NFL WEEK 8 MONDAY NIGHT PREVIEW ~ COMMANDERS @ CHIEFS
WASHINGTON: (3-4) – (1-3 road) vs. Kansas City: (4-3) – (3-1 home)
WASH. offense: (#13) – (149R-196P) vs. Kansas City defense: (#5) – (106R-175P)
Kansas City offense: (#5) – (123R-247P) vs. WASH. defense: (#27) – (126R-238P)
VEGAS ODDS: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-11 ½) ~ TOTAL: (48)
TEAM TOTALS: WASHINGTON (18 ½) ~ KC CHIEFS (30 ½)
MNF MATCHUP OF ONE TEAMS STOCK SOARING & OTHER CRASHING!
Before the season started this game looked like one of the most exciting Monday Night Football games on the schedule. Now it’s looking more like Mismatch City as the Commanders are (1-3) last 4 and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) last 5. One defense (KC) is coming off one of the greatest performances I’ve ever seen and the other (Wash.) can’t seem to stop the kids in the neighborhood.
To add to the prime time spotlight losing some lustre the Commanders star young QB Daniels will miss this game. Being a lifelong Commanders fan the second his team blew an almost lock win 2 weeks ago over the Bears before a terrible missed handoff and fumble that turned into a miracle comeback win for the Bears I sensed the same thing I sensed for the Bears last year when they had the win all but sealed until allowing a miracle “Hail Mary” pass that deflated the team to lose 9 straight games after that loss. Well the loss streak is only 2 right now but I am fearful that it will be 5 after the next 3 games as they face 3 loaded offenses.
CHIEFS offense NOW BACK AT FULL STRENGTH TOUGH TO STOP!
Since speedy WR Worthy returned the offense has soared to (#3) in points scored (31 ½) and (#1) in point per drive, total yards per game (412) and the OL pressure rate allowed to just (22.6%) leading superstar QB Mahomes to a (71%) pass completion rate and (283) passing yards per game and (11 TD’s-1 interception). Add in they returned stud WR Rice back 2 weeks ago from his 6 game suspension and you can see this offense is now clicking on all cylinders and looking like the same blueprint of the Chiefs Super Bowl teams. There are simply too many stars to cover and this will be the flailing Commanders defense toughest test thus far this season.
CAN THE COMMANDERS DEFENSE STOP THIS CHIEFS LOADED “O”?
Nobody can predict injuries but when you come into a season with the oldest roster in the league you should expect that injuries may hit you more than most younger rosters. For the Commanders the ages of the players who have gone down already isn’t just older players but also some young ones too. They lost solid off season pickup DE Wise early on and now the next 2 best defensive line starters are hurt (DE Armstrong – sacks and pressures leader is out) and beast run stuffer DT Payne (likely to miss this game with bad toe) from a defense already dead last in the NFL allowing (7.8) yards per pass attempt.
The Commanders simply can’t cover anyone right now as they’ve allowed an atrocious eight plays of (40) yards or more. I have pulled my hair out watching them be totally out of position and getting burned for big gainers but too many times committing pass interference penalties on pass plays over 15 yards.
WASHINGTON MUST GET THE RUN GAME GOING AGAIN AT ELITE LEVEL!
The Commanders seemed to have found a hidden gem at running back with 7th round pick Croskey-Merritt having some huge games and providing a big spark to their offense. But the past 2 games (both losses) he’s been held in check to just (3.1) yards per rush. If he fails to rush for at least 70 yards here I can’t fathom how they can pull the huge upset. The Commanders run game still leads the league with (5.4) yards per carry and they have been sensational in the red zone (78%) this season.
THE DROPOFF FROM DANIELS TO MARIOTTA ISN’T WHAT YOU’D THINK!
We all know how great young Commanders QB Daniels has been since he was drafted last season with the second pick but longtime veteran QB Mariota will start here and shockingly there is no real dropoff as he’s led the Commanders to (34) points per game whereas Daniels led offense has only been at (22.4) points per game. Mariota also rushed 10x this season for not too shabby 94 rush yards and he should get a huge boost as #1 and #1A wide outs T. McLaurin and Deebo Samuel return to give him more elite weapons to pass the ball to.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT AFFAIR:
1). KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last 4 years at Home = (11 “OVERS – 22 “UNDERS”).
2). KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Just (1-6) ATS last 7 MNF games.
3). WASH. COMMANDERS: (8-0-1) ATS last 9 MNF Road games vs. AFC.
4). KC CHIEFS: Have gone (3 OVERS – 8 UNDERS) on MNF last 11x.
5). NFL FAVORITES OF 6 POINTS OR MORE IN 3RD STRAIGHT HOME GAME: 6 “OVERS” – 0 “UNDERS” – 1 PUSH
FINAL PASS:
Well this is by far the worst matchup possible for the Commanders facing a now clicking on all cylinders Chiefs team that last week held the ball for a stunning (42-18) minutes Time of Possession advantage and an even more dominant (76-29) Total Plays advantage. The Chiefs defense is the most rested defense maybe all time heading to the midway game of the season as they have spent only 90 minutes total on the field the last 4 games combined and overall the Chiefs offense has been on the field (140-100) minutes differential the past 4 weeks as well.
It would be one of the biggest “Upsets” in years for this flatlining Commanders defense (3 turnovers forced all season) and (0) the past 2 games to derail a KC offense that has not lost one fumble the entire season and only 1 Mahomes interception the past 5 games combined and a Chiefs offense that has won 5 straight Time of Possession battles and a Chiefs OL that has allowed Mahomes to be sacked just 5x the past 4 games with a now down 3 likely DL starters and a secondary that simply can’t cover anyone. When the defense is playing badly it puts a ton of extra pressure on the offense to do more and in most cases the only “more” is turning the ball over more. Hence the Commanders have turned the ball over 5x in the last 2 games.
PICK
The only major red flag for the Chiefs is they may be down 2 of their 5 starting offensive linemen but truth be told the backups have more than held their own as they’ve now played meaningful snaps already this season. The Chiefs have too much in their favor right now and with such a rested defense and an offense clicking now at full strength with all their playmakers this is almost a sure KC win. The other red flag is the Chiefs play the Bills next week so a look ahead to that game is very possible knowing Washington comes in reeling and missing so many key starters.
I really never lay double digits in the NFL so I would look to Prop bets. For those who love big paydays you can grab Wash. WR D. Samuel to gain 15 rushing yards or more at (+480). I will be rooting for my boys but fully expect to go to bed in a sad mood. Enjoy the game and have a winning new week ahead.
@GARYGREENEWINS
Go to: @GARYWINS for all his NFL stats pages Free!
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