NCAA baseball tournament bracket predictions about a week before selections, by D1Baseball

FILE - Florida coach Kevin O'Sullivan meets with umpires before the team's NCAA college baseball game against Florida A&M in Gainesville, Fla., in this Wednesday, March 4, 2020, file photo. Florida coach Kevin O’Sullivan might have the easiest or toughest job in college baseball this season. “Sully” has what’s widely considered the deepest and most talented team in the country. He can pencil in last year’s lineup and feel pretty good about his chances since Florida won 16 of 17 games before the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the 2020 season. He also has some daunting decisions ahead in terms of who to play and who to sit as the Gators try to pick up where they left off and remain the team to beat.(AP Photo/Gary McCullough, File)

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We say it each week, but the NCAA tournament picture is fluid until Selection Monday, and this week is no exception as there are several shakeups in the very latest D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections.

In the latest iteration of our projected field, the most notable changes are in the top eight, where there are two changes this week — Florida State and East Carolina are out after tough series losses over the weekend, while sizzling hot Georgia and Wake Forest entered the top eight this week.

The caveat to Wake and Georgia entering the top eight is that, particularly in the case of Wake, a series loss to NC State this weekend would knock them back out of the top eight and put it in a situation where it would need to win some games in the ACC tournament. We feel very confident about Georgia staying in the top eight with struggling Florida heading to Athens this weekend.

The final few host spots in the 9-16 seed range remain a classic beauty pageant of teams. Basically, what do you prefer from a metric and resume standpoint. This week, we removed South Carolina, UC Santa Barbara and Duke as hosts, while Oklahoma State, Wake Forest and Oregon State entered the Top 16 this week. We discussed the Deacs above, while the Pokes swept Texas Tech last weekend and remain in solid shape an RPI and standings standpoint. The Beavs also had a strong week with a home series sweep over UCLA and remain in solid shape from an RPI standpoint.

Our belief is that whoever wins the Pac-12 showdown between the Beavs and Wildcats this weekend will find their way to a host site. For now, we’re taking the Beavers straight up in that one. NC State would be another team to keep close tabs on this weekend. Should the Wolfpack win that series at home against Wake this weekend, they likely would find their way to the hosting line. As you can see, there’s a ton at stake this weekend, and most exciting, in conference tournaments, which begin next week.

The SEC leads all conferences with nine teams in the field, while the ACC and Big 12 each have eight teams in the field this week. The Sun Belt and Pac-12 are tied with four teams each, while the Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Coastal Athletic and Conference USA are all multi-bid leagues.

Our projections are assembled each week by the trio of Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers, and Aaron Fitt. Together, the trio has more than 60 years of experience covering college baseball and putting together regional projections.

Let’s unveil our projected field of 64 (parentheses indicate national seed):

Lexington Region Stillwater Region
1 Kentucky (1)1 Oklahoma State (16)
4 Sacred Heart4 Grand Canyon University
2 San Diego 2  DBU
3 Cincinnati3 Utah
Knoxville RegionCharlottesville Region
1 Tennessee (2)1 Virginia (15)
4 Bryant 4 Columbia
2 West Virginia  2 UC Santa Barbara
3 Xavier 3 Coastal Carolina
Fayetteville RegionStarkville Region
1 Arkansas (3)1 Mississippi State (14)
4 New Mexico 4 Lamar
2 Southern Miss2 Louisiana
3 Kansas State3 Georgia Tech
College Station RegionCorvallis Region
1 Texas A&M (4)1 Oregon State (13)
4 Oral Roberts4 Saint Louis
2 Texas2 Connecticut
3 Louisiana Tech3 TCU
Chapel Hill RegionGreenville Region
1 North Carolina (5)1 East Carolina (12)
4 Fairfield4 High Point
2 Alabama 2 Duke
3 UNC Wilmington3 UNC Greensboro
Clemson RegionTerre Haute Region
1 Clemson (6)1 Indiana State (11)
4 Wright State4 Bowling Green
2 South Carolina2 Arizona
3 College of Charleston3 Illinois
Athens RegionNorman Region
1 Georgia (7)1 Oklahoma (10)
4 Austin Peay4 Little Rock
2 NC State2 Nebraska
3 UCF3 Northeastern
Winston-Salem RegionTallahassee Region
1 Wake Forest (8)1 Florida State (9)
4 Army 4 Florida A&M
2 Oregon2 UC Irvine
3 Vanderbilt3 Troy

LAST FOUR IN: UCF, Northeastern, Utah, Cincinnati