NFL WEEK 5 – MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF WEEK ~ KC CHIEFS @ JAX JAGUARS
MONDAY OCTOBER 6, 2025
KC CHIEFS (2-2) ~ JAX JAGUARS (3-1)
VEGAS ODDS: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3 ½) ~ TOTAL: (45 ½)
Well the Chiefs rough start (0-2) has now turned into (2-2) and last week the offense scored on first 7 possessions and scored 37 points, most in over 2 calendar years. How did that happen after such a sluggish start? Well they got back their speedster WR X. Worthy and as they always say “SPEED KILLS”. Now it’s not just what a difference it makes to have a guy with his speed making Big plays (5 catches – 83 yards/ 2 rushes = 38 yards) but what he does changing opposing defenses. With him looming as a deep ball threat the defense is forced to keep an extra Safety in deep zone to stave out the huge pass gainers. It then opens up the 7-12 yard range for the teams other wideouts and allows QB Mahomes to excel with screen plays and then often if wideouts all go deep enough he can scramble for big gains. All off one speedy threat.
KC Offense has only committed 1 turnover (#1) all season (no fumbles lost) but has really started slowly with only 2 FG’s all season in the first qtr (6 total points). Mahomes has been sacked (7x) but again huge difference in how the offense operated the past 2 games after really struggling in the first 2 games. KC’s defense last week was vintage DC Spags playcalling as he sent the kitchen sink on Ravens QB Jackson blitzing him and getting pressure on just shy 50% of their snaps.
The Jaguars offense has also not lost a fumble all season and the O-Line has been fantastic protecting QB Lawrence (only sacked 3x) and really dominating the Line of Scrimmage helping the Run game flourish. Jags top rushed T. Etienne has been magnificent (6.1 yards per carry) and 394 rushing yards (#3 in NFL) has really somewhat masked the ineptness of QB Lawrence and the pass attack. Lawrence has completed only (58%) of his passes and top WR B. Thomas (5 drops already) and Rookie Travis Hunter not really making the big plays downfield just yet.
The Jaguars Defense to me has been one of the best surprises of this 2025 season as they are playing a much more physical brand of football this year and wow has it shown up in a huge way as they lead the league with 13 turnovers (9 INT’s/4 fumbles) and (7) sacks and lots of QB pressures. They have been really solid vs. Run (83rypg/#5) and last week a huge turnover on Niners QB Purdy to seal their third win of the season. They have allowed two (300+) yard Pass games though and can’t afford to allow Mahomes to light up the pass yards category. The Jags have had 3 games decided by a TD or less and the reason the top teams are winning close games is they slow their opponent when it matters most, inside the Red Zone. This year when the big plays have be needed the Jags Defense has been solid (#5 in Red Zone TD’s allowed/44%).
EVEN STEVENS: Both teams have allowed only 8 TD’s and the Jaguars are allowing 18 points per game and the Chiefs 19 points per game.
JAGUARS DOMINANCE: The Jags have gotten at least 3 turnovers and not allowed an opponent to get 400 total yards through 4 games.
CHIEFS DOMINANCE: KC has beaten the Jaguars 8 straight times and the last 3 by 8, 7 and 10 points.
MONDAY NIGHT “TOTALS” REPORT: So far we have had 3 “OVERS” and 3 “UNDERS” on the final game of the week (avg. points combined = 43 points per game). The Chiefs have played just 2 “OVERS” and 8 “UNDERS” in their past 10 MNF contests. The Jags last 5 vs. AFC West opponents have all gone “UNDER” the Total.
TEAMS BEST SCORING QUARTER: The second quarter has been the best for both teams with KC scoring 39 points and Jax scoring 44 points.
FINAL PASS: Well there is a lot to digest on this matchup and the Chiefs now look to be back on track on Offense with speedy Worthy back in the lineup and so you can almost toss the first few games as it was clear the Offense simply couldn’t open up the field and it was too much on Mahomes plate to do it all. Now he’s spreading the ball all over and wideouts are getting wide open on the well called screen pass plays.
The Jags must continue their insane pace creating turnovers but this is the “STEP UP” game for QB Lawrence and really for WR’s Thomas and Hunter. If KC can really slow the Jags vaunted run game then I worry that Lawrence can be sharp enough to match point for point with Mahomes.
This game leans more to a higher scoring game as the crowd should be enough juice to get their Offense lit up for the big spotlight and it’s clear Mahomes found his groove the past 2 weeks and will be playing with much less pressure now the team is back to even (2-2). The Jaguars know how to play a close game regardless who the opponent is, good or bad. I doubt this game disappoints us all.
FINAL SCORE: KC CHIEFS 27 – JAX JAGUARS 23
@GARYBETVEGAS
