
GB offense: (#14) – (118R)/(226P) vs. Pitt defense: (#28) – (116R)/(31P)
Pitt offense: (#25) – (95R)/(203P) vs. GB defense: (#6) – (77R)/(212P)
Vegas Odds: Green Bay Packers (-3) ~ Total: (45 ½)
Rodgers Faces Old Team in Sunday Night Showdown
I guess if you play long enough and for a few teams, you can have the chance to pull off the 32-sweep. Rodgers, with a win here, will have beaten all 32 teams in the NFL — a very rare feat. As if facing his ex-team for the first time ever isn’t a big enough deal, it won’t hurt either that the Steelers are breaking out their throwback jerseys for this one.
Both Teams Have Winning Records but Big Flaws Too
First, the Packers — who haven’t been that good in any of their three road games this season — have just one win by only four points. They don’t have a top-10 offense or defense, but there’s a major gap between them and the Steelers defense that ranks (#28) overall and second-worst against the pass, just one yard better than the bottom-feeding Dallas defense.
The Packers offense still hasn’t found its full footing yet, but the offensive line looks solid (Love has been sacked only 10 times), and RB Jacobs has two touchdowns in three straight games. That should start to open up the passing game more, and Love must be salivating to face the second-worst pass defense. The Packers are (#1) in yards per pass attempt (5.82), their best since 2020.
Packers QB Love has been smart with the football too — only two interceptions all season. In fact, they’ve had three games with zero turnovers and the other three with just one.
The Steelers offense, meanwhile, has struggled to get good run blocking. Their backs are averaging just 95 rushing yards per game — one of only seven teams under 100. Steelers QB Rodgers ranks dead last in passing yards among all non-backup QBs this year. How bad has the run game been? The longest rush all season is only 15 yards.
Their top WR Metcalf has just 22 receptions, while three other teams’ top receivers have 50 or more. That’s staggering.
Will Ball Control Decide This Matchup Sunday Night?
It’s been a tale of one really good and one really bad offense so far. The Packers have won the time of possession battle in four of their six games, while the Steelers have done it in only one. Pittsburgh is also being crushed in total plays (394-318), putting the defense in tough spots — leading to tired legs and poor coverage against the pass.
Matchups to Watch Closely for This Prime Game of the Week
A few weeks ago, the Packers faced the surprisingly loaded Browns defense, and LT B. Jones was perfect against possibly the best pass rusher in the league, Browns DE M. Garrett. The past three weeks, the Packers offensive line has allowed QB Love to be sacked only three times.
The one thing the Steelers defense does well is rush the passer — they have 22 sacks, third-most in the league. They must get to Love and disrupt his rhythm to keep an extra defender in the box to slow down RB Jacobs.
When the Steelers have the ball on offense, they must find a way to slow down a Packers front seven that ranks third in the league in pressures. Superstar M. Parsons has finally found his stride after a disrupted offseason. Last week, Parsons had three sacks and 10 pressures.
Steelers QB Rodgers must continue to get the ball out quickly — he’s been one of the best at doing so, which is why he’s been sacked only nine times (5th fewest). The Packers, however, need to start forcing turnovers, as they’ve only managed one over the past three weeks.
Top Trends of the Week for This Sunday Night Affair
(1) Pitt Steelers: (19-10) on 9 days of rest under HC Tomlin
(2) Pitt Steelers: (24-8) wearing their alternate jerseys
(3) Pitt Steelers: (56-20) at home on Sunday Night games
(4) Pitt Steelers HC Tomlin: (21-7-3) as a home dog
(5) Pitt Steelers: (8-1) ATS last 9 games as home dog off road loss
(6) Green Bay Packers: (0-4) ATS last 4 games this season
(7) Sunday Night Totals: (2 overs) – (5 unders)
(8) Sunday Night Dogs Barking: Dogs cashed 7 of the last 8 games
(9) Green Bay Packers HC LaFleur: (20-10) last 30 vs. AFC teams
Final Pass
Ok, well, this is a very tough matchup, but I simply can’t side with this Steelers defense. They’re third-worst at covering tight ends and sixth-worst against wide receivers. The Packers offensive line has a solid pass block win rate (67%), and they’re cashing in at a rock-solid 71% in the red zone.
Facing the second-worst pass defense, combined with the Packers’ D-line dominance and Parsons’ hot streak, I just don’t think the Steelers have the playmakers to pull this out.
Packers by 7!
@GARYGREENEWINS @GARYWINS.COM for all his NFL stats pages.
