Vegas Odds: Buffalo Bills (-7½ to -9) | Total: 49 / 49½
New England Patriots (2-2) | Buffalo Bills (4-0): The Undefeated Bills Look to Stay Perfect
The Buffalo Bills enter Week 5 as one of just two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. They own the league’s No. 1 offense and have scored 30 or more points in all four games this season. Quarterback Josh Allen threw his first interception last week but has otherwise been close to flawless.
Buffalo’s ground game has been dominant, averaging 164 rushing yards per game—the best mark in the league. Once defenses stack the box to slow that attack, Allen’s arm does the rest. He currently ranks sixth in passing yards, making this matchup a major test for a New England defense still learning to gel.
Running back James Cook has been unstoppable. He’s topped 100 scrimmage yards in every game, racking up 401 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Since 2024, Cook leads the NFL with 21 rushing TDs.
Maye Making Strides for the Patriots
The Patriots finally broke out offensively last week, helped by an 87-yard punt return touchdown (and almost another one from 61 yards). Rookie quarterback Drake Maye continues to look more comfortable every week. His poise, accuracy, and athleticism have him trending toward a Top 10 QB ranking by season’s end.
Maye has completed 75 percent or better in each of his past three games, topping 200 yards in all four starts. His ability to run has also stood out—he ranks second among quarterbacks with 98 rushing yards. The Bills defense, which has already allowed 199 rushing yards to opposing QBs, will have to account for his legs.
New addition Stefon Diggs had a huge game last week and will be fired up to face his former team in Orchard Park.
Game Plan and Matchup Keys
New England’s best path to success is on the ground. Buffalo’s defense ranks dead last against the run, allowing 164 yards per game, while ranking second against the pass (126 YPG). Expect the Patriots to run early and often—but they’ll still need Maye to throw for 200-plus to keep up with Allen’s pace.
The matchup between Maye and Allen is eerily even statistically, which means time of possession and turnovers will decide this one. Buffalo has controlled the clock in every game so far.
Despite their perfect record, the Bills have been one of the league’s three worst tackling teams, a flaw that has fueled their run defense struggles. Division games are always tight, and the past four meetings between these teams were all decided by seven points or fewer (7, 6, 3, and 4).
Key Betting Trends and Insights for Bills v Pats
- Fast Starter: The Bills have scored a touchdown on their opening drive in all four games.
- Totals Watch: The “Over” has hit in 4 of the last 5 and 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams.
- However, teams scoring 30+ points in four straight games have gone “Under” in 16 of the last 17 in that fifth game.
- The total for this matchup (49) is the highest ever in the series.
- Patriots have gone “Under” in 9 of their last 10 vs. winning teams.
- Home Dominance: The Bills have won 14 straight at Orchard Park.
- Prime Time Edge: Allen thrives under the lights—Buffalo is one of the toughest home teams in prime-time games.
- Defensive Reinforcements: The Bills expect to get back Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, both vital to improving their tackling and pass rush.
Final Pass
The Patriots haven’t won back-to-back games since 2022, and their big win over Carolina doesn’t change that they’re still rebuilding. Buffalo may have looked past New Orleans last week but won’t make the same mistake in this division rivalry.
Still, asking the Bills to win by double digits in a divisional matchup feels ambitious. Sometimes, the best play is no play at all—and this might be one of those times. Smart bettors know when to pass and live to fight another day.
Enjoy the game, and as always, bet smart.
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Gary Greene – Professional Sports Bettor
@GARYBETVEGAS
